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Post by northwestman on Nov 5, 2022 19:26:33 GMT 1
Scrapping the second phase of HS2 would almost fill the £50bn black hole in the public finances, a report has found, as senior backbenchers called for its cancellation.
Research seen by The Telegraph found that that £26bn initial estimate for the second leg of the project from Birmingham to Manchester is likely to reach almost £40bn by 2040.
Conservative MPs said Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, should scrap the project instead of raising taxes and cutting spending in other areas.
The report was conducted by a group of engineering experts led by former mining engineer Trevor Parkin, in the Staffordshire town of Stone, near to where construction for the second phase will soon begin.
It argues that phase two of the project could be replaced with smaller rail upgrades, including the reopening of the North Staffordshire railway line to allow freight trains to travel cross-country.
The savings of scrapping the scheme were calculated by applying a conservative inflation estimate to its official costs, which have been published in 2019 prices.
The report also calls on ministers to sell back the land it has already bought for phase two – as the vast majority of construction work has yet to take place – and that it could do so at a higher price.
Greg Smith, the MP for Buckingham and a member of the Commons transport select committee, said scrapping HS2 “could solve virtually all of the Treasury’s problems right now”.
“It’s a massive white elephant that no test of public opinion has ever found support for, that is going to cost us billions, if not hundreds of billions, of pounds in its entirety.”
Daily Telegraph.
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HS2
Nov 14, 2022 12:13:52 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Nov 14, 2022 12:13:52 GMT 1
The Reform Party backs the scrapping of HS2.
There are 3 issues that will never be criticised to any degree by either of the main parties - HS2, Brexit, and the net zero strategy.
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Post by staffordshrew on Nov 14, 2022 12:25:47 GMT 1
We have no money, but we could save some money. What's to decide?
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Post by frankwellshrews on Nov 14, 2022 12:27:12 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money.
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Post by staffordshrew on Nov 14, 2022 12:43:02 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money. That's supposed to be where the engineer's report above comes in I think - what will drive economic activity, those freight trains chugging along full of containers on reopened lines, or people who can afford to pay through the nose to save half an hour? |
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HS2
Nov 14, 2022 12:58:41 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Nov 14, 2022 12:58:41 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money. In what way will HS2 drive economic activity and tax receipts? HS2 will cost taxpayers more than the benefits it will deliver, the Government has admitted for the first time. Analysis conducted by civil servants found that the rail project will now deliver just 90 pence in economic benefit for every £1 it costs, raising fresh questions about its existence ahead of this week’s Autumn Statement. The report, unearthed in a new paper by Policy Exchange, a centre-right think tank, comes after ministers said the first leg of the route is likely to overshoot its “target cost” as it burns through cash reserves. Conservative MPs have raised questions about the project, which was originally intended to cost £38 billion, but is now expected to exceed £100 billion by the time it is complete. The report also said that 43 per cent of the economic benefits of HS2 will be felt by those living in London and the South East, despite ministers’ claims it would be a major component of the Government’s “levelling up” project. A Department of Transport (DfT) spokesman said the report was “incorrect” because the figures also say HS2 will provide a 10 per cent return on investment when “wider economic impacts” are factored in. But Policy Exchange said those had been exaggerated and were likely to be outweighed by underestimated construction costs and anticipated delays. HS2 is currently supporting 29,000 jobs. Daily Telegraph. HS2 certainly supports jobs! www.railway.supply/en/the-salaries-of-hs2-project-managers-have-been-revealed-in-britain/HS2 project manager Mark Thurston reportedly earned £ 625,000. About 46 HS2 executives continue to receive more than £ 150,000, despite the fact that the railway project has been significantly reduced. Thurston became the highest paid civil servant. For comparison: the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom earns a little more than 150 thousand pounds for governing the country. |
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Post by frankwellshrews on Nov 14, 2022 13:14:36 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money. That's supposed to be where the engineer's report above comes in I think - what will drive economic activity, those freight trains chugging along full of containers on reopened lines, or people who can afford to pay through the nose to save half an hour? The "save half an hour" rhetoric is a red herring. The point of HS2 is to increase capacity on existing lines. If that can be done by upgrading existing infrastructure then great but I'm sure I'm not the only one who's skeptical about that actually happening. |
