rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 207
|
Post by rob62 on Jul 1, 2024 17:03:44 GMT 1
Choosing between Sunak and Starmer is like choosing between Rolf Harris and Jimmy Saville to babysit your kids. For me the thing to concentrate on is which individual is going to be best for the constituency. For example, the Lib Dems, Greens, Reform, etc. aren't going to be forming a government nor probably even entering into a coalition, but voters might feel that a particular candidate would be best for their constituency, or at least better than the sitting MP. |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 207
|
Post by rob62 on Jul 1, 2024 17:43:03 GMT 1
The Tories won't be forming a government either.The only real issue is how big the Labour majority is going to be, and which party will be the official opposition
|
|
|
|
Post by staffordshrew on Jul 1, 2024 18:14:01 GMT 1
The Tories won't be forming a government either.The only real issue is how big the Labour majority is going to be, and which party will be the official opposition No chickens to be counted, no complacency, people have to get out and vote for change. If they do lose, almost certainly the official opposition will be the Conservatives and a clear gap between the parties is needed to avoid stagnation and get on with a new agenda to revitalise Great Britain, free of so much internal party wrangling and fudging. |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 207
|
Post by rob62 on Jul 2, 2024 22:37:09 GMT 1
If you are fed up with 14 years of Tory failure and believe the country deserves better then don't be complacent and make sure you vote.
North and South Shropshire are battles between the Lib Dems and the Tories, Labour cannot win in these seats.
If you don't want to wake up to another career Tory MP with very little connection to the County then even if you are not instinctively a Lib Dem then please seriously consider voting tacticaly for Helen Morgan or Matthew Green.
|
|
|
|
Post by albionshrew on Jul 3, 2024 0:33:16 GMT 1
Well, here in Brighton Pavilion I am voting for Labour (Tom Gray). Though the Greens will probably win with their outsider, Sian Berry (former member of the London Assembly who quit after 3 days!) from up there in London Town - she has absolutely no connection with Brighton. The Greens have had a fortune to spend on leaflets and posted correspondence. VOTE LABOUR in Shrewsbury, my friends!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 5:52:34 GMT 1
NSFW, but I think Pie has covered most of the last 14 years
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 5:55:18 GMT 1
Reports 1 - 3 for those of you still mulling over who to give your vote to. Obviously still NSFW
|
|
|
|
Post by sheltonsalopian on Jul 3, 2024 11:10:49 GMT 1
Slight evidence of Labour dropping a few points and the Conservatives gaining, shy Tory effect in full flow I would imagine.
Still think we're looking at a substantial Labour majority, but I think the Conservatives won't lose as many seats as the polls predict, I see Reform in the 2-15 seats range which is pretty criminal if they get a vote share near 20%.
For what it's worth I'll be tactically voting Lib Dem in south shropshire, although even in the most optimistic projections the Tories are keeping the seat so I'm not holding my breath.
|
|
|
|
Post by Minormorris64 on Jul 3, 2024 11:55:51 GMT 1
Slight evidence of Labour dropping a few points and the Conservatives gaining, shy Tory effect in full flow I would imagine. Still think we're looking at a substantial Labour majority, but I think the Conservatives won't lose as many seats as the polls predict, I see Reform in the 2-15 seats range which is pretty criminal if they get a vote share near 20%. For what it's worth I'll be tactically voting Lib Dem in south shropshire, although even in the most optimistic projections the Tories are keeping the seat so I'm not holding my breath. Be interesting to see how many pledging allegiance to reform in the polls actually when it comes down to the pencil and cross , vote Conservative ? |
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on Jul 3, 2024 12:21:49 GMT 1
Slight evidence of Labour dropping a few points and the Conservatives gaining, shy Tory effect in full flow I would imagine. Still think we're looking at a substantial Labour majority, but I think the Conservatives won't lose as many seats as the polls predict, I see Reform in the 2-15 seats range which is pretty criminal if they get a vote share near 20%. For what it's worth I'll be tactically voting Lib Dem in south shropshire, although even in the most optimistic projections the Tories are keeping the seat so I'm not holding my breath. Think this is a good interpretation of the current situation. Still think it’s mad how the Conservatives have gone from an 80 seat majority in 2019 to now viewing a Labour majority of less than 250 looking like a moderately successful outcome for the Conservatives Think tactical voting will throw up some odd results across the country so the initial exit polls around 10pm on Thursday might not be that accurate, but as you say the most interesting aspect is probably how well the 15-20 vote share reform are showing in the polls translates into seats won, and what the long term impact will be of that on the Conservative/Reform relationship in the next Parliament. |
