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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 18:52:49 GMT 1
I am a bit surprised that this matter hasn't yet reached the pages of our little forum. What does anyone think of the present situation? I am confident that some feel it to be both interesting and possibly rather dangerous.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 10, 2022 19:12:22 GMT 1
I am a bit surprised that this matter hasn't yet reached the pages of our little forum. What does anyone think of the present situation? I am confident that some feel it to be both interesting and possibly rather dangerous. I think Putin wants the Soviet Union back.
I think supplying gas, especially to Germany, has given him power and money he should not have.
I think Putin loves having a place on the world stage, being the centre of attention.
I think anything is possible, but trying to get pro-Putin people into the Ukraine government is most likely.
We have to watch this very closely - Macron may have done some good, I don't think Putin has any regard whatsoever for Truss and Johnson.
Always have to watch the yanks too, far away from being affected by sanctions and Biden followed Trump in a disasterous Afghanistan withdrawal.
That enough?
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Post by SeanBroseley on Feb 10, 2022 19:42:37 GMT 1
I'm very concerned - as we all should be - about the build up of Russian troops on the Russian border.
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Post by ssshrew on Feb 10, 2022 19:44:24 GMT 1
Yes I am concerned too.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 20:03:03 GMT 1
I'm very concerned - as we all should be - about the build up of Russian troops on the Russian border. Yes indeed, Sean, but without in any way trying to defend Mr Putin's behaviour, the Russian perspective is rooted firmly in the historical invasions from the west (first Napoleon, then Hitler) and the resultant fear; of course, these feelings have were fanned by successive Soviet leaders to ensure public support when the economy wasn't performing very well in comparison with the West, and it seems to me that Mr Putin, the old Cold War veteran that he is, is resorting to similar tactics. As it happens, I don't believe that serious hostilities will break out....both sides will surely recognise the black depths of the abyss. Hopefully, anyway.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 20:33:46 GMT 1
I am a bit surprised that this matter hasn't yet reached the pages of our little forum. What does anyone think of the present situation? I am confident that some feel it to be both interesting and possibly rather dangerous. I think Putin wants the Soviet Union back.
I think supplying gas, especially to Germany, has given him power and money he should not have.
I think Putin loves having a place on the world stage, being the centre of attention.
I think anything is possible, but trying to get pro-Putin people into the Ukraine government is most likely.
We have to watch this very closely - Macron may have done some good, I don't think Putin has any regard whatsoever for Truss and Johnson.
Always have to watch the yanks too, far away from being affected by sanctions and Biden followed Trump in a disasterous Afghanistan withdrawal.
That enough?
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Post by tdk on Feb 10, 2022 20:41:15 GMT 1
If Russia invades and gets away with it expect China to invade Taiwan
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 20:42:42 GMT 1
I think Putin wants the Soviet Union back.
I think supplying gas, especially to Germany, has given him power and money he should not have.
I think Putin loves having a place on the world stage, being the centre of attention.
I think anything is possible, but trying to get pro-Putin people into the Ukraine government is most likely.
We have to watch this very closely - Macron may have done some good, I don't think Putin has any regard whatsoever for Truss and Johnson.
Always have to watch the yanks too, far away from being affected by sanctions and Biden followed Trump in a disasterous Afghanistan withdrawal.
That enough?
Can't dispute much of that, especially your first line, which I think is a "given" and, I believe, admitted by Mr Putin himself, though I may be wrong on that. Whilst there may well be nuanced differences of opinion across the Western allies as to the way forward, there is broad agreement as to aims.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 20:45:16 GMT 1
If Russia invades and gets away with it expect China to invade Taiwan Not an unfair observation!
