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Post by northwestman on Mar 31, 2024 11:44:08 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/30/conservatives-set-for-worst-election-result-yet-research-showsThe Conservatives are on course for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats, according to a new poll. The seat-by-seat analysis gives the Tories 98 constituencies compared with Labour’s 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 286-seat majority, the Sunday Times has reported. The 15,000-person poll, conducted by agency Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, gives Labour a 45% vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives. Rishi Sunak’s party is on track to win 98 seats with none in Scotland or Wales, according to the research. It also suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat in North Yorkshire, to Labour with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points. Too good to be true methinks. Starmer's position on Gaza which has already lost him thousands of members and a number of Councillors, the alleged corruption going on at the selections of Starmer acolytes for the constituencies at the expense of the left, his constant U turning on practically everything, and Reeves' austerity mark 2 economic policy are bound to be latched onto by the Tories once the election is called. Plus Independents are standing against the Labour Party in a number of constituencies, including Starmer's, Rayner's and Streeting's, which will lose the Labour Party some votes.
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on Mar 31, 2024 16:17:59 GMT 1
In general terms I think the poll is correct in that the Tories will loose a lot of seats, including Shrewsbury in my opinion.
It is a National poll and the result extrapolated to each constituency.
Obviously it doesn't take into account tactical voting.
Come the election everyone will know who the main challenger to the Tories is in their seat.
The poll suggests that the Tories will regain North Shropshire which I think is utter rubbish .
While there will be other anomalies like this, I have no doubt that Labour will form the next government
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Post by northwestman on Mar 31, 2024 19:04:16 GMT 1
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Post by northwestman on Mar 31, 2024 19:57:24 GMT 1
I've been looking at the record of the prospective Tory candidate for North Shropshire on Wiki. Not too impressive. Simon Baynes lost to Lib Dems and Labour in 3 general elections, and to Plaid Cymru and Labour in 2 Welsh Assembly elections. He unsuccessfully sought the Conservative nomination for the seat of South Staffordshire in 2010, losing out to future cabinet minister Gavin Williamson. Finally elected on his sixth attempt in 2019. He has served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Justice and Tackling Illegal Migration from July to September 2022. So precisely two months! That went well then. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_BaynesHelen Morgan of the Lib Dems for me - she's worked tirelessly for the constituency since replacing the disgraced Owen Paterson at the by election. The Labour Party haven't a hope in North Shropshire, so some tactical voting is required. |
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on Mar 31, 2024 22:15:51 GMT 1
This poll sets North Shropshire up to be a 2 horse race between The Tories and Lib Dems which should help galvanize those who lean towards Labour to get behind Helen Morgan.
Name recognition will count for something in the polling booth
Both the Tories and Lib Dems will be opposition parties...so why not vote for the best candidate ?
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Post by northwestman on Apr 4, 2024 23:22:15 GMT 1
The fresh poll by YouGov showed that, if the election were held now, Labour would win 403 seats while the Conservatives would be reduced to 155 seats – a net loss of 210 seats for Rishi Sunak’s party.
It is the latest in a series of damning polls for the party which show both Labour and the Liberal Democrats making sweeping gains in both its former heartlands in the north of England as well as many traditional “Blue Wall” seats.
Another recent poll by Survation for Best for Britain predicted that the Tories could be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at general election, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party winning 468 seats.
Here are the Tory Cabinet ministers and big beasts on track to lose their seats, if the YouGov poll predictions are proved correct at the election.
Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Mark Harper, Alex Chalk, Iain Duncan Smith, Johnny Mercer, Victoria Prentis, Simon Hart, Damian Green, Tobias Ellwood, Robert Buckland, Simon Clarke, John Redwood.
The i.
Bring it on!
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Post by Worthingshrew on Apr 5, 2024 16:45:23 GMT 1
I hope the Tories get annihilated, they deserve nothing more. However any Govt needs a decent opposition to hold it to account.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2024 16:57:13 GMT 1
I hope the Tories get annihilated, they deserve nothing more. However any Govt needs a decent opposition to hold it to account. You can't have it both ways! |
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Post by Worthingshrew on Apr 5, 2024 22:17:27 GMT 1
I hope the Tories get annihilated, they deserve nothing more. However any Govt needs a decent opposition to hold it to account. You can't have it both ways! No, but there are always two sides to an argument. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 6, 2024 11:51:59 GMT 1
I hope the Tories get annihilated, they deserve nothing more. However any Govt needs a decent opposition to hold it to account. You can't have it both ways! Perhaps you can? There's places like North Shropshire where it's not Labour that can defeat the Tories, it's the Lib Dems. |
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on Apr 6, 2024 14:49:26 GMT 1
I would treat any poll with a degree of caution. When the election campaign officially starts hard questions will be asked of Labours policies and the Lib Dems will get more exposure.