|
|
|
Post by staffordshrew on Jul 3, 2024 14:50:05 GMT 1
Slight evidence of Labour dropping a few points and the Conservatives gaining, shy Tory effect in full flow I would imagine. Still think we're looking at a substantial Labour majority, but I think the Conservatives won't lose as many seats as the polls predict, I see Reform in the 2-15 seats range which is pretty criminal if they get a vote share near 20%. For what it's worth I'll be tactically voting Lib Dem in south shropshire, although even in the most optimistic projections the Tories are keeping the seat so I'm not holding my breath. Be interesting to see how many pledging allegiance to reform in the polls actually when it comes down to the pencil and cross , vote Conservative ? It's surely got to be better for the country to probably end up with a meaningful opposition, rather than fly by night Nigel and co. The Tories have the back up, the structure, the history, but need to sort out the festering sore of exactly where they stand which has blighted the last 14 years of their governence. |
|
|
|
Post by sheltonsalopian on Jul 3, 2024 15:43:58 GMT 1
Slight evidence of Labour dropping a few points and the Conservatives gaining, shy Tory effect in full flow I would imagine. Still think we're looking at a substantial Labour majority, but I think the Conservatives won't lose as many seats as the polls predict, I see Reform in the 2-15 seats range which is pretty criminal if they get a vote share near 20%. For what it's worth I'll be tactically voting Lib Dem in south shropshire, although even in the most optimistic projections the Tories are keeping the seat so I'm not holding my breath. Be interesting to see how many pledging allegiance to reform in the polls actually when it comes down to the pencil and cross , vote Conservative ? Agreed - already evidence in a few polls now of the Reform and Labour vote dropping and Conservatives rising, wouldn't be shocked if the final result is closer than a lot of people think, Tory loyalty at the ballot box is very underplayed |
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 3, 2024 18:19:05 GMT 1
Be interesting to see how many pledging allegiance to reform in the polls actually when it comes down to the pencil and cross , vote Conservative ? Agreed - already evidence in a few polls now of the Reform and Labour vote dropping and Conservatives rising, wouldn't be shocked if the final result is closer than a lot of people think, Tory loyalty at the ballot box is very underplayed I genuinely don’t know a single person who has admitted they will vote Conservative. I know plenty voting Reform UK or Labour. Time will tell but I’d guess the pensioner vote will make up a big slice of the 20-25% the Conservatives get |
|
|
|
Post by gobowenshrew on Jul 3, 2024 19:37:35 GMT 1
Be interesting to see how many pledging allegiance to reform in the polls actually when it comes down to the pencil and cross , vote Conservative ? Agreed - already evidence in a few polls now of the Reform and Labour vote dropping and Conservatives rising, wouldn't be shocked if the final result is closer than a lot of people think, Tory loyalty at the ballot box is very underplayed I think the polls tend to narrow the nearer you get to polling day and the side that are allegedly anticipating a landslide win suddenly appear a bit 'squeaky bum time'. Living in South West Shropshire/border territory by some distance the most overwhelmingly represented placards in rural areas seems to be that of Liberal Democrats - if that's anything to go by/possibly not. My prediction is Labour will end up with 420ish seats (somewhere short of the over-egged 480 even 500 figure I keep seeing) but still enough to constitute an absolute whitewash. I also don't for one minute believe any of the hysteria that the Tories may not return as Her Majesty's Opposition or that Reform will take more than 3 or 4 seats. Either way, brace yourselves. The Tories absolutely deserve an annihilation but the biggest majority since the 1800s is far more likely down to the ineptitude of the current government rather than an endorsement or Keir Starmer. Which is why I think a few of their seats will slip through the net. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 19:54:44 GMT 1