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Post by zenfootball2 on Feb 10, 2022 20:59:03 GMT 1
If Russia invades and gets away with it expect China to invade Taiwan yes they will but then the world has turned a bline eye to china stealing oil fields from vietnam. they even stoped malaysia expolring oil in there own territorial waters www.rfa.org/english/news/vietnam/oil-china-07132020173206.html"Vietnam has frequently come under pressure from China to cease oil exploration off its southern coast, in waters China unlawfully claims on the basis of “historic rights.” China maintains that any resource exploration in the South China Sea must be done with Chinese"
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lynch
Midland League Division One
Posts: 252
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Post by lynch on Feb 10, 2022 21:28:47 GMT 1
Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014, annexed Crimea and “got away with it”. They also support the separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Any country wanting to join NATO cannot be in an open conflict, a reason I suspect why Russia has taken past action to stop Ukraine joining NATO. ~20% of Ukraines population view themselves as Russian and there are long standing links between the Little, White & Great Rus. That Russia would be happy with either joining EU or NATO is at best naive. The European Western plains has always been a militarily weak point and why Russia focus, not to mention most other border states are pro Russian. I don’t know if Putin had appetite to invade. Whilst the posturing maybe popular Russian soldiers in body bags won’t be. But US and NATO have ramped up rhetoric I think in some respects to make Putin looks like he’s backed down if nothing happens.
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lynch
Midland League Division One
Posts: 252
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Post by lynch on Feb 10, 2022 21:55:50 GMT 1
I don’t think China will invade Taiwan. Pitting Chinese against Chinese in finishing the civil war is unlikely to finish well. Like HK, CCP will play the long game using non military means.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 10, 2022 22:03:37 GMT 1
Russia already invaded Ukraine in 2014, annexed Crimea and “got away with it”. They also support the separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Any country wanting to join NATO cannot be in an open conflict, a reason I suspect why Russia has taken past action to stop Ukraine joining NATO. ~20% of Ukraines population view themselves as Russian and there are long standing links between the Little, White & Great Rus. That Russia would be happy with either joining EU or NATO is at best naive. The European Western plains has always been a militarily weak point and why Russia focus, not to mention most other border states are pro Russian. I don’t know if Putin had appetite to invade. Whilst the posturing maybe popular Russian soldiers in body bags won’t be. But US and NATO have ramped up rhetoric I think in some respects to make Putin looks like he’s backed down if nothing happens. Your first paragraph regarding past Russian actions is noted and understood. However, your comment about the 20% of Ukrainians viewing themselves as "Russian" and implying that is important, leads to the obvious inference that 80% - 80% - do not: I am sure that you are not suggesting that that minority, substantial though it may be, should hold some sort of veto to buttress their view; that is even on the assumption that they would back Putin at all. At the end of the day, Ukraine is a sovereign entity, and Russia shouldn't expect to dictate its policies from outside.
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lynch
Midland League Division One
Posts: 252
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Post by lynch on Feb 10, 2022 22:30:16 GMT 1
Global superpowers, even ex ones, don’t tend to easily accept loss of influence particularly on those now independent countries with long historical ties & significant ethnic populations. I don’t think Russian Nationalism could accept the loss of, what it considers an integral part of itself, to “the enemy” and which it has spent much effort since the split of USSR to maintain influence. As such I think Putin will continue to do what is needed to keep Ukraine out of NATO and use these links as rationale to do so. You can read Putins own views on subject @ en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
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Post by champagneprince on Feb 10, 2022 22:45:29 GMT 1
My fiancee is Belarusian and I have spent three months of the year last year and two months in 2020. They are the funniest, most peace loving people you could ever meet and are p**sed off that Russian troops are currently in Belarus carrying out exercises.
Nobody she knows believes there will be an invasion of Ukraine. But they are still p**sed off and concerned that such a large scale exercise is going on in their country.
Unfortunately, they are led by a complete psycho (Lukashenko), who is basically Putin's puppet. He rigged that last election there, just as he's rigged every election since the mid-'90's. Stand against him and you end up in prison...or worse. Work for him and you're rewarded with a very generous lifestyle and seemingly, the more brutal you are the more you are rewarded.
Of course, I fear (much more than her) that Belarusians will be dragged into a war they do not want. The people don't want to fight, unless of course they are loyal to the president.
Aged 56, she was of course a Soviet girl. Whilst we were all here watching Threads and The Day After and fretting that Protect and Survive would flash onto our TV screens at any moment, live in Soviet Russia hardly acknowledged little old Britain. They certainly never saw us as the enemy in any way. One of the most shocking things for me was that she was shocked that we saw her as the enemy!
So, I am worried, very worried. But she isn't, she just thinks Putin is giving the west a prod with a big stick to stay away from pressurising Ukraine. She sees Putin as a 'very clever man' and doubts he will invade.