Each seat is a different battle. I expect Labour to challenge the Tories hard in Shrewsbury,and the Lib Dems to retain North Shropshire and challenge the Tories hard in South Shropshire.
As the electorate realises who can beat the Tories then tactical voting comes into play
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 6, 2024 15:47:36 GMT 1
I would treat any poll with a degree of caution. When the election campaign officially starts hard questions will be asked of Labours policies and the Lib Dems will get more exposure. Each seat is a different battle. I expect Labour to challenge the Tories hard in Shrewsbury,and the Lib Dems to retain North Shropshire and challenge the Tories hard in South Shropshire. As the electorate realises who can beat the Tories then tactical voting comes into play And in North Shropshire's case their votes didn't just act to defeat the Tory - they got a better MP too. |
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Post by sheltonsalopian on Apr 9, 2024 9:31:24 GMT 1
I see the following results around us:
South Shropshire: Tory hold (reduced majority)
Telford: Labour gain
Shrewsbury: (incredibly tight, probably squeak a Labour gain)
North Shropshire: Tory hold (far reduced majority)
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on Apr 9, 2024 10:10:10 GMT 1
Firstly I believe this poll has been superceded my a more recent You Gov one which paints a similar picture.
These polls are too simplistic and ignore local factors.
For example if you ask people in North Shropshire which party they support you will get one set of numbers, if you give them the names of the candidates you will get another set of numbers. Only Helen Morgan has any name recognition
Tactical voting will make a big difference, each seat will be a 2 horse race.
I have no doubt the Lib Dems will retain North Shropshire, and Labour will win Shrewsbury.
South Shropshire is a battle between the Lib Dems and Tories.
Oh Telford will revert back to Labour
I expect the Tories to hold onto the Wrekin just about
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 24, 2024 9:22:04 GMT 1
This poll sets North Shropshire up to be a 2 horse race between The Tories and Lib Dems which should help galvanize those who lean towards Labour to get behind Helen Morgan. Name recognition will count for something in the polling booth Both the Tories and Lib Dems will be opposition parties...so why not vote for the best candidate ? I hope Helen Morgan keeps her seat she has done a good job and shows how utterly useless our Shrewsbury MP is |
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Post by zenfootball on Apr 29, 2024 10:57:06 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2024 12:49:46 GMT 1
We only have the crime and commissioner election in our neck of the woods this Thursday.
Sad to say I'm not bothering to vote.
This will be the first time in my lifetime that I will not be casting my vote and I've voted in everything going!
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Post by staffordshrew on May 2, 2024 18:16:19 GMT 1
My May 2nd PCC election candidates included one who said he represented The Conservative Party - more police safer streets. Taking a liberty there, the Conservative Party have been in power for 14 years, are there more police, are the streets safer?
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Post by Valerioch on May 3, 2024 13:54:37 GMT 1
Rumours starting to circulate that Sadiq Khan may suffer a shock loss
I don't believe these, but my god what a glorious result were it to happen - horrible, dangerous, racist little man who London and the country desperately needs to see the back of
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Post by venceremos on May 3, 2024 14:22:52 GMT 1
Rumours starting to circulate that Sadiq Khan may suffer a shock loss I don't believe these, but my god what a glorious result were it to happen - horrible, dangerous, racist little man who London and the country desperately needs to see the back of The rumour's rubbish and so is your opinion. |
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Post by davycrockett on May 3, 2024 14:26:37 GMT 1
I see the following results around us: South Shropshire: Tory hold (reduced majority) Telford: Labour gain Shrewsbury: (incredibly tight, probably squeak a Labour gain) North Shropshire: Tory hold (far reduced majority) How can N Shropshire be a Tory Hold? They don’t hold it 😂 |
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Post by venceremos on May 3, 2024 14:31:57 GMT 1
We only have the crime and commissioner election in our neck of the woods this Thursday. Sad to say I'm not bothering to vote. This will be the first time in my lifetime that I will not be casting my vote and I've voted in everything going! I think the only election I've ever not voted in since 1979 was the first PCC. I didn't (and still don't really) understand how this could be an elected position when we know nothing about the incumbent or the other candidates. The very title, Police and Crime Commissioner, makes me think of Batman's chum, Commissioner Gordon. However, we got a leaflet from someone called Henry Curteis of something called the English Democrats, which just banged on about scrapping diversity targets and probably has the word "woke" in there somewhere but life's too short to read the whole thing. I asked my son what he thought the English Democrats' motto was - he got it in one: "putting England first"  . Anyway, upshot is that I decided I had to record a vote for someone other than Curteis and his drivel. I voted Green - a Green PCC would be an interesting change. |
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Post by Deleted on May 3, 2024 14:50:31 GMT 1
