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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 12, 2022 12:19:49 GMT 1
The West has to ensure security, not be so dependent on Russia (we already felt the need to restrict China in the supply of Telecomms to protect our security). It's not only gas, "Russia imposed a two-month block on exports of ammonium nitrate this month. The move has driven up global fertiliser costs which were already stoked by sanctions on Belaruskali, Belarus’s biggest potash supplier, imposed by the US, UK and others last year. Belarus and Russia account for 38 per cent of the global supply of potash, according to figures compiled by the Canadian government".
Our food security matters too.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Feb 12, 2022 14:22:04 GMT 1
Russia's is an odious regime but that's hardly unique in the world. I don't believe they'll invade Ukraine. If that had been their aim they could have triggered it long before the western world was paying close attention. But why would they? They still remember how their invasion of Afghanistan resulted in a costly war against a guerilla opposition using weapons supplied by the west and resulting in an ignominious defeat and withdrawal. Ukraine is an enormous country. It'd take more than 100,000 Russian troops to invade it. If Russia invaded and took over the country by force, they'd face years of civil war and fighting an opponent using guerilla and "terrorist" tactics. They don't want that. What they want is to reaffirm their sphere of influence and to keep Ukraine, with its substantial Russian population, out of the EU and out of NATO. Were the positions reversed, I'm sure the US would be doing the same (look at its treatment of Cuba). If Russia were to invade, NATO would arm Ukraine but wouldn't send troops. It's a stand off, but I think very unlikely to end in the sort of war some are talking about. And the UK's position in all of this is a minor one. We don't matter that much - we'll follow the US line, as usual. Meanwhile, it's a great photo-op for Queen Elizabeth Truss and a useful distraction for Johnson, so expect them to continue talking up the great "crisis". I do agree with your general thrust here, but reference to "spheres of influence" is indicative of 1960s cold War thinking, and we have moved on from that, quite rightly, given that such an approach was the major factor in the Cuban crisis; however, it seems to me that such thinking still exists in Russia, and, perhaps, more worryingly, in certain parts of the Labour Party, prompting Sir Keir Starmer's recent comments. As I have said, I can appreciate the Russian obsessions - though not condone their actions - purely in an historical context, but without presuming to judge the feelings of the Russian people at large ("riddles, mysteries and enigmas" spring to mind), my own view is that Russian LEADERSHIPS, haven't realised that the world is a different place from the 1960s. The problem which Russia thinks it has is not the prospect of another from the west but, more likely, a fear of real democratisation, as governing such a vast and diverse (ethnically and geographical) singularity would be impossible; the whole thing would split and fall apart, something which no Russian leader would possibly countenance. The stated Russian position, that Ukraine must not be permitted to join NATO is a straw-dog distraction from these deeper fears, I believe; slowly, over the past few decades, Russia has seen former Warsaw Pact/Comecon countries reflecting the more or less democratic will of their electorates (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic/Slovakia) by moving away from a centrally-controlled, authoritarian system of governance; thus doesn't sit well in the Kremlin, for the reasons I suggest above, and that Kremlin view has been sustained,since the days of the Soviet Union, by the apparent fondness which the Russian people have for "strong leadership" I am forced to conclude that any wrong move by either side may well precipitate the break-up of Russia as a functioning entity: given the West's mishandling of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western governments will be worried by such a prospect, and, obviously, Putin, or any successor, would be terrified; when policy is dictated by fear, all we can do is employ the most skilled diplomatic measures to reduce that fear. if russia breaks up the only winner will be china
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Post by martinshrew on Feb 15, 2022 10:58:01 GMT 1
He appears to be retreating.
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lynch
Midland League Division One
Posts: 252
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Post by lynch on Feb 15, 2022 11:00:48 GMT 1
Russian FO: "…will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed. They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired."
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 15, 2022 12:19:56 GMT 1
Russian FO: "…will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed. They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired." Delusional?
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Feb 15, 2022 13:41:27 GMT 1
Russian FO: "…will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed. They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired." Delusional? Whether Putin had any intension of invading, who knows. But even so, he's had a divided "West" rushing about the place like I don't know what, he has been the centre of world affairs for a good few weeks now with all and sundry looking to pay him a visit. So I'm sure what has transpired will have gone down well with his domestic audience. Which was perhaps the whole aim of it all anyhow.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 15, 2022 14:11:16 GMT 1
Whether Putin had any intension of invading, who knows. But even so, he's had a divided "West" rushing about the place like I don't know what, he has been the centre of world affairs for a good few weeks now with all and sundry looking to pay him a visit. So I'm sure what has transpired will have gone down well with his domestic audience. Which was perhaps the whole aim of it all anyhow. I'm not too sure that the "West" was " divided" - just slightly nuanced views; that apart, you may be right about his need to keep his population "on board" - either that, or it was one big ego-trip, costing a few roubles....
