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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 9, 2020 15:42:56 GMT 1
319 increasing at the rate of 10% per day for 62 days is in the region of 117,000 on 10th May. The NHS gets into the state we are currently seeing in northern Italy when the figure gets to a little over a 10th of that.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 9, 2020 15:43:32 GMT 1
south east cost ambulance services are doing home testing a nurse and paramedic in a car , this seems more sensible than people wandering around a hospital lost whilst looking for a portacabin.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 9, 2020 16:36:13 GMT 1
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Post by Minormorris64 on Mar 9, 2020 17:46:40 GMT 1
23513 people tested 278 Cases = 1.18232% 278 Cases in UK , 3 Deaths so a rate of 1.07913% And that is Since January 29th so an average day = 7.13 cases per day Not saying it isn't that serious but in the UK those figures do give a bit of perspective Still hardly ground breaking figures yesterday 273 cases today 319 at that rate my calculations say it will be 60M by may 10th dont quote me though  |
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Post by Minormorris64 on Mar 9, 2020 17:48:02 GMT 1
"50 - 70 percent of the global population" may become infected. |
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Post by frankwellshrews on Mar 9, 2020 18:01:40 GMT 1
319 increasing at the rate of 10% per day for 62 days is in the region of 117,000 on 10th May. The NHS gets into the state we are currently seeing in northern Italy when the figure gets to a little over a 10th of that. Don't some of those cases resolve before then though? I will have to see if I can dig it out but I have seen some quite good analysis which suggests the nhs can potentially cope with up to several thousand new cases a day, provided a majority resolve within 2 weeks and the stats around expected hospitalization hold true. |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 9, 2020 18:11:30 GMT 1
Blimey, now Dublin have made the decision to cancel the St Patrick's day parade.
I didn't get to read it but it was mentioned on Marr on Sunday that a story in the Times suggested that at worse, the death toll may reach 100,000. But because there are currently so many unknowns its difficult to predict exactly what will come about.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 9, 2020 18:30:11 GMT 1
319 increasing at the rate of 10% per day for 62 days is in the region of 117,000 on 10th May. The NHS gets into the state we are currently seeing in northern Italy when the figure gets to a little over a 10th of that. Don't some of those cases resolve before then though? I will have to see if I can dig it out but I have seen some quite good analysis which suggests the nhs can potentially cope with up to several thousand new cases a day, provided a majority resolve within 2 weeks and the stats around expected hospitalization hold true. They will but if you have about 15,000 beds to play with (and that is high end - there may be beds but it doesn't mean that they are appropriate for acute care) then you want people in and out within a week. That will be touch and go as there is potential for organ failure similar to septic shock. So you need to take measures to flatten the curve. |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 9, 2020 18:39:07 GMT 1
Also mentioned on Marr that if worst comes to worst then the armed forces can deploy field hospitals. No idea what capacity that might add, mind. And whether it would be enough if things did start getting out of hand.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 9, 2020 18:40:38 GMT 1
"50 - 70 percent of the global population" may become infected. That is correct. Interesting that that is the one phrase that you pick out. What he is saying, and I know he is only an expert, is that the massive potential that the virus has can be diminished by the steps that we take. Here's a few other points he makes: "I do not think that it is a crazy analogy to compare this to World War 2." "I think the most concerning thing about this virus is the combination of infectiousness and the ability to cause severe disease or death. And we have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combined those two qualities in the same way"Here is the latest thoughts of our galaxy brain Prime Minister Get Coronavirus Done
Take it on the chin. The problem being it's not a fat load it's a virus. But sure let's thin out the herd. I also provide links to the definitions of two very similar sounding words: AlarmingAlarmist |
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Post by MetaShrew on Mar 9, 2020 19:00:39 GMT 1
Seems odd that ALL flights to infected regions, if not whole countries, weren't already knocked on the head this week. Repatriate people, sure. But no new return journeys, perhaps? Yeh, dont worry about any airline or airport staff, or others that might come into contact with them in being repatriated. Like most measures being suggested, it wont make much if any difference to the spread (or otherwise ) at all. Think my point has been a little misinterpreted – I only meant repatriate those who categorically MUST be repatriated for whatever reason, and who have been tested and do not have the virus. In any case, we can't be too far away from widespread flight cancellations now. Still think people should have been stopped from setting out on new return journeys as of last week. |
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Post by Pilch on Mar 9, 2020 20:16:20 GMT 1
I heard that the corona beer sales have taken a hit, not sure if its true or not, but if it is I reckon these guys would be taking a huge hit if they were still around  |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 10, 2020 7:55:45 GMT 1
Well Italy in complete lock down now and we're all now wondering when the same will hit Germany. Most people I speak to think the chances are that we could well be in the same situation as soon as next week. Not sure about that but anyhow, slowly coming home about just how serious this is now getting.  And whilst Johnson spoke about striking a balance, you do wonder if the same decision is going to have to be taken in the UK too (if things continue as is). Crazy days... Just off to get some bog roll in...  These are the main points of the lock down when looking to Italy (and so perhaps elsewhere in the coming weeks)... Don't travel (unless it's urgent): Travel is only allowed for "urgent, verifiable work situations and emergencies or health reasons". People who have tested positive for COVID-19 must not leave their homes for any reason, while anyone with a fever or respiratory symptoms are strongly encouraged to stay at home and limit social contact, including with their doctor.
