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Post by northwestman on Apr 9, 2020 10:27:31 GMT 1
This excellent report from Reuters, flagged up by SeanBroseley on another thread, does raise some questions about the roles played by Whitty and the scientific advisers. www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF?fbclid=IwAR1LeWdqZq0k0uAOXms9_oAF4oNvKMT_sZdxAeCZSlLtFXaGrzUk3LTXHE4 It was early spring when British scientists laid out the bald truth to their government. It was “highly likely,” they said, that there was now “sustained transmission” of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. If unconstrained and if the virus behaved as in China, up to four-fifths of Britons could be infected and one in a hundred might die, wrote the scientists, members of an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, on March 2. Their assessment didn’t spell it out, but that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million. Yet the next day, March 3, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was his cheery self. He joked that he was still shaking hands with everyone, including at a hospital treating coronavirus patients. “Our country remains extremely well prepared,” Johnson said as Italy reached 79 deaths. “We already have a fantastic NHS,” the national public health service, “fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.” Alongside him at the Downing Street press conference was Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser and himself an epidemiologist. Whitty passed on the modelling committee’s broad conclusions, including the prediction of a possible 80% infection rate and the consequent deaths. But he played them down, saying the number of people who would be infected was probably “a lot lower” and coming up with a total was “largely speculative.” The upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak, a Reuters investigation has found. Interviews with more than 20 British scientists, key officials and senior sources in Johnson’s Conservative Party, and a study of minutes of advisory committee meetings and public testimony and documents, show how these scientific advisers concluded early the virus could be devastating. But the interviews and documents also reveal that for more than two months, the scientists whose advice guided Downing Street did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the public or the government. Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak. Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn’t study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists’ reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn’t accept such restrictions. The UK scientists were also mostly convinced - and many still are - that, once the new virus escaped China, quarantine measures would likely not succeed. Minutes of technical committees reviewed by Reuters indicate that almost no attention was paid to preparing a programme of mass testing. By the end of January, the government’s chief medical adviser, Whitty, was explaining to politicians in private, according to at least two people who spoke to him, that if the virus escaped China, it would in time infect the great majority of people in Britain. It could only be slowed down, not stopped. On Jan 30, the government raised the threat level to “moderate” from “low.” With Whitty stating in a BBC interview on February 13 that a UK outbreak was still an “if, not a when,” Richard Horton, a medical doctor and editor of the Lancet, said the government and public health service wasted an opportunity that month to prepare quarantine restriction measures and a programme of mass tests, and procure resources like ventilators and personal protective equipment for expanded intensive care. Calling the lost chance a “national scandal” in a later editorial, he would testify to parliament about a mismatch between “the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China” and the “somewhat pedestrian evaluation” of the threat from the scientific advice to the government. On March 12 came a bombshell for the British public. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, announced Britain had moved the threat to UK citizens from “moderate” to “high.” And he said the country had moved from trying to contain the disease to trying to slow its spread. New cases were not going to be tracked at all. “It is no longer necessary for us to identify every case,” he said. Only hospital cases would, in future, be tested for the virus. What had been an undisclosed policy was in the open: beyond a certain point, attempts to completely extinguish the virus would stop.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 9, 2020 10:38:15 GMT 1
This excellent report from Reuters, flagged up by SeanBroseley on another thread, does raise some questions about the roles played by Whitty and the scientific advisers. www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF?fbclid=IwAR1LeWdqZq0k0uAOXms9_oAF4oNvKMT_sZdxAeCZSlLtFXaGrzUk3LTXHE4 It was early spring when British scientists laid out the bald truth to their government. It was “highly likely,” they said, that there was now “sustained transmission” of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom. If unconstrained and if the virus behaved as in China, up to four-fifths of Britons could be infected and one in a hundred might die, wrote the scientists, members of an official committee set up to model the spread of pandemic flu, on March 2. Their assessment didn’t spell it out, but that was a prediction of over 500,000 deaths in this nation of nearly 70 million. Yet the next day, March 3, Prime Minister Boris Johnson was his cheery self. He joked that he was still shaking hands with everyone, including at a hospital treating coronavirus patients. “Our country remains extremely well prepared,” Johnson said as Italy reached 79 deaths. “We already have a fantastic