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Post by venceremos on Feb 15, 2022 14:17:24 GMT 1
Was it ever likely that an invasion would be publicly timetabled in advance? Tomorrow's supposedly the day for it, so we'll see.
A lot of grandstanding all round - Russia with its military build up and the west, in the absence of any intention to get involved on the ground, with its doomsday 'intelligence' warnings.
The last thing Russia needs (and probably wants) is to get bogged down in a never ending conflict in a huge and hostile country. It still remembers Afghanistan I'm sure.
And the west doesn't need Ukraine to be a NATO member. It can support the country without that. Biden, Macron (election year) and Johnson (distraction from domestic politics) all have their reasons for wanting to blow up this crisis into something more than it needs to be. But they're all coming out of it looking weaker.
Easy to say from the sidelines but it all seems so avoidable, and the result looks like a win for Putin. The idea of Ukraine joining NATO has gone. Nobody can seriously believe that Russia would back down for fear of western sanctions - sanctions that would damage the west as well as Russia.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Feb 15, 2022 14:29:00 GMT 1
Whether Putin had any intension of invading, who knows. But even so, he's had a divided "West" rushing about the place like I don't know what, he has been the centre of world affairs for a good few weeks now with all and sundry looking to pay him a visit. So I'm sure what has transpired will have gone down well with his domestic audience. Which was perhaps the whole aim of it all anyhow. just slightly nuanced views Well I suppose that's one way of putting it... Anyhow, I would think efforts to keep his population "on board" and an ego-trip for Putin are very much one in the same.👍
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 15, 2022 15:41:17 GMT 1
Was it ever likely that an invasion would be publicly timetabled in advance? Tomorrow's supposedly the day for it, so we'll see. A lot of grandstanding all round - Russia with its military build up and the west, in the absence of any intention to get involved on the ground, with its doomsday 'intelligence' warnings. The last thing Russia needs (and probably wants) is to get bogged down in a never ending conflict in a huge and hostile country. It still remembers Afghanistan I'm sure. And the west doesn't need Ukraine to be a NATO member. It can support the country without that. Biden, Macron (election year) and Johnson (distraction from domestic politics) all have their reasons for wanting to blow up this crisis into something more than it needs to be. But they're all coming out of it looking weaker. Easy to say from the sidelines but it all seems so avoidable, and the result looks like a win for Putin. The idea of Ukraine joining NATO has gone. Nobody can seriously believe that Russia would back down for fear of western sanctions - sanctions that would damage the west as well as Russia. Of course, any invasion wouldn't be publicly timetabled, certainly not by Russia, who would thereby lose much military advantage; that would be stupid in the extreme! As for tomorrow supposedly being "the day for it", I am sure that that judgement was reached following a proper assessment of troop and mechanised infantry movements, weather conditions, and possibly a likely desire on the part of the Russians not to offend China by taking attention away from the Winter Olympics, and many other factors. Whether it really is a matter of both sides "grandstanding" is arguable; I don't believe that anyone doubts the military build-up on Ukraine's borders, so a reaction was essential; the " doomsday" scenarios which formed a large part of that reaction were intended as much for Russian consumption as ours, and I wouldn't describe it as "grandstanding" at all. The West has a pretty good handle on Russian military capabilities, and to point out those capabilities, in the context of the build-up, isn't grandstanding. As for where that leaves us, assuming that the Russian forces do, in fact, return to barracks, is another matter; to my mind, Putin has embarrassed himself by marching his troops to the top of the hill, and marching them down again: achievement practically zero - constitutionally, Ukraine still aims to join NATO. As for Mr Putin's domestic standing, in the short term the waving around of his big stick, may well shore up his position, but the threat of ever-greater democratisation of his country has not gone away, and this is what terrifies him, and has earlier Russian leaders: the disintegration of Russia. Unfortunately, I envisage further similar events in the future.
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Post by salop27 on Feb 15, 2022 18:00:35 GMT 1
Latest news says some Russian troops are moving back but also field hospitals appear to be being built. So some concern there still.
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Post by martinshrew on Feb 15, 2022 18:08:57 GMT 1
Latest news says some Russian troops are moving back but also field hospitals appear to be being built. So some concern there still. I think he's on for one big **** about just to see how much the west will panic.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 20, 2022 22:47:09 GMT 1
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 21, 2022 21:00:43 GMT 1
The suggestion that President Putin may recognise the "independence" of Eastern Ukraine has uncomfortable echoes of Hitler and the Sudetenland.
Hardly a move of de-escalation is it?