Gatherings cancelled: The latest decree prohibits "all forms of gatherings in public places or sites open to the public" - going further than the rules that went into force over the weekend in large parts of northern Italy. This includes sporting events such as football games in the top-flight Serie A.
Venues shuttered: To encourage people to stay in, bars and restaurants are only allowed to open between 6am and 6pm, and only if it is possible to keep a distance of at least a metre between customers.
School's out: Schools and universities are closed, and all exams cancelled. Religious institutions will stay open, as long as people can stay a metre from one another - but ceremonies such as marriages, baptisms and funerals are banned. |
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Post by sheltonsalopian on Mar 10, 2020 10:13:20 GMT 1
Read from a few sources that by looking at the number of infections and trends that the UK is about two/three weeks behind where Italy is currently, so although sporting events haven't been cancelled yet, would expect them to be within the next week if cases keep rising like they are.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 10, 2020 11:00:36 GMT 1
Read from a few sources that by looking at the number of infections and trends that the UK is about two/three weeks behind where Italy is currently, so although sporting events haven't been cancelled yet, would expect them to be within the next week if cases keep rising like they are. Someone put this together... |
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 10, 2020 11:46:07 GMT 1
What is Japan doing that the others aren't?
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Post by staffordshrew on Mar 10, 2020 12:19:23 GMT 1
What is Japan doing that the others aren't? Don't know, (what has Italy done "wrong"). Apart from "Japan is paying $80 a day to parents to stay home and look after their children following the closure of schools". If Japan can keep it up and also take advantage of the low oil price, they are going to come out of this in a strong position. |
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Post by scooter on Mar 10, 2020 14:37:13 GMT 1
This puts Wolves game on Thursday in doubt. He was also at the Forest v Milwall game last Friday
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 10, 2020 16:46:06 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/news/health/2020/03/10/coronavirus-first-case-is-diagnosed-in-shropshire/"The patient has recently travelled back to England from Italy, Telford & Wrekin Clinical Commissioning Group's board was told. It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin." i dont understand why the goverment has not stoped flights from China/ iran / italy. new Zealand stoped flights from china on the 3rd of february anyone returning from Iran and Italy are in monitored self Isolation. they have five confirmed cases all were part of a family who came back from Iran. it seems New Zealands measure are working a lot better than ours
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 10, 2020 17:04:20 GMT 1
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 10, 2020 17:11:05 GMT 1
I'm hoping that warmer weather will make the virus dormant like the flu virus but until then I'm not going to go to any more games. There are a numnber of people who sit near me who are in the 60s and older and it's just not fair to put them at risk.