NHS,” the national public health service, “fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.” Alongside him at the Downing Street press conference was Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser and himself an epidemiologist. Whitty passed on the modelling committee’s broad conclusions, including the prediction of a possible 80% infection rate and the consequent deaths. But he played them down, saying the number of people who would be infected was probably “a lot lower” and coming up with a total was “largely speculative.” The upbeat tone of that briefing stood in sharp contrast with the growing unease of many of the government’s scientific advisers behind the scenes. They were already convinced that Britain was on the brink of a disastrous outbreak, a Reuters investigation has found. Interviews with more than 20 British scientists, key officials and senior sources in Johnson’s Conservative Party, and a study of minutes of advisory committee meetings and public testimony and documents, show how these scientific advisers concluded early the virus could be devastating. But the interviews and documents also reveal that for more than two months, the scientists whose advice guided Downing Street did not clearly signal their worsening fears to the public or the government. Until March 12, the risk level, set by the government’s top medical advisers on the recommendation of the scientists, remained at “moderate,” suggesting only the possibility of a wider outbreak. Interviews and records published so far suggest that the scientific committees that advised Johnson didn’t study, until mid-March, the option of the kind of stringent lockdown adopted early on in China, where the disease arose in December, and then followed by much of Europe and finally by Britain itself. The scientists’ reasoning: Britons, many of them assumed, simply wouldn’t accept such restrictions. The UK scientists were also mostly convinced - and many still are - that, once the new virus escaped China, quarantine measures would likely not succeed. Minutes of technical committees reviewed by Reuters indicate that almost no attention was paid to preparing a programme of mass testing. By the end of January, the government’s chief medical adviser, Whitty, was explaining to politicians in private, according to at least two people who spoke to him, that if the virus escaped China, it would in time infect the great majority of people in Britain. It could only be slowed down, not stopped. On Jan 30, the government raised the threat level to “moderate” from “low.” With Whitty stating in a BBC interview on February 13 that a UK outbreak was still an “if, not a when,” Richard Horton, a medical doctor and editor of the Lancet, said the government and public health service wasted an opportunity that month to prepare quarantine restriction measures and a programme of mass tests, and procure resources like ventilators and personal protective equipment for expanded intensive care. Calling the lost chance a “national scandal” in a later editorial, he would testify to parliament about a mismatch between “the urgent warning that was coming from the frontline in China” and the “somewhat pedestrian evaluation” of the threat from the scientific advice to the government. On March 12 came a bombshell for the British public. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, announced Britain had moved the threat to UK citizens from “moderate” to “high.” And he said the country had moved from trying to contain the disease to trying to slow its spread. New cases were not going to be tracked at all. “It is no longer necessary for us to identify every case,” he said. Only hospital cases would, in future, be tested for the virus. What had been an undisclosed policy was in the open: beyond a certain point, attempts to completely extinguish the virus would stop. you only have to look at south korea , new Zealand and taiwan to see how utterly incompetent this goverment have been
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 9, 2020 11:01:20 GMT 1
Professor Whitty said on March 4: 'At this point in time we think it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK.'
For me, that was the date to adopt what we have now to do everything we could to make it a likely instead of a definite.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 9, 2020 11:15:02 GMT 1
in the Sars pandemic taiwan had 668 cases and 181 after pandemic Taiwan put in measures learnt from the pandemic.Taiwan has a population of nearly 24million people .it has 380 cornoavirus cases and 5 deaths the learnt we did not , they put in the necessary measuers we did not another island example is new zealand which seems to be geting on top of the virus.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2020 16:39:09 GMT 1
That Reuters article really is interesting.
Lucky we aren't in a real war.
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Post by Pilch on Apr 9, 2020 17:55:19 GMT 1
Lucky we aren't in a real war. Not yet, but it wouldn't take much
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 10, 2020 12:55:23 GMT 1
as somone who is retired from the NHS, it is a source of real anger for me that front line staff still do not have the equipment they need; From my RCN update "It is frustrating – to say the least - to have to write to you again on the issue of PPE. We are here to nurse, and that’s what we are doing. But we expect those in power to do their duty as well. We will keep demanding the right equipment to enable us to care for patients and to do it without putting ourselves at unnecessary risk. Yesterday, Dame Donna Kinnair wrote to the House of Commons health select committee saying: "Our safety and ability to care for patients is being fundamentally compromised by the lack of adequate and correct supplies of vital personal protective equipment and the slow and small-scale roll-out of COVID-19 testing.”
