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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 14:51:28 GMT 1
'The biggest unanswered question, though, was the one that has been left hanging over every press conference. Why is Germany handling the crisis so much better than us? Some projections suggest the German death rate from the coronavirus will be about 10% of ours. What’s their secret? Raab, Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance all just shrugged their shoulders. They had no idea. Or none fit for public consumption'. John Crace - The Guardian. I’m not defending our leaders and the way they’ve managed the outbreak but only history will show the mistakes that have been made both since the outbreak, leading up to the outbreak and more importantly the running down of the NHS historically but.... They keep reporting that Germany don’t list a death as down the the virus if there’s a serious underlying health problem this goes on the death certificate ..... so with an average of 1700 deaths a day normally how many of the 900 odd yesterday would have been counted in Germany compared to here? That's as much our fault. Since we have classified coronavirus as a 'notifiable disease', it has to be mentioned on the death certificate even though something else was primarily the cause of death. And with virtually no autopsies, as bodies have to be disposed of as soon as is reasonably practicable, the coronavirus deaths in UK could well be exaggerated. There is a world of difference between a death because of coronavirus and a death where coronavirus was present. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 15:02:23 GMT 1
China, Iran, Russia, North Korea and a few others - stats are likely to be completely unreliable.
Germany - they could well have skewed their stats as suggested by davycrockett.
Italy, Spain, France, UK - have failed to differentiate between deaths caused by coronavirus and deaths where coronavirus was present. Some have also been reticent to include deaths in care homes and the community in the figures.
Nevertheless, it still leaves the UK with a number of questions to answer.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Apr 12, 2020 15:05:25 GMT 1
I'm very far from being a Tory supporter but the Germany question is unfair and poorly thought out.
Any one with even a small amount of experience in data analysis can tell you that all that kind of variance is telling you is you're comparing apples with oranges. If I had to guess I'd say Germany is testing far more people and therefore including all of the mild or asymptomatic cases which the UK is missing plus Germany doesn't test for Covid post mortem so likely misses out a number of deaths in old people's homes and the like. Both factors will serve to reduce the mortality rate statistic.
There's no denying that the government response to this was botched to put it politely; not taking early action, failure to purchase equipment, ten years of Tory austerity reducing capacity in the system. They will have to take their share of the blame when all this is over. But we are not 10 times worse than Germany (nor are Spain and Italy) and this line of willful credulity is not helpful right now.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 15:12:39 GMT 1
They keep reporting that Germany don’t list a death as down to the virus if there’s a serious underlying health problem. This goes on the death certificate, so with an average of 1700 deaths a day normally, how many of the 900 odd yesterday would have been counted in Germany compared to here? You'd have thought that our Ministers would have been on to this explanation like rats up a drainpipe when being continually asked why Germany are doing better than we are. The reason they haven't I suppose is that indirectly they'd be admitting that our stats are dodgy too. |
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Post by ( you know who from b&a ) on Apr 12, 2020 16:11:36 GMT 1
Sir Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, said it was possible the UK could end up with the worst coronavirus death rate in Europe. wait, he said we could be one of the highest ones I mean **** me who needs Nostradamus when this bloke is around my garden gate could have predicted that |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 16:29:49 GMT 1
It’s hard, as we lock down, to nurture an outrage that is based on decisions in the past when the loss of life is happening today – more so when the government has stealthily removed itself from the picture and shifted the responsibility entirely on to the public, responding to any concerns by robotically repeating the mantra: “Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives”. So, as lives are extinguished in their hundreds every day, we become busied with questions of policing, of social distancing, of shutting down parks, rather than on the government’s failed policymaking.
The Guardian.
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Post by wakemanender on Apr 12, 2020 16:34:21 GMT 1
Once this is all over and we get back to normal there will no doubt be a big inquest into how we dealt with it and the individual errors by certain ministers. For me only Rishi Sunark is going to come out of it with any credit. Very impressive performance to date for someone so new to the government. Boris himself I think has also been very positive and hard working. Not an easy introduction for a new prime minister with Brexit and then straight onto a pandemic.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 16:43:24 GMT 1
I'm very far from being a Tory supporter but the Germany question is unfair and poorly thought out. Any one with even a small amount of experience in data analysis can tell you that all that kind of variance is telling you is you're comparing apples with oranges. If I had to guess I'd say Germany is testing far more people and therefore including all of the mild or asymptomatic cases which the UK is missing plus Germany doesn't test for Covid post mortem so likely misses out a number of deaths in old people's homes and the like. Both factors will serve to reduce the mortality rate statistic. There's no denying that the government response to this was botched to put it politely; not taking early action, failure to purchase equipment, ten years of Tory austerity reducing capacity in the system. They will have to take their share of the blame when all this is over. But we are not 10 times worse than Germany (nor are Spain and Italy) and this line of willful credulity is not helpful right now. "About three weeks ago I thought it might be apples and pears. I investigated the German reporting system. It’s apples and apples". Andrew Neil. |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 12, 2020 16:51:22 GMT 1
Once this is all over and we get back to normal there will no doubt be a big inquest into how we dealt with it and the individual errors by certain ministers. For me only Rishi Sunark is going to come out of it with any credit. Very impressive performance to date for someone so new to the government. Boris himself I think has also been very positive and hard working. Not an easy introduction for a new prime minister with Brexit and then straight onto a pandemic. well if past investigations are anything to go by we will get , we have learnt some important lessons and we will implement new policies, whilst no one will be held accountable and no one will get sacked. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 16:57:51 GMT 1
Matt Hancock:- Today I wanted to outline the next step: a new NHS app for contact tracing. If you become unwell with the symptoms of coronavirus, you can securely tell this new NHS app and the app will then send an alert anonymously to other app users that you’ve been in significant contact with over the past few days, even before you had symptoms, so that they know and can act accordingly.
