|
|
Post by sheltonsalopian on May 5, 2023 8:58:22 GMT 1
Couldn't see a thread for it but pretty interesting so far. Labour and Lib Dems gaining at the expense of the Conservatives.
Labour appear to be winning back the Red Wall while the Conservatives seem to losing the Blue wall, but maybe not as many Labour gains as you would expect.
Thoughts?
|
|
|
|
Post by stuttgartershrew on May 5, 2023 9:50:43 GMT 1
Its like watching the vidiprinter coming in with all the results.  I think its pretty much gone as we all expected. Terrible results for the Tories with Labour and the Lib Dems making hay. It'll be interesting to see the turnout. |
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on May 5, 2023 9:58:10 GMT 1
I do feel a little for the Conservative Councillors losing their seats, as they are perhaps being punished for the last 18 months of national Conservative issues such as the Truss budget, Johnson's various problems and the economy problems, which they aren't directly responsible for.
Additionanally Conservative Councils have suffered just as much by the reducation in Central Government revenue support which has hit key Council services such as adult social care, road maintenance and education. Indeed some Conservative Councils have been very critical of the lack of support they get form Westminster.
The next 4 years are going to be very difficult for Local Councils and I'm not sure in a change in Political leadership will necessarily change much in terms of sevice delivery.
So far it does look like there is very much an anti Conservative vote, with tactical voting playing a big part, but I'm not sure that necessarily equals massive support for Labour, Lib Dem or Green policies
|
|
|
|
Post by staffordshrew on May 5, 2023 13:55:13 GMT 1
If one person was wrongly deprived of their right to vote due to the staff not accepting that the picture on their ID was them then it's a bad idea, brought in without asking the electorate. Is there any great need for it?
Perhaps there should have been a box to tick in a referendum in this election to see if people wanted photo id voting?
|
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 5, 2023 14:23:51 GMT 1
Intresting clip which suggests that the red wall has resulted in a labour gain and the blue south has resuled in a lib gain, in one of the comments that somone posted they claimed there was only a 17% turn out if true that is more dismall than usual, whilst understandable it is a pity as you would hope the higher the turn out the worst it would have been for the conservatives.
|
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 5, 2023 14:32:55 GMT 1
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 15:12:27 GMT 1
Very disappointing result in our ward, the long serving and hard working independent Councillor has lost her seat, to the...CONSERVATIVE candidate.
Turnout 46.4%
Overall turn out for Cheshire West & Chester Council: 36.1%
|
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 5, 2023 16:09:30 GMT 1
Very disappointing result in our ward, the long serving and hard working independent Councillor has lost her seat, to the...CONSERVATIVE candidate. Turnout 46.4% Overall turn out for Cheshire West & Chester Council: 36.1%strange result |
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 5, 2023 16:10:46 GMT 1
Intresting clip which suggests that the red wall has resulted in a labour gain and the blue south has resuled in a lib gain, in one of the comments that somone posted they claimed there was only a 17% turn out if true that is more dismall than usual, whilst understandable it is a pity as you would hope the higher the turn out the worst it would have been for the conservatives. you really would have hoped that labour would have done better than this |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 16:38:01 GMT 1
Very disappointing result in our ward, the long serving and hard working independent Councillor has lost her seat, to the...CONSERVATIVE candidate. Turnout 46.4% Overall turn out for Cheshire West & Chester Council: 36.1%strange result The Conservative candidate is very very well known in the community so it may have just come down to personalities and his social standing. |
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 5, 2023 17:01:24 GMT 1
The Conservative candidate is very very well known in the community so it may have just come down to personalities and his social standing. stilla shame to see a hard working person lose this way |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 17:04:20 GMT 1
The Conservative candidate is very very well known in the community so it may have just come down to personalities and his social standing. stilla shame to see a hard working person lose this way Definitely. The new Councillor has big shoes to fill. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 5, 2023 18:05:15 GMT 1
I have been elected to the local parish and town councils. As you all know I am a Labour supporter, but to see Starmer milking it like it was his policies that led to all the Labour gains is sickening. He backtracked on every one of his 10 pledges as soon as he won the vote. I don't trust the man.
|
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 210
|
Post by rob62 on May 5, 2023 19:41:25 GMT 1
While Labour has done well they have underperformed based on poll ratings.