"For our members, we have developed a short document that will help you answer the question if your PPE is safe for you. We also ask members to take a minute to complete our PPE survey so we can build a real picture from across the whole of the UK"
Anne Marie Rafferty
RCN President
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 10, 2020 20:02:27 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions?
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 9:58:59 GMT 1
The health minister is talking about gearing up supplys of PPE 72 days after the WHO declared a Global emergency. this goverment and its health advisors have shown they are not fit for purpose. in contrast taiwan has had one death from a population of nearly 24 million
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 10:05:23 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/04/11/coronavirus-live-updates-during-first-bank-holiday-lockdown/"The Royal College of Nursing dismissed any suggestions that healthcare staff were ‘abusing or overusing’ PPE. No protective equipment is more important than the lives of healthcare workers, a nursing union has said, after ministers said it should be treated as a “precious resource”. Health Secretary Matt Hancock had said there is enough personal protective equipment (PPE) to go round if it is used in line with official guidance, and his goal is that “everyone” working in a critical role gets what they need. But the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) dismissed any suggestions that healthcare staff were “abusing or overusing” PPE." i know who i belive about supplies of PPE.pherhaps the health minister whould like to go to a front line unit wearing a bin bag and an out of date surgical mask.
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Post by Pilch on Apr 11, 2020 10:15:15 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions? he would only ask the same questions over and over again and again and again
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Post by northwestman on Apr 11, 2020 11:44:06 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions? he would only ask the same questions over and over again and again and again And they don't get answered. Again, again and again. Examples - Why is Germany doing so much better than us? Were we late in recognising there would be a need worldwide for ventilators and PPE, and so were relegated to the back of the queue? How many of the alleged 100,000 tests a day are going to be the antigen rather than the antibody test? (Though that one has an obvious answer as we haven't as yet even got an acceptable antibody test. Nevertheless, they ducked giving it). Why are we still allowing flights into the UK from anywhere in the world, and then waving everyone through to potentially spread the virus throughout the UK? Have we a strategy for lifting the lockdown? And a question I'd like to ask - As it's clear that the earliest that an antibody test will be available is the end of May (and that's probably over optimistic), will mass testing by the antigen test (which is what Germany has been doing for a long time) be sufficient to get us out of the lockdown?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:00:01 GMT 1
imagine Diane Abbott ordered millions of faulty tests. Imagine we found out that Corbyn's advisers had said if pensioners die, they die. Imagine if 250,000 lives were considered sacrificial. Imagine if Corbyn had nurses in bin bags and was clapping for them while watching movies.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:21:09 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions? I think that would be brilliant. Andrew Neil , not just asking the same questions but ones that really matter . Personally I would signpost Hunts part in this fiasco too . He seems to be critical of how far behind we are compared to other countries with regard to our testing regime , such as it is , and the provision of PPE . Somehow he has forgotten that he was Health Minister and did bugger all for the NHS . Matt Hancock is struggling to come up with answers . His statement that the Government is or has provided millions of pieces of equipment is laughable , obviously he’s been counting every glove and every overboot to boost the figures . I was of the opinion that now wasn’t the time to blame the government . I’ve changed my mind as challenging reports surface . Enough is enough . People are dying because of how the situation has been mismanaged. Time to really get a grip and Save the NHS .
