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Post by northwestman on May 29, 2024 13:21:50 GMT 1
I'm afraid that in my experience most of the electorate are stupid, and can be easily influenced.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2024 14:27:08 GMT 1
Giving 16 year olds a vote is one of the most stupid ideas I've heard in a long time, and a pure cynical way to get more votes from Labour The Tories could always come up with a plan to appeal to young people if they want their votes. I'm not sure National Service is gonna be enough. |
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Post by mattmw on May 29, 2024 19:32:01 GMT 1
Just about a week into the campaign and the polls have hardly moved so far with Labour on around 44% and Conservatives 23%, which suggests the policies announced so far aren't having much affect on the electorate
Guess the next week with the first leaders debate and launch of the party manifesto's will be the next key events that might change the polling. I'd expect any big announcements from the Conservatives in the next week as they really need to make up ground with some eye catching policies popular with the middle ground. If they go into the last few weeks of the campaign 20 points behind in the polls its going to make campaigning on the ground very tough
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rob62
Midland League Division Two
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Post by rob62 on May 29, 2024 20:56:54 GMT 1
I think a lot of people are bored already.
At least Ed Davey injects a bit of humour while making a serious point.
Everyone thinks Labour will win although I expect apathy to be the big winner, with a low turn out
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Post by northwestman on May 29, 2024 21:52:34 GMT 1
Let's face it - most people I've talked to don't want to vote for either of the parties, but thanks to Starmer's cynical and self serving blocking of any chance of bringing in PR, the electorate are in a no win situation, which I suspect will result in many just sitting on their hands and not voting.
That said, I'll definitely be voting for Helen Morgan, who needs every vote she can get, as the bookies reckon that Helen and the Conservative candidate, Simon Baynes, are running neck and neck.
And for those of you thinking of voting for Baynes, here's some background information you might wish to consider:
Simon Robert Maurice Baynes (born 21 April 1960) is a British Conservative politician who served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Justice and Tackling Illegal Migration from 8th July to 8th September 2022.
Baynes was born in Lesbury, Northumberland, the son of Sir John Christopher Malcolm Baynes, 7th Baronet and Shirley Maxwell Baynes.
He stood as the Welsh Conservative candidate in Montgomeryshire in 2005, finishing second behind incumbent Liberal Democrat MP Lembit Öpik. He unsuccessfully sought the Conservative nomination for the seat of South Staffordshire in 2010, losing out to future cabinet minister Gavin Williamson. He then contested Dwyfor Meirionnydd at the 2010 general election, and the same seat in the 2011 National Assembly for Wales Election, both times without success.
He has contested elections in Clwyd South on three occasions. He first contested Clwyd South in the 2016 Welsh Assembly election. In 2017 he contested the marginal Westminster seat. On the 1st two occasions he finished second. He was elected to Parliament for Clwyd South at the 2019 general election. Wiki.
He has the unenviable record of losing to the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru AND Labour - 3 times at a General Election (2005, 2010, 2017) and 2 times at the Welsh Assembly Elections (2011, 2016).
He lasted precisely 2 months in his role as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Justice and Tackling Illegal Migration from 8th July to 8th September 2022. So that went well then.