We only have the crime and commissioner election in our neck of the woods this Thursday. Sad to say I'm not bothering to vote. This will be the first time in my lifetime that I will not be casting my vote and I've voted in everything going! I think the only election I've ever not voted in since 1979 was the first PCC. I didn't (and still don't really) understand how this could be an elected position when we know nothing about the incumbent or the other candidates. The very title, Police and Crime Commissioner, makes me think of Batman's chum, Commissioner Gordon. However, we got a leaflet from someone called Henry Curteis of something called the English Democrats, which just banged on about scrapping diversity targets and probably has the word "woke" in there somewhere but life's too short to read the whole thing. I asked my son what he thought the English Democrats' motto was - he got it in one: "putting England first" . Anyway, upshot is that I decided I had to record a vote for someone other than Curteis and his drivel. I voted Green - a Green PCC would be an interesting change. They don't declare our PCC until Saturday, what will be interesting will be the turn out as there was certainly a lot of apathy in my neck of the woods. We had no info whatsoever as to who was standing! |
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Post by venceremos on May 3, 2024 17:03:40 GMT 1
I think the only election I've ever not voted in since 1979 was the first PCC. I didn't (and still don't really) understand how this could be an elected position when we know nothing about the incumbent or the other candidates. The very title, Police and Crime Commissioner, makes me think of Batman's chum, Commissioner Gordon. However, we got a leaflet from someone called Henry Curteis of something called the English Democrats, which just banged on about scrapping diversity targets and probably has the word "woke" in there somewhere but life's too short to read the whole thing. I asked my son what he thought the English Democrats' motto was - he got it in one: "putting England first" . Anyway, upshot is that I decided I had to record a vote for someone other than Curteis and his drivel. I voted Green - a Green PCC would be an interesting change. They don't declare our PCC until Saturday, what will be interesting will be the turn out as there was certainly a lot of apathy in my neck of the woods. We had no info whatsoever as to who was standing! Felt sorry for the two at our polling station when I called in just after 9pm - must have been a tediously slow day, even with the fun of checking people's photo ID. I showed mine and he still had difficulty matching my name on the list to the name on my polling card, even though everything was identical! They'll probably just stick a QR code on everyone soon. |
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rob62
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Post by rob62 on May 3, 2024 17:21:56 GMT 1
Accordingly to the number crunchers on Sky News, based on the local election results, Labour would fall short of a majority at Westminster
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Post by armchairfan on May 3, 2024 17:31:08 GMT 1
They don't declare our PCC until Saturday, what will be interesting will be the turn out as there was certainly a lot of apathy in my neck of the woods. We had no info whatsoever as to who was standing! Felt sorry for the two at our polling station when I called in just after 9pm - must have been a tediously slow day, even with the fun of checking people's photo ID. I showed mine and he still had difficulty matching my name on the list to the name on my polling card, even though everything was identical! They'll probably just stick a QR code on everyone soon. Your last few remarks bring to mind the words of Patrick McGoohan in "The Prisoner" TV series: "I will not be pushed, stamped, filed, indexed, briefed, debriefed or numbered....." Anyway,onwards ever onwards lol |
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Post by venceremos on May 3, 2024 18:15:53 GMT 1
Accordingly to the number crunchers on Sky News, based on the local election results, Labour would fall short of a majority at Westminster I wouldn't read too much into the results of some local elections in May, when the national election is likely to be 6 months away. However, I'd be happy to see that outcome because it would hopefully push Labour away from first past the post (where it only wins 1 in 3 elections) and towards a more modern and fairer voting system, where one of the big two parties doesn't always have control. What a disaster that's been recently. |
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Post by wookeywombat on May 3, 2024 20:36:54 GMT 1
I think the only election I've ever not voted in since 1979 was the first PCC. I didn't (and still don't really) understand how this could be an elected position when we know nothing about the incumbent or the other candidates. The very title, Police and Crime Commissioner, makes me think of Batman's chum, Commissioner Gordon. However, we got a leaflet from someone called Henry Curteis of something called the English Democrats, which just banged on about scrapping diversity targets and probably has the word "woke" in there somewhere but life's too short to read the whole thing. I asked my son what he thought the English Democrats' motto was - he got it in one: "putting England first" . Anyway, upshot is that I decided I had to record a vote for someone other than Curteis and his drivel. I voted Green - a Green PCC would be an interesting change. They don't declare our PCC until Saturday, what will be interesting will be the turn out as there was certainly a lot of apathy in my neck of the woods. We had no info whatsoever as to who was standing! Announced this afternoon Conservative retain:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqng2xpnw3o |
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Post by Valerioch on May 3, 2024 23:58:52 GMT 1
Only had a leaflet for the English Democrat chap, really liked a lot of the points but still couldn’t be arsed to vote for this… good to see it made no difference
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2024 10:33:19 GMT 1
They don't declare our PCC until Saturday, what will be interesting will be the turn out as there was certainly a lot of apathy in my neck of the woods. We had no info whatsoever as to who was standing! Announced this afternoon Conservative retain:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqqng2xpnw3oNearly 8 out of 10 voters didn't bother going to the polling station. |
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