She did also add 'But you can never tell what he is thinking, he is usually one step ahead in his thoughts'.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Feb 10, 2022 22:45:54 GMT 1
There are reasons for hope: 1) Putin will not be around for ever. 2) The ruling classes in France and Germany are not as wedded to the worldview of the US ruling classes as the UK ruling classes are. 3) The Ukraine leadership knows that whatever the outcome it has to exist with a shared border with a much larger country.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Feb 10, 2022 23:34:55 GMT 1
I'm very concerned - as we all should be - about the build up of Russian troops on the Russian border. Yes indeed, Sean, but without in any way trying to defend Mr Putin's behaviour, the Russian perspective is rooted firmly in the historical invasions from the west (first Napoleon, then Hitler) and the resultant fear; of course, these feelings have were fanned by successive Soviet leaders to ensure public support when the economy wasn't performing very well in comparison with the West, and it seems to me that Mr Putin, the old Cold War veteran that he is, is resorting to similar tactics. As it happens, I don't believe that serious hostilities will break out....both sides will surely recognise the black depths of the abyss. Hopefully, anyway. You only have to go back 30 years. To the collapse of the Soviet Union that was exacerbated by Europe's and America's attitude that prompted the collapse of all structures in Russian society and a huge death toll as a consequence. It emphasised that the enemy were Russians rather than communists. Current Russian society and politics grew out of that.
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Post by belfastshrew on Feb 11, 2022 0:34:54 GMT 1
There are reasons for hope: 1) Putin will not be around for ever. That could be a bad thing too though. Did he not change the rules around the Russian Premiership to give him another spell as leader? Did he not try to poison his opposition? And I think he stopped a lot of parties from standing in the last election. If you refer to his age, some people do desperate things in their last few moments. However I don't believe any of that is true. I agree with the Belarusian lady in that he's a very wise man. I think he's threatening war to drive up fuel prices, that will make his country rich for a while. Or maybe I am way off the mark. It sure has europes leaders in a fluff.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 11, 2022 11:11:13 GMT 1
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 11, 2022 12:03:37 GMT 1
You may, or not, have a point regarding the UK's diplomatic heft, but Sergei Lavrof's comments about the talks were translated as "like the deaf meeting the mute"; if, therefore, the Foreign Secretary was indeed " deaf" it means that the other participant, Mr Lavrof, must have been "mute"...QED! Yet, for some reason, the headline was wholly directed at Liz Truss's alleged deficiencies.
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Post by kenwood on Feb 11, 2022 12:16:33 GMT 1
Putin is definitely not happy with the thought of Ukraine joining NATO although I believe that cause for concern for him has gone away. I remember Kennedy and Khrushchev , the Cuba crisis in 1962 and the Bay of Pigs incident. The nearest we have come to a nuclear war with Kennedy far from happy with Russian missiles being placed in Cuba . Thankfully an agreement of sorts was reached with Russia removing their nuclear missiles and Kennedy agreeing as part of the deal not to invade Cuba and to remove America ‘s missiles from Turkey and Italy . Naturally Putin wouldn’t want to see a similar situation arise if Ukraine were to join NATO with the possibility of missiles and armed forces butted up against the border with Russia. Strangely some good in small parts came out of the ‘62 confrontation with the realisation that Russian commanders on the ground could have authorised a nuclear strike without direct reference to the Kremlin . It’s bloody frightening when you think of it . However , the installation of a” hot line “ between the two countries was established to prevent this happening in future situations . I don’t think Russia will invade Ukraine , at least I pray not . I rather agree with Belfastshrew . As for our part in all this , well , Liz Truss has come in for ridicule and whilst I think she is lightweight and not up to the position she holds I think whoever we send to talk with Lavrov would get the same treatment . Let’s all hope that common sense prevails .
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 11, 2022 12:19:36 GMT 1
You may, or not, have a point regarding the UK's diplomatic heft, but Sergei Lavrof's comments about the talks were translated as "like the deaf meeting the mute"; if, therefore, the Foreign Secretary was indeed " deaf" it means that the other participant, Mr Lavrof, must have been "mute"...QED! Yet, for some reason, the headline was wholly directed at Liz Truss's alleged deficiencies. Sadly, the report goes on to describe the press conference which did not go at all well:
"At the press conference that followed a stony faced Lavrov said he had spoken in detail about the security guarantees Russia wants from NATO. But with Liz Truss standing barely feet away, looking equally glacial, he described that discussion in terms that were far from diplomatic. “It was like a conversation with a deaf person,” he said. “Who is here, but doesn’t hear.”