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 11, 2020 12:42:18 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions? he would only ask the same questions over and over again and again and again The difference would be, put different ways until any failings were patently obvious and addressed.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 12:46:36 GMT 1
Fed up of the same old questions at daily briefings from Laura Kuenssberg and the gang. Any chance of Andrew Neil going on line and asking the deeper questions? I think that would be brilliant. Andrew Neil , not just asking the same questions but ones that really matter . Personally I would signpost Hunts part in this fiasco too . He seems to be critical of how far behind we are compared to other countries with regard to our testing regime , such as it is , and the provision of PPE . Somehow he has forgotten that he was Health Minister and did bugger all for the NHS . Matt Hancock is struggling to come up with answers . His statement that the Government is or has provided millions of pieces of equipment is laughable , obviously he’s been counting every glove and every overboot to boost the figures . I was of the opinion that now wasn’t the time to blame the government . I’ve changed my mind as challenging reports surface . Enough is enough . People are dying because of how the situation has been mismanaged. Time to really get a grip and Save the NHS . www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exclusive-ministers-warned-nhs-could-not-cope-pandemic-three/"The NHS failed a major cross-government test of its ability to handle a severe pandemic but the “terrifying” results were kept secret from the public, the Sunday Telegraph can reveal. Ministers were informed three years ago that Britain would be quickly overwhelmed by a severe outbreak amid a shortage of critical care beds, morgue capacity and personal protective equipment (PPE), an investigation has discovered. Codenamed Exercise Cygnus, the three-day dry run for a pandemic carried out in October 2016 tested how NHS hospitals and other services would cope in the event of a major flu outbreak with a similar mortality rate to Covid-19." Hunt was minister for health during this time questions should be directed to him as to why he did nothing.
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 11, 2020 12:51:24 GMT 1
Why do all our leaders skate on such thin ice? Tell us to stay home, then go to their second home; continue to meet and shake hands till they get the virus; suggest ecking out ppe with potential risk to NHS staff, after failing to put enough ppe in place; Chief Constable's who claim they are thinking of checking your shopping when they have no power to - a simple conference call between Chief Constables and Priti should have sorted out a joint approach. Why are there so many Chief Constables anyway?
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 12:53:21 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52233085"Carmarthenshire council said not knowing the amount or type of PPE being delivered made planning difficult. Plaid Cymru council leader Emlyn Dole said: "I'm grateful for the Welsh Government's efforts, but they're not giving us the whole picture." The Welsh Government said it was working as fast as it could on PPE. "As long as it meets the standards and specifications, we're buying whatever we can get our hands on," he said. He does not know if he is breaking any rules, but insisted: "I have a duty of care to people. "We're on an emergency footing and we need to make sure our care providers are secure and adequately protected. "What I've asked for is transparency from the Welsh Government about what they hold so that we can plan. "I don't mind being criticised for it later, so long as I'm protecting people."
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Post by Pilch on Apr 11, 2020 12:59:47 GMT 1
he would only ask the same questions over and over again and again and again The difference would be, put different ways until any failings were patently obvious and addressed. addressed ? you mean sack someone and give the job to someone else who will do exactly the same, no matter which party they represent
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 11, 2020 13:06:06 GMT 1
The difference would be, put different ways until any failings were patently obvious and addressed. addressed ? you mean sack someone and give the job to someone else who will do exactly the same, no matter which party they represent No, I am a believer that if someone cocks up, then changes their action they are the better for it and won't cock up again. It's when someone insists on going on the defensive, refuses to learn and starts blaming everyone else, as Hancock has today, that they deserve the sack. I would like to see Boris saying something like "You saw what happened to me after continuing to meet and shake hands, you must self isolate, keep to the restrictions, I would not want you or your family to go through what I did"
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Post by northwestman on Apr 11, 2020 13:13:59 GMT 1
Why do all our leaders skate on such thin ice? Tell us to stay home, then go to their second home; continue to meet and shake hands till they get the virus; suggest ecking out ppe with potential risk to NHS staff, after failing to put enough ppe in place; Chief Constable's who claim they are thinking of checking your shopping when they have no power to - a simple conference call between Chief Constables and Priti should have sorted out a joint approach. Why are there so many Chief Constables anyway? I think the word you are looking for is 'entitlement'.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 13:22:15 GMT 1
imagine Diane Abbott ordered millions of faulty tests. Imagine we found out that Corbyn's advisers had said if pensioners die, they die. Imagine if 250,000 lives were considered sacrificial. Imagine if Corbyn had nurses in bin bags and was clapping for them while watching movies. Glad to see you posting on here, means to me that you're well. You make a good point. Another point are the people, on here and elsewhere, that say we shouldn't be politicising the current restrictions, while ignoring that's exactly what the government are doing. Stay safe and don't overuse the PPE...…..