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Post by northwestman on May 29, 2024 22:06:46 GMT 1
Here's the list of betting odds for all the constituencies. www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituenciesAmazingly, Labour are at present 1/6 to take Shrewsbury! Conservatives are 4/1. North Shropshire it's 8/11 Lib Dems, Even money the Conservatives. |
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2024 22:32:33 GMT 1
I'm afraid that in my experience most of the electorate are stupid, and can be easily influenced. Wow, that's a sweeping statement if ever there was one. |
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Post by northwestman on May 29, 2024 22:45:30 GMT 1
I'm afraid that in my experience most of the electorate are stupid, and can be easily influenced. Wow, that's a sweeping statement if ever there was one. 'The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter'. Winston Churchill. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_information_voter |
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Post by davycrockett on May 30, 2024 8:04:27 GMT 1
Agree many 16 year olds (not all) don't know their arse from their elbow.A truly cynical and misguided idea from Labour in their quest for power at all costs Many over 18 year old don’t either, can you believe they elected Boris as PM and many would again 😂 |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on May 30, 2024 10:36:17 GMT 1
I'm afraid that in my experience most of the electorate are stupid, and can be easily influenced. Wow, that's a sweeping statement if ever there was one. It is but I do think there is some truth to it. I wouldn't say most but certainly an awful lot. I think that's become pretty evident over the last few years. Not too sure how much time you spend on social media and of course we must remember that the likes of Twitter, Tik Tok, etc. are not the real world but for anyone who spends time on there you will see how easily people are misinformed, led, influenced, etc. They will buy into anything that fits the narrative they happen to have fallen for even when information, statistics, etc. will prove otherwise. And unfortunately very much spoon fed by partisan and biased media who are very much dependent and happy to cater for whatever echo chamber they serve. |
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2024 11:32:15 GMT 1
Wow, that's a sweeping statement if ever there was one. It is but I do think there is some truth to it. I wouldn't say most but certainly an awful lot. I think that's become pretty evident over the last few years. Not too sure how much time you spend on social media and of course we must remember that the likes of Twitter, Tik Tok, etc. are not the real world but for anyone who spends time on there you will see how easily people are misinformed, led, influenced, etc. They will buy into anything that fits the narrative they happen to have fallen for even when information, statistics, etc. will prove otherwise. And unfortunately very much spoon fed by partisan and biased media who are very much dependent and happy to cater for whatever echo chamber they serve. So it's a generation thing then? Excuse my ignorance but I don't do social media to any real extent. |
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Post by armchairfan on May 30, 2024 12:36:36 GMT 1
I thought the press report was that ONE of them was a local Councillor, not that the crowd was....correct me if I'm wrong, and apologise if your assertion is inaccurate, please. As for your parting shot, please try and refrain from that sort of language. It’s true - all questions were by local councillors 👍 Possibly true, but my question was whether the CROWD were all local councillors! |
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Post by stuttgartershrew on May 30, 2024 14:09:10 GMT 1
It is but I do think there is some truth to it. I wouldn't say most but certainly an awful lot. I think that's become pretty evident over the last few years. Not too sure how much time you spend on social media and of course we must remember that the likes of Twitter, Tik Tok, etc. are not the real world but for anyone who spends time on there you will see how easily people are misinformed, led, influenced, etc. They will buy into anything that fits the narrative they happen to have fallen for even when information, statistics, etc. will prove otherwise. And unfortunately very much spoon fed by partisan and biased media who are very much dependent and happy to cater for whatever echo chamber they serve. So it's a generation thing then? Excuse my ignorance but I don't do social media to any real extent. I don't think we should underestimate the impact social media has had for sure so to an extent but I was just using it as an example as to where and how people are easily misled, influenced, etc.👍 |
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Post by staffordshrew on May 30, 2024 14:32:43 GMT 1
Do you know how much debt this country is in? 3 trillion pounds,growing with interest every second! www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/There is no money for hsirbrained schemes to please tha party faithful. For example,at 18 I was already a significant contributor to taxes and growth. If better citizens are required then it needs to be done earlier, with youth clubs and agencies. |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Jun 2, 2024 12:41:50 GMT 1