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 11, 2022 12:35:14 GMT 1
You may, or not, have a point regarding the UK's diplomatic heft, but Sergei Lavrof's comments about the talks were translated as "like the deaf meeting the mute"; if, therefore, the Foreign Secretary was indeed " deaf" it means that the other participant, Mr Lavrof, must have been "mute"...QED! Yet, for some reason, the headline was wholly directed at Liz Truss's alleged deficiencies. Sadly, the report goes on to describe the press conference which did not go at all well:
"At the press conference that followed a stony faced Lavrov said he had spoken in detail about the security guarantees Russia wants from NATO. But with Liz Truss standing barely feet away, looking equally glacial, he described that discussion in terms that were far from diplomatic. “It was like a conversation with a deaf person,” he said. “Who is here, but doesn’t hear.” But, by his own definition, Sergei was "mute", indicating that he had nothing to say, despite Russia's tanks formed up on Ukraine's lawn....
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Post by northwestman on Feb 11, 2022 12:35:34 GMT 1
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 11, 2022 18:01:40 GMT 1
On the face of it this sounds a lot better than Truss: " defence secretary Ben Wallace said he is not as optimistic as he used to be about quelling the crisis on the Ukrainian border.
He told a press conference in Moscow:
I think the direction of travel has been against the direction of the diplomatic travel over the last few weeks.
We’ve seen continued build-up of forces as we’ve seen a build up of diplomacy, and you would hope that, actually... one goes up, one goes down - and I think that is why my optimism is not as (optimistic) as I used to be, or can be.
And I’m hoping that the beginning today is an effort to try and see if there is a way forward to make sure we do de-escalate.
We’ll keep trying. I think the international community is trying very hard – obviously President Macron’s visit, Prime Minister Johnson spoke to President Putin... recently as well. And indeed, I think the new Chancellor of Germany is coming to visit next week.
I think it is very important that we give the Russian government, give them all a chance to provide the reassurance they are seeking about the intentions of Nato, but also to give us the airtime to hear from them their assurances that they have no intention of invading Ukraine as well".
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Post by venceremos on Feb 11, 2022 18:13:48 GMT 1
Russia's is an odious regime but that's hardly unique in the world.
I don't believe they'll invade Ukraine. If that had been their aim they could have triggered it long before the western world was paying close attention. But why would they? They still remember how their invasion of Afghanistan resulted in a costly war against a guerilla opposition using weapons supplied by the west and resulting in an ignominious defeat and withdrawal.
Ukraine is an enormous country. It'd take more than 100,000 Russian troops to invade it. If Russia invaded and over the country by force, they'd face years of civil war and fighting an opponent using guerilla and "terrorist" tactics. They don't want that.
What they want is to reaffirm their sphere of influence and to keep Ukraine, with its substantial Russian population, out of the EU and out of NATO. Were the positions reversed, I'm sure the US would be doing the same (look at its treatment of Cuba).
If Russia were to invade, NATO would arm Ukraine but wouldn't send troops.
It's a stand off, but I think very unlikely to end in the sort of war some are talking about. And the UK's position in all of this is a minor one. We don't matter that much - we'll follow the US line, as usual. Meanwhile, it's a great photo-op for Queen Elizabeth Truss and a useful distraction for Johnson, so expect them to continue talking up the great "crisis".