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Post by frankwellshrews on Nov 14, 2022 13:20:47 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money. In what way will HS2 drive economic activity and tax receipts? HS2 will cost taxpayers more than the benefits it will deliver, the Government has admitted for the first time. Analysis conducted by civil servants found that the rail project will now deliver just 90 pence in economic benefit for every £1 it costs, raising fresh questions about its existence ahead of this week’s Autumn Statement. The report, unearthed in a new paper by Policy Exchange, a centre-right think tank, comes after ministers said the first leg of the route is likely to overshoot its “target cost” as it burns through cash reserves. Conservative MPs have raised questions about the project, which was originally intended to cost £38 billion, but is now expected to exceed £100 billion by the time it is complete. The report also said that 43 per cent of the economic benefits of HS2 will be felt by those living in London and the South East, despite ministers’ claims it would be a major component of the Government’s “levelling up” project. A Department of Transport (DfT) spokesman said the report was “incorrect” because the figures also say HS2 will provide a 10 per cent return on investment when “wider economic impacts” are factored in. But Policy Exchange said those had been exaggerated and were likely to be outweighed by underestimated construction costs and anticipated delays. HS2 is currently supporting 29,000 jobs. Daily Telegraph. HS2 certainly supports jobs! www.railway.supply/en/the-salaries-of-hs2-project-managers-have-been-revealed-in-britain/HS2 project manager Mark Thurston reportedly earned £ 625,000. About 46 HS2 executives continue to receive more than £ 150,000, despite the fact that the railway project has been significantly reduced. Thurston became the highest paid civil servant. For comparison: the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom earns a little more than 150 thousand pounds for governing the country. Seems like an odd question to me; HS2 will free up capacity on the rail network, which will make it cheaper and easier for more people to travel. The most economically successful part of the UK trades on its hugely successful transport network; we want that for more of the rest of the country. Don't get the jobs criticism either; 29k jobs, lots of them skilled and high paying. That's what we want isn't it? |
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HS2
Nov 14, 2022 13:23:57 GMT 1
Post by staffordshrew on Nov 14, 2022 13:23:57 GMT 1
"About 46 HS2 executives continue to receive more than £ 150,000, despite the fact that the railway project has been significantly reduced.
Thurston became the highest paid civil servant. For comparison: the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom earns a little more than 150 thousand pounds for governing the country".
That's why you get some of the "entitled" ones you do running the country....
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Post by davycrockett on Nov 14, 2022 15:54:06 GMT 1
We have no money, but we could save some money. What's to decide? Scrapping it would cost millions if not billions too with contracts signed, compulsory purchases made and also affect GROWTH investment, employment (currently28,000 jobs) so not so easy to decid. |
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HS2
Nov 14, 2022 16:03:06 GMT 1
Post by staffordshrew on Nov 14, 2022 16:03:06 GMT 1
We have no money, but we could save some money. What's to decide? Scrapping it would cost millions if not billions too with contracts signed, compulsory purchases made and also affect GROWTH investment, employment (currently28,000 jobs) so not so easy to decid. It's the North bit i'm talking about so not so far advanced. The question of HS2 costing too much to cancel is all that has kept it going this far - but now bullets have to be bit.... |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Nov 14, 2022 16:33:06 GMT 1
I don't really get this idea of the £50bn "plugging the black hole". It's overly simplistic. You're talking about not proceeding with development of a national asset that will drive economic activity (and tax receipts) for decades to come to fill a one off budget gap which will leave us nothing to show for that money. That's supposed to be where the engineer's report above comes in I think - what will drive economic activity, those freight trains chugging along full of containers on reopened lines, or people who can afford to pay through the nose to save half an hour? increasing freight capacity makes sense, my friend who used to work for the railways said to me , when people say reduce pollution by shifting freight on to the railways, sounds a god idea but there is no capacity to do it. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Nov 14, 2022 18:06:17 GMT 1
Imagine a Britain where the trains go really fast. Then imagine a Britain where the number of lorries on the M1, M6 and M62 was reduced because there was a cheap 50MPH freight transport system on the raillways - maybe offering things like the scope to complete a delivery into city centres with low polution vehicles. With just a little enticement for firms: being cheaper!