Here's the list of betting odds for all the constituencies. www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituenciesAmazingly, Labour are at present 1/6 to take Shrewsbury! Conservatives are 4/1. North Shropshire it's 8/11 Lib Dems, Even money the Conservatives. The labour candidate for Shrewsbury is certainly out and about, normally I just get a leaflet but this we had a large number of door knickers canvasing opinions, so I had the usual phanflet, a letter , meanwhile a phanflet from the conservatives, no canvassing opinion so far ,no liberal democrats. Ideally we could do with the liberals and labour come up with some agreement to get the best chance of getting rid of the useless present incumbent. |
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Post by mattmw on Jun 2, 2024 13:41:36 GMT 1
Here's the list of betting odds for all the constituencies. www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituenciesAmazingly, Labour are at present 1/6 to take Shrewsbury! Conservatives are 4/1. North Shropshire it's 8/11 Lib Dems, Even money the Conservatives. The labour candidate for Shrewsbury is certainly out and about, normally I just get a leaflet but this we had a large number of door knickers canvasing opinions, so I had the usual phanflet, a letter , meanwhile a phanflet from the conservatives, no canvassing opinion so far ,no liberal democrats. Ideally we could do with the liberals and labour come up with some agreement to get the best chance of getting rid of the useless present incumbent. Aside from the popularity or not of the exisiting MP, one of the other changes with the Shrewsbury election division is that the constintuancy has changed, having lost the Atcham bit of it, which really favours Labour in this election The rural area south of Shrewsbury around Cross Houses, Atcham and indeed even part of the new housing on Oteley Road is now in the South Shrophire constintuancy, rather than the old Shrewsbury and Atcham. Traditionally the Conservative vote was very strong in that rural area (They have a Conservative Shropshire Councillor) so that vote has now been lost which is why its a far less safe seat for the Conservatives. Shrewsbury Town Council has been run by labour for some time so the Labour vote in the town is pretty strong. A knock on affect is that South Shropshire is now more likely to remain Conservative at the election. With Shrewsbury being a target seat for the Labour party they can also put more money and resources into campaiging, and as you say there is clearly a lot of Labour publicity going out, and even an office on Wyle Cop to support the campaign I don't think any official deal will be done by Labour, Greens and Liberals about campaigning in the area, but realistically its already clear which opposition parties are targeting which Conservatives seats, and I think the other parties are happy to remain in the back ground in this area. |
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on Jun 2, 2024 17:28:54 GMT 1
Latest opinion poles I have seen, suggest that The Lib Dems will retain North Shropshire, and that Labour will take Shrewsbury and Telford.
This polling is in line with my instinct taking to people in these constituencies.
While there may be no formal deal, the Lib Dems are not campaigning hard in Shrewsbury, and Labour is not campaigning hard in North Shropshire.
To ensure the Tories are defeated tactical voting will play a key role
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Post by mattmw on Jun 3, 2024 13:15:10 GMT 1
Nigel Farage making an "Emergency Election Statement" at 4pm today
Unlikely to be another pact with Conservatives so maybe he is deciding to stand as an MP having previously said he wouldn't?
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Post by zenfootball2 on Jun 3, 2024 13:18:03 GMT 1
Latest opinion poles I have seen, suggest that The Lib Dems will retain North Shropshire, and that Labour will take Shrewsbury and Telford. This polling is in line with my instinct taking to people in these constituencies. While there may be no formal deal, the Lib Dems are not campaigning hard in Shrewsbury, and Labour is not campaigning hard in North Shropshire. To ensure the Tories are defeated tactical voting will play a key role [br Let us hope so] |
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Post by sheltonsalopian on Jun 3, 2024 15:38:47 GMT 1
The labour candidate for Shrewsbury is certainly out and about, normally I just get a leaflet but this we had a large number of door knickers canvasing opinions, so I had the usual phanflet, a letter , meanwhile a phanflet from the conservatives, no canvassing opinion so far ,no liberal democrats. Ideally we could do with the liberals and labour come up with some agreement to get the best chance of getting rid of the useless present incumbent. Aside from the popularity or not of the exisiting MP, one of the other changes with the Shrewsbury election division is that the constintuancy has changed, having lost the Atcham bit of it, which really favours Labour in this election The rural area south of Shrewsbury around Cross Houses, Atcham and indeed even part of the new housing on Oteley Road is now in the South Shrophire constintuancy, rather than the old Shrewsbury and Atcham. Traditionally the Conservative vote was very strong in that rural area (They have a Conservative