On the other hand the Lib Dems as always exceed expectations when it comes to real votes.
I wish there had been elections in Shrophire... It would expected significant Lib Dem gains
|
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on May 5, 2023 20:01:42 GMT 1
While Labour has done well they have underperformed based on poll ratings. On the other hand the Lib Dems as always exceed expectations when it comes to real votes. I wish there had been elections in Shrophire... It would expected significant Lib Dem gains I think one of the interesting points to watch over the next 18 months is whether elction pacts - official or unofficial - start to form. As you say while the results for Labour are more due to a big decline in Conservative vote share, rather than a big surge in Labour votes. If Labour go it alone its far from certain they will get a majority or at least a significant working one, as over turnng a 80 seat Conservative majority is a big task even in the current climate. In seats like Shrewsbury and South Shropshire if Labour and Lib Dems both run campaigns to win those seats they are likey to split the vote and the Conservative MP's stay in, but if one party steps back as they did in the North Shopshire by election, there could be some big changes. Such pacts have been frowned on before but with tactical voting a lot easier to arrange now with online tools it could play a big role in the next general election |
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on May 5, 2023 21:13:45 GMT 1
The share of the vote reeks of a Hung Parliament if repeated next year, and nothing like a 20 poll lead for Labour that keeps getting churned out
People don’t trust Sir Keir on a range of issues
|
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on May 5, 2023 21:59:57 GMT 1
While Labour has done well they have underperformed based on poll ratings. On the other hand the Lib Dems as always exceed expectations when it comes to real votes. I wish there had been elections in Shrophire... It would expected significant Lib Dem gains I think one of the interesting points to watch over the next 18 months is whether elction pacts - official or unofficial - start to form. As you say while the results for Labour are more due to a big decline in Conservative vote share, rather than a big surge in Labour votes. If Labour go it alone its far from certain they will get a majority or at least a significant working one, as over turnng a 80 seat Conservative majority is a big task even in the current climate. In seats like Shrewsbury and South Shropshire if Labour and Lib Dems both run campaigns to win those seats they are likey to split the vote and the Conservative MP's stay in, but if one party steps back as they did in the North Shopshire by election, there could be some big changes. Such pacts have been frowned on before but with tactical voting a lot easier to arrange now with online tools it could play a big role in the next general election Far from stepping back, the Labour candidate for North Shropshire released false statistics which claimed that he was the only candidate capable of defeating the Tory. Fortunately, word of mouth coupled with the odds put out by the bookies was able to counteract these lies. |
|
|
|
Post by salop27 on May 5, 2023 22:04:13 GMT 1
While Labour has done well they have underperformed based on poll ratings. On the other hand the Lib Dems as always exceed expectations when it comes to real votes. I wish there had been elections in Shrophire... It would expected significant Lib Dem gains I think one of the interesting points to watch over the next 18 months is whether elction pacts - official or unofficial - start to form. As you say while the results for Labour are more due to a big decline in Conservative vote share, rather than a big surge in Labour votes. If Labour go it alone its far from certain they will get a majority or at least a significant working one, as over turnng a 80 seat Conservative majority is a big task even in the current climate. In seats like Shrewsbury and South Shropshire if Labour and Lib Dems both run campaigns to win those seats they are likey to split the vote and the Conservative MP's stay in, but if one party steps back as they did in the North Shopshire by election, there could be some big changes. Such pacts have been frowned on before but with tactical voting a lot easier to arrange now with online tools it could play a big role in the next general election Labour were/are never going to win in North Shropshire. A large elderly population will see to that. They see the completely inept Lib Dems as the anti government vote. |
|
|
|
Post by ssshrew on May 5, 2023 22:12:13 GMT 1
I have been elected to the local parish and town councils. As you all know I am a Labour supporter, but to see Starmer milking it like it was his policies that led to all the Labour gains is sickening. He backtracked on every one of his 10 pledges as soon as he won the vote. I don't trust the man. Well done. Mind you I suppose it is his job to milk it and some would criticise him if he didn’t. Unless he’s been having lessons from the greatest back tracker of them all - Nick Clegg. Now there is a man never to be trusted. |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 210
|
Post by rob62 on May 5, 2023 22:26:40 GMT 1
Come the General Election true blue Tories will never vote Labour..