Would a lower cost railway, using old hardly used lines where possible not be the greater benefit to Britain?
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Post by zenfootball2 on Nov 15, 2022 13:30:32 GMT 1
Imagine a Britain where the trains go really fast. Then imagine a Britain where the number of lorries on the M1, M6 and M62 was reduced because there was a cheap 50MPH freight transport system on the raillways - maybe offering things like the scope to complete a delivery into city centres with low polution vehicles. With just a little enticement for firms: being cheaper! Would a lower cost railway, using old hardly used lines where possible not be the greater benefit to Britain? it would and it would be great to do so, two issues freight capacity is currently very nearly running at maximum. freight hubs would need to be increased and that would be a significant benefit the big bonuses; less lorrys on the road, a significant reduction on poluttion, any future developments in our big citys would need to factor in the devlopments around or ner to a rail / lorry freight terminal to reduces lorrys to short journeys to deliver food and other goods to the shopping centers |
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Post by staffordshrew on Nov 15, 2022 13:47:53 GMT 1
Imagine a Britain where the trains go really fast. Then imagine a Britain where the number of lorries on the M1, M6 and M62 was reduced because there was a cheap 50MPH freight transport system on the raillways - maybe offering things like the scope to complete a delivery into city centres with low polution vehicles. With just a little enticement for firms: being cheaper! Would a lower cost railway, using old hardly used lines where possible not be the greater benefit to Britain? it would and it would be great to do so, two issues freight capacity is currently very nearly running at maximum. freight hubs would need to be increased and that would be a significant benefit the big bonuses; less lorrys on the road, a significant reduction on poluttion, any future developments in our big citys would need to factor in the devlopments around or ner to a rail / lorry freight terminal to reduces lorrys to short journeys to deliver food and other goods to the shopping centers I would hope to see so many less lorries on the road that we didn't need to spend so much on motorways. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but I prefer to see railway lines rather than four lane motorways. |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Nov 15, 2022 19:13:34 GMT 1
it would and it would be great to do so, two issues freight capacity is currently very nearly running at maximum. freight hubs would need to be increased and that would be a significant benefit the big bonuses; less lorrys on the road, a significant reduction on poluttion, any future developments in our big citys would need to factor in the devlopments around or ner to a rail / lorry freight terminal to reduces lorrys to short journeys to deliver food and other goods to the shopping centers I would hope to see so many less lorries on the road that we didn't need to spend so much on motorways. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but I prefer to see railway lines rather than four lane motorways. im on the same page as you, it would significantly reduce pollution |
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Nov 15, 2022 19:13:59 GMT 1
Post by zenfootball2 on Nov 15, 2022 19:13:59 GMT 1
it would and it would be great to do so, two issues freight capacity is currently very nearly running at maximum. freight hubs would need to be increased and that would be a significant benefit the big bonuses; less lorrys on the road, a significant reduction on poluttion, any future developments in our big citys would need to factor in the devlopments around or ner to a rail / lorry freight terminal to reduces lorrys to short journeys to deliver food and other goods to the shopping centers I would hope to see so many less lorries on the road that we didn't need to spend so much on motorways. Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but I prefer to see railway lines rather than four lane motorways.  |
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Nov 17, 2022 11:23:09 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Nov 17, 2022 11:23:09 GMT 1
Among the Tory critics, former cabinet minister Esther McVey has warned she will not support tax rises without the scrapping of the 'unnecessary vanity project' of HS2. www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-63651136 |