Shropshire Councillor) so that vote has now been lost which is why its a far less safe seat for the Conservatives. Shrewsbury Town Council has been run by labour for some time so the Labour vote in the town is pretty strong. A knock on affect is that South Shropshire is now more likely to remain Conservative at the election. With Shrewsbury being a target seat for the Labour party they can also put more money and resources into campaiging, and as you say there is clearly a lot of Labour publicity going out, and even an office on Wyle Cop to support the campaign I don't think any official deal will be done by Labour, Greens and Liberals about campaigning in the area, but realistically its already clear which opposition parties are targeting which Conservatives seats, and I think the other parties are happy to remain in the back ground in this area. To highlight the ridiculousness of this, my garden is in the new Shrewsbury ward and my house is in South Shropshire. Makes very little sense to me as I doubt a South Shropshire MP is going to take too much interest in us. |
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Post by mattmw on Jun 3, 2024 16:25:12 GMT 1
Nigel Farage making an "Emergency Election Statement" at 4pm today Unlikely to be another pact with Conservatives so maybe he is deciding to stand as an MP having previously said he wouldn't? Farage taking over as Leader of Reform for election and next 5 years too, and standing as candidate in the (previously) safe Conservative seat of Clacton Guessing after Trumps conviction last week going to the USA to support his presidential campaign isn’t as lucrative as staying and fighting the UK election |
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Post by Valerioch on Jun 3, 2024 16:29:11 GMT 1
Superb news
He's come out firing here
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Post by staffordshrew on Jun 3, 2024 17:26:58 GMT 1
Superb news He's come out firing here Should split the Tory vote. 😂 |
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Post by Valerioch on Jun 3, 2024 17:46:11 GMT 1
Superb news He's come out firing here Should split the Tory vote. 😂 As Farage said, this election has long been a foregone conclusion, its over, a Labour win god help us. Added to the fact there is about the width of a fag paper between the 2 leaders/main parties this time, it really doesn't matter if a vote gets split or who gets elected. 2 cheeks of the same arse |
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Post by mattmw on Jun 3, 2024 18:42:18 GMT 1
Should split the Tory vote. 😂 As Farage said, this election has long been a foregone conclusion, its over, a Labour win god help us. Added to the fact there is about the width of a fag paper between the 2 leaders/main parties this time, it really doesn't matter if a vote gets split or who gets elected. 2 cheeks of the same arse As I said earlier in the thread I think what happens to the centre right parties post the general election is probably one of the most interesting aspects of the election. Makes sense for Reform to focus their resources on getting a couple of MP's rather than just get 10-12% nationally by spreading the campaigning, but have no MP's at the end of it. Reform winning a couple of seats - which seems quite possible, gives them a foothold in Parliament post election, and a defeated Conservative party could well see a few defections of Conservative MP's to Reform after the election too. Then they have a real start of a new centre right party to step in, and maybe go a bit further to the right than the current Conservative party is able to stomach. Farage can certainly put that message across far better than Sunak can. Also my £50 on Reform to get 1 or more seats at 5/4 I made a few weeks ago is looking much better value! |
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Post by Valerioch on Jun 3, 2024 19:38:56 GMT 1
As Farage said, this election has long been a foregone conclusion, its over, a Labour win god help us. Added to the fact there is about the width of a fag paper between the 2 leaders/main parties this time, it really doesn't matter if a vote gets split or who gets elected. 2 cheeks of the same arse As I said earlier in the thread I think what happens to the centre right parties post the general election is probably one of the most interesting aspects of the election. Makes sense for Reform to focus their resources on getting a couple of MP's rather than just get 10-12% nationally by spreading the campaigning, but have no MP's at the end of it. Reform winning a couple of seats - which seems quite possible, gives them a foothold in Parliament post election, and a defeated Conservative party could well see a few defections of Conservative MP's to Reform after the election too. Then they have a real start of a new centre right party to step in, and maybe go a bit further to the right than the current Conservative party is able to stomach. Farage can certainly put that message across far better than Sunak can. Also my £50 on Reform to get 1 or more seats at 5/4 I made a few weeks ago is looking much better value! All the polling including today has Reform getting 0 seats, off an average of 12% of the votes - it’ll be interesting to see if the polling changes after todays announcement - I hope you win your bet One thing this does show is how rank the FPTF system is - Lib Dems 9% could equal 50 seats, Reform 12% 0 seats - that is not democracy |