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 21, 2022 21:28:22 GMT 1
The suggestion that President Putin may recognise the "independence" of Eastern Ukraine has uncomfortable echoes of Hitler and the Sudetenland. Hardly a move of de-escalation is it? Our move: Sanctions. We have to learn how to hurt Russia in the wallet with out hurting the West too much.
I think it should be noted that there has been a lot of Russian money donated to the Tory party over the last few years and a lot of property has been bought in London by Russian money. We have been far too "cosy" with Russian finance.
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Post by salop27 on Feb 21, 2022 21:33:03 GMT 1
It's all over for the Ukraine now, Russia will establish a new border by taking control of these new breakaway states. Question is will the Ukraine army fight or just accept it? Probably the latter but you couldn't blame them for doing so.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 21, 2022 21:40:31 GMT 1
It's all over for the Ukraine now, Russia will establish a new border by taking control of these new breakaway states. Question is will the Ukraine army fight or just accept it? Probably the latter but you couldn't blame them for doing so. It's thought they will fight. They have local knowledge, they have the support of the public, they have been on a war footing for eight years. A long and costly campaign, the West impoverishing Russian finance and there's a chance. Putin will want to come out of this loooking like he has won, so far he has, but we need him to have doubts about how much more he can win.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 21, 2022 21:49:21 GMT 1
It's all over for the Ukraine now, Russia will establish a new border by taking control of these new breakaway states. Question is will the Ukraine army fight or just accept it? Probably the latter but you couldn't blame them for doing so. Goodness only knows - I certainly don't; given Mr Putin's purported knowledge of history, he may even, for all I know, have taken the venue of the recent European security meeting (Munich) as a "green light"! I have to dispute the notion that he is a "clever man", however; his actions suggest the exact opposite, methinks.
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Post by returnofthehype on Feb 21, 2022 22:06:04 GMT 1
Don’t know what has taken him so long…can’t really blame him.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 21, 2022 22:08:44 GMT 1
It's all over for the Ukraine now, Russia will establish a new border by taking control of these new breakaway states. Question is will the Ukraine army fight or just accept it? Probably the latter but you couldn't blame them for doing so. Goodness only knows - I certainly don't; given Mr Putin's purported knowledge of history, he may even, for all I know, have taken the venue of the recent European security meeting (Munich) as a "green light"! I have to dispute the notion that he is a "clever man", however; his actions suggest the exact opposite, methinks. Clever man? Maybe the word " devious" is a better fit?
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 21, 2022 22:37:35 GMT 1
Goodness only knows - I certainly don't; given Mr Putin's purported knowledge of history, he may even, for all I know, have taken the venue of the recent European security meeting (Munich) as a "green light"! I have to dispute the notion that he is a "clever man", however; his actions suggest the exact opposite, methinks. Clever man? Maybe the word " devious" is a better fit? Don't misunderstand me - the description was not mine, but of "champagne prince's" fiancée. Devious yes - aggressors have to be that way!
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Post by belfastshrew on Feb 22, 2022 1:00:14 GMT 1
So the Russian troops have been ordered into the breakaway states to 'keep the peace'....
It was a similar thing in Crimea eight years ago. Belarus is effectively Russia Minor and Moldova has Russia troops stationed in it already. Putin is probably too old to attempt to reunite the majority of the old Soviet Union. Hopefully his successor will be cut from a more peaceful cloth.
I found it interesting the way Putin slated Lenin. Russians are obligated to revere past leaders regardless of opinion much like the Chinese. Putin perhaps stating he is a stronger leader than the Bolcheviks were.
Putin's appearance at the olympics was strange too considering his country wasn't allowed to compete? A showing of power to the rest of the world perhaps?
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Post by SeanBroseley on Feb 22, 2022 2:16:44 GMT 1
We'd be obliged to go to war if Ukraine were members of NATO. How would that go down?
There's far too many rich Russians inveigling themselves into British society. Let's make things hotter for them. More difficult to do business and to own assets here. Straight ahead expropriation and send them back on the first plane to Moscow.
Let's make sure that both parties carry out the agreements that are already in place on pain of targeted sanctions against them and their families. And further eastern expansion of NATO - our security as ordinary British people does not depend upon it.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Feb 22, 2022 7:46:02 GMT 1
Well to be fair to those who told us he was set to invade, they had it right.
And from what you hear from Putin it sounds as if he is questioning the legitimacy of the Ukraine itself as an independent nation and he clearly sees it as a part of some Greater Russia. That doesn't bode well. So who knows where this will end; whether it will end at the territory now controlled by the separatists, whether it will involved Russian troops being deployed in the wider areas that they now recognize as independent of Ukraine (meaning they may come face to face with Ukrainian troops) or will they go beyond even that.