Starmer is not well liked or trusted
The next set of Shropshire Council elections will show who the true challengers to the Tories are.
My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will be the only realistic option to oust the Tories in Shrewsbury and also South Shropshire. In Wrekin and also Telford constituency Labour will be the challengers
|
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on May 5, 2023 23:42:00 GMT 1
It's nothing short of a disgrace that people have to vote tactically rather than for their candidate of choice purely to make sure that the present government is thrown out. In the 2019 General Election one in every three voters (32%) opted for a tactical vote, instead of choosing their preferred party or candidate. In total, 14.5 million people (45.3% of all voters) cast their vote for a non-elected candidate. Of course, not every candidate or party can or should secure representation – but First Past the Post is brutal in denying millions of voters any representation at all. Other electoral systems redistribute preferences to ensure the outcomes reflect more accurately voters’ choices and diversity of opinion. www.electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-and-research/publications/the-2019-general-election-voters-left-voiceless/ |
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 6, 2023 9:31:46 GMT 1
Come the General Election true blue Tories will never vote Labour.. Starmer is not well liked or trusted The next set of Shropshire Council elections will show who the true challengers to the Tories are. My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will be the only realistic option to oust the Tories in Shrewsbury and also South Shropshire. In Wrekin and also Telford constituency Labour will be the challengers in the last shropshire council election the liberal candidate won and he seems very active and is aproachable and trys to do somthing about the local issues. |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 210
|
Post by rob62 on May 6, 2023 11:11:00 GMT 1
He certainly is active championing the issues that matter to his constituents in much the same way as Helen Morgan is active in North Shrophire fighting for a better deal for the North of the County
I have no idea who the Labour candidate is... Answers on a postcard please
|
|
|
|
Post by zenfootball2 on May 6, 2023 12:10:12 GMT 1
He certainly is active championing the issues that matter to his constituents in much the same way as Helen Morgan is active in North Shrophire fighting for a better deal for the North of the County I have no idea who the Labour candidate is... Answers on a postcard please he has been very vocal on potholes, poluttion of the river ( a topic close to my heart) , speed limits and other issues. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 8, 2023 19:39:32 GMT 1
Come the General Election true blue Tories will never vote Labour.. Starmer is not well liked or trusted The next set of Shropshire Council elections will show who the true challengers to the Tories are. My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will be the only realistic option to oust the Tories in Shrewsbury and also South Shropshire. In Wrekin and also Telford constituency Labour will be the challengers Realistically Labour have very little chance of turning North Shropshire or South Shropshire red and not really a great chance in Shrewsbury, so in my opinion should target their resources at the very winnable Telford and Wrekin seats. If Labour go hard after the other three constituencies they will only succeed in splitting the anti-Tory vote and handing them back to the Tories. The LibDems aren't going to win in Telford or the Wrekin so should spend their money in the rest of the county. This would work best for all parties (except the Tories of course) and hopefully end up with 5 non-Tory MPs in the county. If, as I fully expect, none of these things happen then we will probably see the whole county back in blue. It's time for Starmer and Davey to sit down and discuss what is best for the bloody country, rather than their egos. |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 210
|
Post by rob62 on May 8, 2023 21:17:57 GMT 1
Senior Labour MPs visit Telford on a fairly regular basis, but never venture further into Shropshire... That fact tells you all you need to know about which seats they think they can and need to win to be the largest party after the election
|
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on May 9, 2023 15:48:26 GMT 1
Come the General Election true blue Tories will never vote Labour.. Starmer is not well liked or trusted The next set of Shropshire Council elections will show who the true challengers to the Tories are. My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will be the only realistic option to oust the Tories in Shrewsbury and also South Shropshire. In Wrekin and also Telford constituency Labour will be the challengers Realistically Labour have very little chance of turning North Shropshire or South Shropshire red and not really a great chance in Shrewsbury, so in my opinion should target their resources at the very winnable Telford and Wrekin seats. If Labour go hard after the other three constituencies they will only succeed in splitting the anti-Tory vote and handing them back to the Tories. The LibDems aren't going to win in Telford or the Wrekin so should spend their money in the rest of the county. This would work