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Post by mattmw on Jun 3, 2024 20:29:28 GMT 1
As I said earlier in the thread I think what happens to the centre right parties post the general election is probably one of the most interesting aspects of the election. Makes sense for Reform to focus their resources on getting a couple of MP's rather than just get 10-12% nationally by spreading the campaigning, but have no MP's at the end of it. Reform winning a couple of seats - which seems quite possible, gives them a foothold in Parliament post election, and a defeated Conservative party could well see a few defections of Conservative MP's to Reform after the election too. Then they have a real start of a new centre right party to step in, and maybe go a bit further to the right than the current Conservative party is able to stomach. Farage can certainly put that message across far better than Sunak can. Also my £50 on Reform to get 1 or more seats at 5/4 I made a few weeks ago is looking much better value! All the polling including today has Reform getting 0 seats, off an average of 12% of the votes - it’ll be interesting to see if the polling changes after todays announcement - I hope you win your bet One thing this does show is how rank the FPTF system is - Lib Dems 9% could equal 50 seats, Reform 12% 0 seats - that is not democracy I'd based my original bet on Richard Tice standing in Boston, which had a 75% vote in support of Brexit back in 2016, and while its nominally a safe Conservative seat, the fact Labour are so far ahead in the polls the Conservative vote could well switch to Reform almost as a mini by-election protest vote. Tice is around 3/1 to win at the moment. In theory Lee Anderson is another potetial as the sitting MP for Reform at Ashfield but his odds have drifted and Labour now firm favourites for this seat, so its useful having Farage as a back up. My £10 on a minority Conservative Government at 20/1 is looking like one of my many failed bets though as those odds have drifted out to 25/1 in the last few days. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2024 7:11:48 GMT 1
Should split the Tory vote. 😂 As Farage said, this election has long been a foregone conclusion, its over, a Labour win god help us.Added to the fact there is about the width of a fag paper between the 2 leaders/main parties this time, it really doesn't matter if a vote gets split or who gets elected. 2 cheeks of the same arse Firstly there is no god.
Secondly although Labour under Blair and Brown made some mistakes (Iraq, PFI, student loans among the biggest ones) their stint in power was largely good for economy. Please don't throw out the Global Economic Crisis as the fault of Labour, the clue is the first word, global.
14 years of ideological austerity, billions spaffed up the wall on dodgy PPE etc, peerages for lackeys and mates (including the son of a senior KGB member), the richest getting richer while the poor choose between heating and eating, the 2nd highest income inequality in Europe, councils (many of which are Tory controlled) on the brink of or in bankruptcy, illegal migration and people just disappearing into the black economy is higher than it has ever been due to huge cutbacks in the very department that is responsible for dealing with asylum claims. I could go on and on with this sad litany of Tory failures over the last 14 years, but I think there's enough there to be going on with.
If Labour is such a bad thing, perhaps you could point out the benefits of another 5 years of Tory leadership or even anything that they have got right in the last 14 years. Oh, don't bother with Covid as pretty much every other country in Europe had as good or better outcomes than the UK, in many cases their furlough schemes were better than ours and they didn't suffer anywhere near the amount of fraudulent claims either.
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Post by darkshrew on Jun 4, 2024 9:17:26 GMT 1
Latest opinion poles I have seen, suggest that The Lib Dems will retain North Shropshire, and that Labour will take Shrewsbury and Telford. This polling is in line with my instinct taking to people in these constituencies. While there may be no formal deal, the Lib Dems are not campaigning hard in Shrewsbury, and Labour is not campaigning hard in North Shropshire. To ensure the Tories are defeated tactical voting will play a key role I wish they would really push the tactical voting: Labour left alone to get Shrewsbury + Telford Lib Dems left alone to get South Shropshire + North Shropshire Splitting the vote to get Kawczynski elected again would be repugnant. I just cannot understand anybody voting for him - the local conservative party members should hang their heads in shame for sticking with him when he has amply demonstrated what a poor MP he is for the constituency, and what a reprehensible human being he is in general. Known as the least intelligent MP in the commons is really going some when he is up against the likes of Looney Liz. |
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Post by Worthingshrew on Jun 4, 2024 12:26:01 GMT 1
Superb news He's come out firing here Anyone who supports Trump doesn’t deserve support. BBC should be asking him whether he supports the rule of law and due legal process. We know lying Boris doesn’t. |
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