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Post by northwestman on Nov 17, 2022 12:34:19 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/14/uk-finances-black-hole-hs2-vanity-projectIn April 2020, the then chancellor Rishi Sunak gave his approval to a new railway to Birmingham, expected to cost £44bn. Contracts were promptly signed. The overall HS2 project is estimated at £100bn. An infuriated Whitehall official told me at the time: “Never let that man say he cannot afford any item of public expenditure.” The ambition was soon trimmed. HS2 will no longer go to Yorkshire, only to Birmingham and Manchester. A 10-year-old plan for Euston station, on which more than £100m has already been spent, must be radically redesigned. Rail passenger numbers even in the Midlands have fallen, leaving HS2 largely to benefit commuters into Birmingham and from London’s home counties. . This enormous sum is, eerily, not far off the annual “black hole” in British borrowing that the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, says he must fill in this week’s budget. The roughly £7bn a year to 2029 is more than is planned for all England’s school buildings and only a billion short of last year’s NHS capital budget. It would more than meet the social care uplift promised by Boris Johnson but not yet awarded. Sunak’s chancellor claims he wants to crack down on “outrageous” waste of public money. Yet in 2018 it was revealed that £4.1bn had been spent before work even began, with “consultants” getting £600m. The extravagance of the project has been condemned by Whitehall economists, public accounts committee chairs and project assessors galore. Its backers now claim it is too far advanced to cancel, with giant boring engines deep under the Chilterns. Yet those with noses firmly in the public trough always claim this. If terminated, HS2 will have cost some £8bn, though many of its London acquisitions – including the land of 400 destroyed Camden homes – must be worth a fortune. But stopping it would save gigantic sums. In addition, billions of pounds could be diverted to rail projects that are really needed, in the north and in Wales, and are being sidelined by the Treasury to pay for HS2. Cancellation would release an army of 26,000 building workers into Britain’s chronically short-staffed construction industry.
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Nov 17, 2022 13:10:50 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Nov 17, 2022 13:10:50 GMT 1
As I anticipated, Hunt and Sunak are not touching HS2.
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Nov 17, 2022 13:31:58 GMT 1
Post by staffordshrew on Nov 17, 2022 13:31:58 GMT 1
As I anticipated, Hunt and Sunak are not touching HS2. Nettle not grasped yet again. |
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Post by northwestman on Jan 27, 2023 10:43:28 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64421566The government says it is committed to delivering the HS2 rail line to Manchester after a report the scheme may no longer reach central London. The Sun reported that rising inflation and construction costs meant HS2 trains may terminate in the suburbs of west London instead. The paper said bosses were considering pushing back its Euston terminus to 2038, or scrapping it completely. The government has not denied the report. The move would mean trains would run from a new hub at Old Oak Common, about 8km (five miles) away, and commuters would have to use the Elizabeth Line or Tube to travel to central London. A two to five-year delay to the entire project is also being considered, the newspaper said. www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/hs2-euston-terminal-scrap-delay-costs-brimingham-manchester-leeds-b1056021.htmlThrow in the fact that the new HS2 station at Birmingham, Curzon Street, is a significant distance away from New Street, and this becomes more of an omnishambles by the minute!
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Jan 27, 2023 11:53:32 GMT 1
Post by kenwood on Jan 27, 2023 11:53:32 GMT 1
New transport routes and improvements ? are always a contentious issue .
I’m all for reducing the amount of traffic on our roads .
Perhaps opening up some of our waterways could be looked at 😳
By the way, how’s our NW Relief Road project getting on. Has it been approved in all its majesty yet or are the County County still undecided .