best for all parties (except the Tories of course) and hopefully end up with 5 non-Tory MPs in the county. If, as I fully expect, none of these things happen then we will probably see the whole county back in blue. It's time for Starmer and Davey to sit down and discuss what is best for the bloody country, rather than their egos. Sadly, Labour is the biggest block with its leadership repeatedly claiming PR won’t be in its manifesto while rejecting cooperation. This could be electoral suicide. All the senior polling pundits predict Labour will struggle to win a majority at the next general election. With the local results suggesting a national-equivalent lead of just seven percentage points, everything points to a hung parliament. To put this in perspective, Ed Miliband did better and went on to lose in 2015, and in 1996 New Labour was 14 points ahead of the Tories. Last week brought a stark reminder of the absurdity of Labour not backing PR. In the Bedford mayoral election, the progressive vote was more than 30,000, the Tory vote just 16,000. But the Tories won by 145 votes. Progressives continue to divide, and the right continues to conquer. Labour has a choice. A future under our current first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system means the people with real influence are a few swing voters in a few swing seats, powerful media barons who set the news agenda and wealthy donors who shape the policy offer in their interests. The alternative is to appeal to the country’s latent progressive majority that goes back decades. Last Thursday, this progressive vote amounted to over 60%, while the Tories scored just 29%. To mobilise it means recognising that difference and diversity, within a broadly common value set, is a strength not a weakness and that the best future is negotiated not imposed. Critically it allows us to win elections by speaking to the interests of the centre and left, not the right. But why won’t Keir Starmer and Labour’s old guard take this seemingly obvious route to win, and go with the flow of last week’s results? Labour’s nervous hierarchy seems willing to do anything to maintain its monopoly of opposition and the disproportionate power it gives it. |
|
|
|
Post by mattmw on May 9, 2023 20:40:32 GMT 1
Come the General Election true blue Tories will never vote Labour.. Starmer is not well liked or trusted The next set of Shropshire Council elections will show who the true challengers to the Tories are. My gut feeling is that the Lib Dems will be the only realistic option to oust the Tories in Shrewsbury and also South Shropshire. In Wrekin and also Telford constituency Labour will be the challengers Realistically Labour have very little chance of turning North Shropshire or South Shropshire red and not really a great chance in Shrewsbury, so in my opinion should target their resources at the very winnable Telford and Wrekin seats. If Labour go hard after the other three constituencies they will only succeed in splitting the anti-Tory vote and handing them back to the Tories. The LibDems aren't going to win in Telford or the Wrekin so should spend their money in the rest of the county. This would work best for all parties (except the Tories of course) and hopefully end up with 5 non-Tory MPs in the county. If, as I fully expect, none of these things happen then we will probably see the whole county back in blue. It's time for Starmer and Davey to sit down and discuss what is best for the bloody country, rather than their egos. Think the Shrewsbury seat will be an interesting one to watch at the next election, for a range of reasons. In the Town Council Labour run the Council with the most seats, and the Greens and Liberal Dems won seats at the last local election broadly on a anti-North West Relief Road (NWWR) mandate which saw the then Conservative Leader lose his seat. Certainly in the Town area the Conservative vote is in the minority, and I suspect the opposition candidates will make the NWRR a big issue especially the sitting MP's support for it. The Conservatives are generally much stronger in the rural area of Shrewsbury, but the local association is far from united and had a bit of a falling out when Daniel K was reselected to stand last year. I also get the sense that the farming community in the area are far from happy with Conservative policy post brexit, and issues such as the quality of the River Severn, flooding and the relatively poor rating of Shrewsbury hospital are big issues which may see Conservative support fall away too. As you say whether an agreement is made for one party to "lead" the anti Conservative vote in the area is likely to be key to any chnage in MP. I suspect Labour and Lib Dems both think they can win the seat but if they both go for it they will split the anti conservative vote |
|
rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 210
|
Post by rob62 on May 10, 2023 11:45:03 GMT 1
I think the Lib Dems will push hard in Shrewsbury after gaining seats at the last Shropshire Council elections and success up the road in North Shrophire
The narrative will be that only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories, which to be honest is true in a lot of constituencys
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 10, 2023 13:23:07 GMT 1
Labour should still be thinking about going it alone at this point in time.
The talk of a potential coalition with either the Liberals or the SNP is a bit premature at this time.
|
|