But it becomes ever more clear why the Ukraine would want to be a part of NATO and why the likes of Estonia are requesting more support from it.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 22, 2022 10:06:24 GMT 1
We'd be obliged to go to war if Ukraine were members of NATO. How would that go down? There's far too many rich Russians inveigling themselves into British society. Let's make things hotter for them. More difficult to do business and to own assets here. Straight ahead expropriation and send them back on the first plane to Moscow. Let's make sure that both parties carry out the agreements that are already in place on pain of targeted sanctions against them and their families. And further eastern expansion of NATO - our security as ordinary British people does not depend upon it. Taking your paragraphs in order: 1) Let's just say, for now, that it would divide opinion; 2) A not unfair approach, although, even assuming that due process is followed, this does sound like expropriation followed by deportation, for foreign law-breakers; 3) "the Eastern expansion of NATO": this Kremlin-inspired canard needs to be laid to rest, and now; if one accepts the existence and independence of more or less democratic sovereign states, it follows that it is their electorates which have the greater bearing on that State's policies, domestic or foreign, and not any external power. NATO, as an essentially defensive organisation, cannot enforce its will upon a non-member, a stance which is the stark opposite of the Putin view in all respects. I suspect that certain Labour MPs, such as Diane Abbott will counter with their view that NATO is not a defensive body, which is why Sir Keir Starmer has already distanced himself, and Labour policy,from such views. It is a fact of life that an aggressor always holds the initiative, and all the West can do at present is react to events as they unfurl: in the immediate term, extreme sanctions must be imposed, whatever the cost to our own economies, I am sure most will accept. Beyond that, I do hope we don't have to hear a repeat of that radio broadcast from Hungary in 1956, desperately seeking help as the Russian tanks invaded. Worrying times.
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 22, 2022 10:58:21 GMT 1
So the Russian troops have been ordered into the breakaway states to 'keep the peace'.... It was a similar thing in Crimea eight years ago. Belarus is effectively Russia Minor and Moldova has Russia troops stationed in it already. Putin is probably too old to attempt to reunite the majority of the old Soviet Union. Hopefully his successor will be cut from a more peaceful cloth. I found it interesting the way Putin slated Lenin. Russians are obligated to revere past leaders regardless of opinion much like the Chinese. Putin perhaps stating he is a stronger leader than the Bolcheviks were. Putin's appearance at the olympics was strange too considering his country wasn't allowed to compete? A showing of power to the rest of the world perhaps? Putin too old? He's siezing the opportunity to leave a legacy. A proud Soviet Union. He's siezing the opportunity while Europe, especially Germany, needs Russia's gas. So badly that half the money to complete the, as yet unused, Nordstrom 2 undersea pipeline has come from Western companies. He's seizing the opportunity while the West is coming out of Covid with rampant inflation again. Western money is rolling in with high oil and gas prices looking set to continue.
We have a few cards to play: The Russian Stock Market is down 40% since last autumn. The Rouble is down 50%. We can make money tight for him. Germany has to start looking for alternatives to dependence on Russian gas. Maybe there is scope to include China in the diplomatic pressure? At his Olympic joint speech, Putin reaffirmed the Minsk agreement - now he's torn it up - snubbing the Chinese.
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Post by martinshrew on Feb 22, 2022 11:18:55 GMT 1
We need Europe the stop relying on Russia for supplies before we can get anywhere fast, but in the meantime, apply the heaviest possible sanctions.
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lynch
Midland League Division One
Posts: 252
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Post by lynch on Feb 22, 2022 11:27:36 GMT 1
Johnson refers to rebel-held Luhansk and Donetsk but the rebels don’t hold the entire regions. So either Ukraine forces will withdraw to the newly independent states borders or the “peacekeepers” will help move them on and end the conflict. If Ukrainian forces fight then that’s the green light for Russia to invade further into Ukraine
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Post by staffordshrew on Feb 22, 2022 11:30:55 GMT 1
We need an oil and natural gas policy that takes into account all the uses. The focus seems to have been all about insulating and cutting car use. Insulating - yes, definately. Cut car use? Or maybe just make them more efficient? What seems to have been neglected is: How do they make Nitrogen for fertilisers? Using natural gas. How do they make loads of products, including plastics and road surfaces? Using oil.
Who is supplying too big a proportion of it? Russia.
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Post by armchairfan on Feb 22, 2022 12:03:12 GMT 1
Johnson refers to rebel-held Luhansk and Donetsk but the rebels don’t hold the entire regions. So either Ukraine forces will withdraw to the newly independent states borders or the “peacekeepers” will help move them on and end the conflict. If Ukrainian forces fight then that’s the green light for Russia to invade further into Ukraine On what basis, other than your belief assertion of the Kremlin, can you possibly refer to "newly independent states"? Am I mistaken when I see Russian military equipment moving in? ....sorry - they must be peacekeeping....
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