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Feb 12, 2022 9:05:50 GMT 1
Sadly, the report goes on to describe the press conference which did not go at all well:
"At the press conference that followed a stony faced Lavrov said he had spoken in detail about the security guarantees Russia wants from NATO. But with Liz Truss standing barely feet away, looking equally glacial, he described that discussion in terms that were far from diplomatic. “It was like a conversation with a deaf person,” he said. “Who is here, but doesn’t hear.” But, by his own definition, Sergei was "mute", indicating that he had nothing to say, despite Russia's tanks formed up on Ukraine's lawn.... Perhaps Truss is still learning her trade but Lavrov has form anyhow and I think its clear that he and Putin would have much preferred to see others making up the UK government, more so after what we saw with Salisbury and the positioning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal. And I do think that goes for one or two in the UK too who seem to be lapping up his criticism of Truss. I mean it could have been worse... DIANE ABBOTT: NATO TO BLAME FOR UKRAINE CRISIS
Hardly surprising to see Starmer looking to distancing himself from that and good to see him voice his support for NATO... Under my leadership, Labour’s commitment to Nato is unshakable
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Post by zenfootball2 on Feb 12, 2022 10:09:33 GMT 1
for me this is Putin been Putin stir thing up with the ukraine , try to gain some concessions, be in the center of attention, deflect attention from the mess at home and screw the west by increasing gas prices and increasing oil prices.the price of oil was averaging at $59 in 2019 it is $93 now
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Post by martinshrew on Feb 12, 2022 10:33:40 GMT 1
But, by his own definition, Sergei was "mute", indicating that he had nothing to say, despite Russia's tanks formed up on Ukraine's lawn.... Perhaps Truss is still learning her trade but Lavrov has form anyhow and I think its clear that he and Putin would have much preferred to see others making up the UK government, more so after what we saw with Salisbury and the positioning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal. And I do think that goes for one or two in the UK too who seem to be lapping up his criticism of Truss. I mean it could have been worse... DIANE ABBOTT: NATO TO BLAME FOR UKRAINE CRISIS
Hardly surprising to see Starmer looking to distancing himself from that and good to see him voice his support for NATO... Under my leadership, Labour’s commitment to Nato is unshakableShe needs to be put on the sidelines with comrade Corbyn, totally out of touch with reality and far from being the first time.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 12, 2022 11:00:01 GMT 1
Russia's is an odious regime but that's hardly unique in the world. I don't believe they'll invade Ukraine. If that had been their aim they could have triggered it long before the western world was paying close attention. But why would they? They still remember how their invasion of Afghanistan resulted in a costly war against a guerilla opposition using weapons supplied by the west and resulting in an ignominious defeat and withdrawal. Ukraine is an enormous country. It'd take more than 100,000 Russian troops to invade it. If Russia invaded and over the country by force, they'd face years of civil war and fighting an opponent using guerilla and "terrorist" tactics. They don't want that. What they want is to reaffirm their sphere of influence and to keep Ukraine, with its substantial Russian population, out of the EU and out of NATO. Were the positions reversed, I'm sure the US would be doing the same (look at its treatment of Cuba). If Russia were to invade, NATO would arm Ukraine but wouldn't send troops. It's a stand off, but I think very unlikely to end in the sort of war some are talking about. And the UK's position in all of this is a minor one. We don't matter that much - we'll follow the US line, as usual. Meanwhile, it's a great photo-op for Queen Elizabeth Truss and a useful distraction for Johnson, so expect them to continue talking up the great "crisis". I do agree with your general thrust here, but reference to "spheres of influence" is indicative of 1960s cold War thinking, and we have moved on from that, quite rightly, given that such an approach was the major factor in the Cuban crisis; however, it seems to me that such thinking still exists in Russia, and, perhaps, more worryingly, in certain parts of the Labour Party, prompting Sir Keir Starmer's recent comments. As I have said, I can appreciate the Russian obsessions - though not condone their actions - purely in an historical context, but without presuming to judge the feelings of the Russian people at large ("riddles, mysteries and enigmas" spring to mind), my own view is that Russian LEADERSHIPS, haven't realised that the world is a different place from the 1960s. The problem which Russia thinks it has is not the prospect of another from the west but, more likely, a fear of real democratisation, as governing such a vast and diverse (ethnically and geographical) singularity would be impossible; the whole thing would split and fall apart, something which no Russian leader would possibly countenance. The stated Russian position, that Ukraine must not be permitted to join NATO is a straw-dog distraction from these deeper fears, I believe; slowly, over the past few decades, Russia has seen former Warsaw Pact/Comecon countries reflecting the more or less democratic will of their electorates (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic/Slovakia) by moving away from a centrally-controlled, authoritarian system of governance; thus doesn't sit well in the Kremlin, for the reasons I suggest above, and that Kremlin view has been sustained,since the days of the Soviet Union, by the apparent fondness which the Russian people have for "strong leadership" I am forced to conclude that any wrong move by either side may well precipitate the break-up of Russia as a functioning entity: given the West's mishandling of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western governments will be worried by such a prospect, and, obviously, Putin, or any successor, would be terrified; when policy is dictated by fear, all we can do is employ the most skilled diplomatic measures to reduce that fear.
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