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Post by northwestman on Apr 11, 2020 13:40:51 GMT 1
If another Government Minister at yet another press conference parrots the 'we are following the best scientific and medical advice' mantra again, I'm close to throwing something at the set.
It's as if they are determined to pass the buck to their advisers if anything goes wrong, rather than take the slightest responsibility themselves for any decisions made, which as Matron rightly points out includes starving the NHS of resources for many years.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 15:12:38 GMT 1
If another Government Minister at yet another press conference parrots the 'we are following the best scientific and medical advice' mantra again, I'm close to throwing something at the set. It's as if they are determined to pass the buck to their advisers if anything goes wrong, rather than take the slightest responsibility themselves for any decisions made, which as Matron rightly points out includes starving the NHS of resources for many years. the ministers are getting ahead of the storm and throwing the advisors under a bus. they have all made a mess of this.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 11, 2020 16:36:43 GMT 1
If another Government Minister at yet another press conference parrots the 'we are following the best scientific and medical advice' mantra again, I'm close to throwing something at the set. It's as if they are determined to pass the buck to their advisers if anything goes wrong, rather than take the slightest responsibility themselves for any decisions made, which as Matron rightly points out includes starving the NHS of resources for many years. Sure enough! Priti Patel parroted it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 16:57:59 GMT 1
imagine Diane Abbott ordered millions of faulty tests. Imagine we found out that Corbyn's advisers had said if pensioners die, they die. Imagine if 250,000 lives were considered sacrificial. Imagine if Corbyn had nurses in bin bags and was clapping for them while watching movies. Glad to see you posting on here, means to me that you're well. You make a good point. Another point are the people, on here and elsewhere, that say we shouldn't be politicising the current restrictions, while ignoring that's exactly what the government are doing. Stay safe and don't overuse the PPE...….. Thank you. And back at ya. 👍I am well. Think we’ve yet to see the full extent in our hospitals in Shropshire yet though.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 17:11:53 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/52215811"So Thomas is going to cycle at home in Cardiff for 36 hours over the course of three days, starting on 15 April. "I thought I'd set myself the challenge of mirroring an NHS worker's shifts - so doing three 12-hour shifts," he told BBC Radio 5 Live." "But it's a decent challenge and hopefully we can raise a bit of money for the NHS and who as we all know are doing such an amazing job at the moment."
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Post by Northwest Shrew on Apr 11, 2020 17:28:51 GMT 1
I think the whole ministerial process needs ripping up and starting again. How can you go from being the minister for digital culture one week, then be transferred to being minister for health the next week.
The minister for health should be some one who has 30 years experience of working in the NHS. The minister for Transport should be someone who’s run a haulage firm for 25 years. Minister for sport - perhaps an ex sportsman or woman
Experience in the field is crucial.
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Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Apr 11, 2020 17:47:12 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/52215811"So Thomas is going to cycle at home in Cardiff for 36 hours over the course of three days, starting on 15 April. "I thought I'd set myself the challenge of mirroring an NHS worker's shifts - so doing three 12-hour shifts," he told BBC Radio 5 Live." "But it's a decent challenge and hopefully we can raise a bit of money for the NHS and who as we all know are doing such an amazing job at the moment." Quite something if he manages to complete the challenge. I’m riding my turbo every day, but more than an hour is tough. Obviously I’m not a pro cyclist though, but nevertheless it will be physically and mentally hard. Riding a turbo is a lot more challenging than riding outdoors.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 11, 2020 19:25:25 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/11/coronavirus-uk-live-matt-hancock-under-fire-over-ppe-comments-live-updatesCoronavirus UK live: "Priti Patel – 'I am sorry if people feel there have been failings' on PPE " "Patel, when pressed to apologise to NHS workers over a lack of personal protective equipment, couldn’t quite do it. She said: I’m sorry if people feel that there have been failings. After being asked twice if she would apologise to NHS staff and their families over the lack of “necessary PPE” that has been linked to NHS workers becoming infected and dying, she said: I’ve been very clear in what I have said and I’m sorry that people feel that way." what is so hard to just put your hand up and admit this; yet more weasle words from the goverment. "feel there has been failings" all parts of the nhs have been failed by a goverment who were initially complacent and now just incompetent. is anyone aware of any other developed country who has been so disorganized and had such widspread supply problems with PPE as the uk
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