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Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2023 12:27:52 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64421566The government says it is committed to delivering the HS2 rail line to Manchester after a report the scheme may no longer reach central London. The Sun reported that rising inflation and construction costs meant HS2 trains may terminate in the suburbs of west London instead. The paper said bosses were considering pushing back its Euston terminus to 2038, or scrapping it completely. The government has not denied the report. The move would mean trains would run from a new hub at Old Oak Common, about 8km (five miles) away, and commuters would have to use the Elizabeth Line or Tube to travel to central London. A two to five-year delay to the entire project is also being considered, the newspaper said. www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/hs2-euston-terminal-scrap-delay-costs-brimingham-manchester-leeds-b1056021.htmlThrow in the fact that the new HS2 station at Birmingham, Curzon Street, is a significant distance away from New Street, and this becomes more of an omnishambles by the minute! It has been a flustercuck since day 1 and every time it makes the news cycle again it just gets worse. |
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Jan 27, 2023 12:46:22 GMT 1
Post by staffordshrew on Jan 27, 2023 12:46:22 GMT 1
They say HS2 might not reach central london, I dont even count it reaching Euston as the centre. Perhaps it would have been more sensible, cheaper, to do something from a "Parkway" to Birmingham? Terminating in direct connection to the Underground.
As for up North, leeds to Manchester ought to be next.
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Jan 27, 2023 13:17:06 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Jan 27, 2023 13:17:06 GMT 1
I believe it will cost the Government circa £32 billion to cancel it right now because of existing contracts.
Boris signed this lunacy off. He's always been a fan of trains and bridges.
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Mar 9, 2023 17:04:37 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Mar 9, 2023 17:04:37 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/09/hs2-costs-soar-as-ministers-prepare-to-deliver-more-bad-news-on-timetableMinisters are set to delay construction of key sections of the HS2 rail line, with a statement expected imminently outlining the extent of budget overruns amid soaring inflation. It is understood that parts of the high-speed network between Crewe and Birmingham are likely to be delayed or trimmed, while full running of trains into London Euston may also be held off further. At least £2bn more will be needed for the first London-Birmingham stretch alone since the last official update in October, well above the contingency sums in the initial £44.6bn funding, casting doubt over prospects for the full network’s delivery.
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Post by northwestman on Mar 25, 2023 21:09:00 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/25/a-complete-mess-fury-in-north-london-over-hs2s-big-hole-in-the-groundSix years after turning the first spade at Euston station, it’s hard for local people to see HS2 as anything other than levelling down. Hundreds of homes have been demolished. A school, a pub and other businesses have been knocked down or starved of customers. Families have been separated. Now the project has been put on hold and the builders are moving out, leaving a mile-long hole. Since the announcement by transport secretary Mark Harper on 9 March that HS2 would be delayed by two years due to rising costs, hundreds of workers at Euston have been redeployed or face redundancy.
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Mar 26, 2023 13:39:22 GMT 1
Post by kenwood on Mar 26, 2023 13:39:22 GMT 1
Never mind, the hundreds of workers could come up here to Middle Earth and work on the NWR Road.
When that’s finished the Town Centre project could do with a kick start .
Always a silver lining 😂😂👍
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Jul 13, 2023 23:33:40 GMT 1
Post by northwestman on Jul 13, 2023 23:33:40 GMT 1
The HS2 project remains wrong. Possibly the most iconic manifestation of an era of “government by shiny thing”. Projections on its final cost vary wildly, but analysis by Lord Berkeley shows how it could end up well over £165 billion, if future phases north of Birmingham ever happen. Let’s not forget the current iteration of HS2 goes absolutely nowhere useful. No Euston. No Birmingham New Street. But from a glorified bus shelter in West London to an inconvenient location in Birmingham. The time anyone saves from “high speed” travel will be more than eaten into getting to the respective city centres. People will question why they didn’t just use the West Coast Main Line or Chiltern Line in the first place.
Daily Telegraph.
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