Agreed - already evidence in a few polls now of the Reform and Labour vote dropping and Conservatives rising, wouldn't be shocked if the final result is closer than a lot of people think, Tory loyalty at the ballot box is very underplayed I think the polls tend to narrow the nearer you get to polling day and the side that are allegedly anticipating a landslide win suddenly appear a bit 'squeaky bum time'. Living in South West Shropshire/border territory by some distance the most overwhelmingly represented placards in rural areas seems to be that of Liberal Democrats - if that's anything to go by/possibly not. My prediction is Labour will end up with 420ish seats (somewhere short of the over-egged 480 even 500 figure I keep seeing) but still enough to constitute an absolute whitewash. I also don't for one minute believe any of the hysteria that the Tories may not return as Her Majesty's Opposition or that Reform will take more than 3 or 4 seats. Either way, brace yourselves. The Tories absolutely deserve an annihilation but the biggest majority since the 1800s is far more likely down to the ineptitude of the current government rather than an endorsement or Keir Starmer. Which is why I think a few of their seats will slip through the net. JP has done a video for that too. "Arguably the Tories have done more to get Labour in power than Labour have" sums it up perfectly. |
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 3, 2024 20:28:31 GMT 1
Incredible poll - a record making majority incoming for sub 40% of the vote and absolute apathy towards Sir Keir and his manifesto
|
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on Jul 3, 2024 21:35:47 GMT 1
Incredible poll - a record making majority incoming for sub 40% of the vote and absolute apathy towards Sir Keir and his manifesto Think its also very likely that a new Labour Government will have a very short honeymoon period when then take over as well. There are very serious issues brewing in the coming months with the prisons, with spaces likely to dry up in weeks and courts years behind on cases; many A&E units are working at 100% capacity; the (likely) abondonment of the Rwanda scheme will leave nearly 100,000 asylum claims to be cleared, while the coming months will be peak for crossings from France; adult social care is facing a staffing crisis heading into the summer; many Councils are facing bankrupcy and the continued middle east crisis and Ukraine conflict likely to escalate. People will also want to see trains improve; rivers less polluted and their energy bills go down and wages rise. Whilst the lack of Governmnet action on these is behind the Conservatives decline, these all become Labours problems on Friday, and I suspect even with a big majority support for Labour will soon decline if things are not seen to improve quite quickly - a difficult enough task in a booming economy but even tougher in the economic climate they inherit. In 12 months time Sunak may well be pleased its an election he lost |
|
|
|
Post by ar**chairfan on Jul 3, 2024 21:47:06 GMT 1
Agreed - already evidence in a few polls now of the Reform and Labour vote dropping and Conservatives rising, wouldn't be shocked if the final result is closer than a lot of people think, Tory loyalty at the ballot box is very underplayed I genuinely don’t know a single person who has admitted they will vote Conservative. I know plenty voting Reform UK or Labour. Time will tell but I’d guess the pensioner vote will make up a big slice of the 20-25% the Conservatives get We don't know one another, but I shall definitely be voting Conservative! There is little doubt that the Conservative share of the vote will be considerably reduced, but there is every chance that Labour's share will be somewhat lower than that achieved in Sir Tony Blair's first victory, and we could end up with a government supported by less than 40% of the electorate.... |
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on Jul 3, 2024 21:55:54 GMT 1
I genuinely don’t know a single person who has admitted they will vote Conservative. I know plenty voting Reform UK or Labour. Time will tell but I’d guess the pensioner vote will make up a big slice of the 20-25% the Conservatives get We don't know one another, but I shall definitely be voting Conservative! There is little doubt that the Conservative share of the vote will be considerably reduced, but there is every chance that Labour's share will be somewhat lower than that achieved in Sir Tony Blair's first victory, and we could end up with a government supported by less than 40% of the electorate.... Do you think in that situation and the likely gap between vote share and seat number for Reform, that the centre right parties may reconsider their position on Proportional Representation in the future? I know they have generally supported First Past the post, but faced with having 40% of the votes between them and yet likely fewer than 150 seats between them PR might become a more attractive option in their future plans? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 5:51:15 GMT 1
Can I just express the need for everyone to make the effort to go out and vote today. I don't care who you vote for, just spend 5 minutes of your day to put a cross in a box. People fought and died for your right to vote and not being bothered is an insult to their memories.
Vote Tory. Vote Labour. Vote Lib Dem. Vote Green. Vote Reform. Vote Monster Raving Loony. Vote for a guy in a dolphin suit if you want to, but never, ever come back on here in the coming months and years criticising the government if you haven't even bothered to take part in this.