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Post by Dancin on Mar 10, 2020 17:11:47 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/news/health/2020/03/10/coronavirus-first-case-is-diagnosed-in-shropshire/"The patient has recently travelled back to England from Italy, Telford & Wrekin Clinical Commissioning Group's board was told. It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin." i dont understand why the goverment has not stoped flights from China/ iran / italy. new Zealand stoped flights from china on the 3rd of february anyone returning from Iran and Italy are in monitored self Isolation. they have five confirmed cases all were part of a family who came back from Iran. it seems New Zealands measure are working a lot better than ours "It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin." Where are the " drive-Throughs"? |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 10, 2020 17:52:41 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/news/health/2020/03/10/coronavirus-first-case-is-diagnosed-in-shropshire/"The patient has recently travelled back to England from Italy, Telford & Wrekin Clinical Commissioning Group's board was told. It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin." i dont understand why the goverment has not stoped flights from China/ iran / italy. new Zealand stoped flights from china on the 3rd of february anyone returning from Iran and Italy are in monitored self Isolation. they have five confirmed cases all were part of a family who came back from Iran. it seems New Zealands measure are working a lot better than ours "It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin." Where are the " drive-Throughs"? no idea ; the aproach seems to vary fromarea to area,in brighton they have a nurse and a paramedic in protective clothing testing you at home. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Mar 10, 2020 18:03:18 GMT 1
It comes as Shropshire Community NHS Trust said it was carrying out home and community testing and was setting up ‘drive-through’ testing centres across Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin."
Where are the " drive-Throughs"?[/quote]
McDonalds lol "Would you like a Coronavirus check with that Sir?"
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Post by cheggersdrinkspop on Mar 10, 2020 18:21:32 GMT 1
BBC News: Coronavirus: Financial impact of measures on EFL clubs could be 'devastating' BBC News - Coronavirus: Financial impact of measures on EFL clubs could be 'devastating' www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51804544Interesting views from some EFL clubs regarding the issue of playing games behind closed doors. Without sounding selfish, for season ticket holders would this mean a refund on the matches you have already paid for, which could cause even more financial problems, or maybe the clubs could pay for follow for those affected. |
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Post by cheggersdrinkspop on Mar 10, 2020 18:22:02 GMT 1
I mean ifollow
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 10, 2020 20:12:24 GMT 1
Well we're starting to see the impact now. Because of known cases one of my lads school is closed for the next two days and the Mrs has been told to stay off work for the next two days too. So those who have been in direct contact with those known to have the virus need to keep away for two weeks, everyone else for two days. Not sure about the two days but I guess its all about prevention (as best as possible, trail and error).
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 10, 2020 20:23:34 GMT 1
The mortality rate is about 3.5% The flu virus is less than 1%. I still find it odd that young children are not disproportionately affected but that is what the data says. So if 6.5 million people get ill with it that is in the region of 230,000 fatalities. So this is why its spread needs to be reduced because the fatality numbers involved are potentially big. Currently the number of cases doubles every six days. Given the mortality rate we get to 100,000 deaths worldwide sometime early April (I think). The head of Public Health England said that 3.5% figure isn't a mortality rate, it's simply the number of reported cases divided by the number of fatalities. Mortality rate modelling requires a calculation to be made of mild, unreported cases as well. He maintains that current modelling still shows 1% to be the upper end of the likely mortality rate. Still a huge cause for concern (and action) but substantially lower than 3.5%. When you look at any number above 1% the effect of compounding is massive. It appears that the flu virus mortality rate is well below 1% and a mortality rate just in excess of 1% is a multiple of it. Currently the UK number of people testing positive is on course to double every 4-5 days. Interesting comment on death rate in this video |
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 10, 2020 20:27:45 GMT 1
Internationally the number of people infected is said to double every six days with 10% of cases requiring hospitalisation. Currently 244 people in the UK have been confirmed. The latest figures I can find for the number of beds in the NHS is 127,000 with an occupancy rate of 88%. How many days before there is no bed capacity in the NHS? At the current rate of growth towards the end of the third week of April. Whether patients' stay in hospital is one week or two weeks doesn't matter. Which is what you would expect because the big number is the growth rate of positive tests. We could do with those 40 extra hospitals. In the meantime I'd imagine that a number of people will be discharged from hospital and scheduled in patient appointments cancelled. |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 11, 2020 10:14:07 GMT 1
Just to clear up what Johnson has been accused of saying (as its included here, its in the news and there is a fair bit on social media at the minute too) he didn't say he supported the approach of allowing the virus to spread and just "taking on the chin"... Here is the transcript of what Boris Johnson said on This Morning about the new coronavirusEven from watching the shortened clip its pretty clear that he is talking about a balance between the two; between the one theory of simply allowing the virus to spread and introducing draconian measures in order to try and stop the spread (as in closing schools, sporting events etc.). Its clear that within this interview he is not advocating the theory of just allowing the virus to spread and taking it on the chin. |
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