|
|
|
|
Post by stuttgartershrew on Jul 4, 2024 7:31:49 GMT 1
Incredible poll - a record making majority incoming for sub 40% of the vote and absolute apathy towards Sir Keir and his manifesto Think its also very likely that a new Labour Government will have a very short honeymoon period when then take over as well. There are very serious issues brewing in the coming months with the prisons, with spaces likely to dry up in weeks and courts years behind on cases; many A&E units are working at 100% capacity; the (likely) abondonment of the Rwanda scheme will leave nearly 100,000 asylum claims to be cleared, while the coming months will be peak for crossings from France; adult social care is facing a staffing crisis heading into the summer; many Councils are facing bankrupcy and the continued middle east crisis and Ukraine conflict likely to escalate. People will also want to see trains improve; rivers less polluted and their energy bills go down and wages rise. Whilst the lack of Governmnet action on these is behind the Conservatives decline, these all become Labours problems on Friday, and I suspect even with a big majority support for Labour will soon decline if things are not seen to improve quite quickly - a difficult enough task in a booming economy but even tougher in the economic climate they inherit. In 12 months time Sunak may well be pleased its an election he lost Lets just hope things settle down for a while at least anyhow. No further conflict and certainly not on European soil, no more pandemics and whilst I have nothing against any campaign to rejoin the EU, Brexit doesn't flare up again. I think that would certainly help any incoming government. Whilst the Tories have made enough of a mess of things themselves, I will always maintain that with Brexit, the pandemic and war in Ukraine they have had one of the toughest times of any peacetime government. It would be good if the focus could now shift a little more to the things you list. Whether Labour will make a decent go of it, however? Who knows. But I don't have a great amount of confidence. |
|
|
|
Post by ar**chairfan on Jul 4, 2024 7:52:21 GMT 1
We don't know one another, but I shall definitely be voting Conservative! There is little doubt that the Conservative share of the vote will be considerably reduced, but there is every chance that Labour's share will be somewhat lower than that achieved in Sir Tony Blair's first victory, and we could end up with a government supported by less than 40% of the electorate.... Do you think in that situation and the likely gap between vote share and seat number for Reform, that the centre right parties may reconsider their position on Proportional Representation in the future? I know they have generally supported First Past the post, but faced with having 40% of the votes between them and yet likely fewer than 150 seats between them PR might become a more attractive option in their future plans? As I have stated on numerous other threads, I am not averse to a change to some form of PR, but NEITHER major Party has shown great enthusiasm for PR, for their own reasons; personally, I am open to persuasion. The difficulties with PR seem to be with unstable governments (post-war Italy) or coalitions where an extreme party, of "Right" or "Left" is able to exert an influence far in advance of its popular support (Israel, or even, dare I say, Scotland). PR can bring about the fragmentation of the existing political coalitions (the Conservative and Labour parties) leading to ever greater political dissent and dispute, putting Democracy itself under pressure. |
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on Jul 4, 2024 7:53:19 GMT 1
Very busy at my local polling station this morning, everyone up early to vote in Shrewsbury
|
|
|
|
Post by ar**chairfan on Jul 4, 2024 8:16:05 GMT 1
On the day that millions of people are casting their votes, I draw everyone's attention to Isaac Asimov's short story "Franchise".
Continuing with the Asimovian theme, he once said "the saddest aspect of life today is that science gathers knowledge much more quickly than society gathers wisdom",or words to that effect. How apposite!
|
|
|
|
Post by dibblydobbly on Jul 4, 2024 9:15:48 GMT 1
Very busy at my local polling station this morning, everyone up early to vote in Shrewsbury Empty in north shrops, but they did say they were busy at 7am |
|
|
|
Post by MetaShrew on Jul 4, 2024 9:40:55 GMT 1
Starmer with Kane and the Euro trophy outside No. 10... July 15th... Nurse! Nurse! Where are my tablets?!
|
|
|
|
Post by staffordshrew on Jul 4, 2024 12:20:36 GMT 1
I’ll be voting Reform. Couldn’t possibly bring myself to vote for either Sunak or Starmer. Although part of me wants to vote Labour to help get rid of the odious Kawczynski, who seems more dislikable than both Sunak and Starmer combined. I’d be genuinely interested to hear the thoughts of those on here who choose to vote for him election after election. As I understand it there is only one candidate in Shrewsbury that can topple the 'odious Kawczynski'. So if you vote Reform and wake up to find Kawczynski is still your MP then you'll know that you helped put him back there. |
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 4, 2024 12:40:19 GMT 1
I’ll be voting Reform. Couldn’t possibly bring myself to vote for either Sunak or Starmer. Although part of me wants to vote Labour to help get rid of the odious Kawczynski, who seems more dislikable than both Sunak and Starmer combined. I’d be genuinely interested to hear the thoughts of those on here who choose to vote for him election after election. I too have voted for Reform shortly before lunchtime, steady queue but nothing abnomal for a General election To answer your latter question, I voted for the agreeably odious Kawczynski to keep Corbyn out and ensure we left the EU and canned that awful 2nd referendum lark - ironically what Sir Keir supported... But blind loyalty in politics in politics is stupid, he's done very little for us in 19 years and I don't think i need to go over old ground about the Tories the last 5 years... time to punish DK and the Tory party |
|
|
|
Post by sheltonsalopian on Jul 4, 2024 12:47:26 GMT 1
Sticking with this prediction:
North Shropshire - Lib Dem
Shrewsbury - Labour
South Shropshire - Conservative
Telford - Labour
Wrekin - Conservative
Also had a fiver on Reform to win a few select seats at 21/1 assuming that the size of their vote is being underplayed.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 14:11:11 GMT 1
Sticking with this prediction: North Shropshire - Lib Dem Shrewsbury - Labour South Shropshire - Conservative Telford - Labour Wrekin - Conservative Also had a fiver on Reform to win a few select seats at 21/1 assuming that the size of their vote is being underplayed. South Shropshire to be liberal. Wrekin to be Labour |
|