All data will be handled according to the highest ethical and security standards, and would only be used for NHS care and research, and we won’t hold it any longer than it’s needed. And as part of our commitment to transparency we’ll be publishing the source code, too.
We’re already testing this app and as we do this we’re working closely with the world’s leading tech companies and renowned experts in digital safety and ethics.”
This assumes that all the population are familiar with 'apps'. As someone who has survived with a basic Nokia for years and only has a vague idea what an app is, let alone not having the ability to download one, I suspect I might be out of the loop here. I suspect that many others will be too.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 12, 2020 16:59:56 GMT 1
Once this is all over and we get back to normal there will no doubt be a big inquest into how we dealt with it and the individual errors by certain ministers. For me only Rishi Sunark is going to come out of it with any credit. Very impressive performance to date for someone so new to the government. Boris himself I think has also been very positive and hard working. Not an easy introduction for a new prime minister with Brexit and then straight onto a pandemic. well if past investigations are anything to go by we will get , we have learnt some important lessons and we will implement new policies, whilst no one will be held accountable and no one will get sacked. And then the same mistakes will be made all over again. Social services and the police are two very good examples. |
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Post by frankwellshrews on Apr 12, 2020 17:05:17 GMT 1
I'm very far from being a Tory supporter but the Germany question is unfair and poorly thought out. Any one with even a small amount of experience in data analysis can tell you that all that kind of variance is telling you is you're comparing apples with oranges. If I had to guess I'd say Germany is testing far more people and therefore including all of the mild or asymptomatic cases which the UK is missing plus Germany doesn't test for Covid post mortem so likely misses out a number of deaths in old people's homes and the like. Both factors will serve to reduce the mortality rate statistic. There's no denying that the government response to this was botched to put it politely; not taking early action, failure to purchase equipment, ten years of Tory austerity reducing capacity in the system. They will have to take their share of the blame when all this is over. But we are not 10 times worse than Germany (nor are Spain and Italy) and this line of willful credulity is not helpful right now. "About three weeks ago I thought it might be apples and pears. I investigated the German reporting system. It’s apples and apples". Andrew Neil. What s he basing that on though? I've see a few espousing similar views but very little actual facts which defeat the theory. Not saying I disagree, just im not sure what the evidence is. On this evidence, both the us and Germany have very similar mortality rates. Seem like odd bedfellows but also, if what they are doing is do radically different to everyone else, why aren't they sharing? |
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Post by claphamshrew on Apr 12, 2020 23:06:26 GMT 1
Whilst not bulletproof it has been suggested that the most accurate way of assessing the number of deaths directly caused by Covid-19 is by comparing the number of total deaths in the UK with the same period last year, and the year before that, and the year before that etc.
This along with comparing ICU admissions in the same period would be the best indicator IMO.
It would also be interesting to see if the number of deaths by heart disease, cancer, COPD etc. have fallen given Covid-19 seemingly takes precedent on U.K. death certificates. And if they have, have they in Germany too?
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 13, 2020 11:01:44 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/sport/football/shrewsbury-town-fc/2020/04/13/sam-ricketts-shrewsbury-town-players-had-coronavirus-symptoms/“I’m sure there were some of our lads with symptoms and who had it – but maybe didn’t even know they had it. “Some others might have had it but only with very minor symptoms and nothing too serious, no-one had severe medical attention. “But there were a number of players who had symptoms of Covid-19.” Ricketts explained that players were still continuing with individual training programmes during lockdown and that the club will look to ramp things up ahead of the return to training." "The boss detailed how players have been able to use the time to rest their bodies, recharge and – in some cases – recover from injuries. Ollie Norburn is stepping up his rehab from a season-ending knee injury, but is now in ‘limbo’ as he awaits a post-op check-up on his progress. Shaun Whalley and Conor McAleny have recovered from muscle injuries while Romain Vincelot is back from ground-breaking hip surgery. Defender Aaron Pierre is still carrying the muscle problem that forced him out of Shrews’ last game, the late 3-2 home reverse to Oxford. “Norbs is doing really, really well. He’s been really unfortunate that he can’t have face-to-face treatment,” the boss added. “He’s been working really hard at home, very closely with the medical team on Facetime "
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Post by ( you know who from b&a ) on Apr 13, 2020 12:58:52 GMT 1
would be interesting to see and play with a version of this
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Post by wakemanender on Apr 13, 2020 13:09:37 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/sport/football/shrewsbury-town-fc/2020/04/13/sam-ricketts-shrewsbury-town-players-had-coronavirus-symptoms/“I’m sure there were some of our lads with symptoms and who had it – but maybe didn’t even know they had it. “Some others might have had it but only with very minor symptoms and nothing too serious, no-one had severe medical attention. “But there were a number of players who had symptoms of Covid-19.” Ricketts explained that players were still continuing with individual training programmes during lockdown and that the club will look to ramp things up ahead of the return to training." "The boss detailed how players have been able to use the time to rest their bodies, recharge and – in some cases – recover from injuries. Ollie Norburn is stepping up his rehab from a season-ending knee injury, but is now in ‘limbo’ as he awaits a post-op check-up on his progress. Shaun Whalley and Conor McAleny have recovered from muscle injuries while Romain Vincelot is back from ground-breaking hip surgery. Defender Aaron Pierre is still carrying the muscle problem that forced him out of Shrews’ last game, the late 3-2 home reverse to Oxford. “Norbs is doing really, really well. He’s been really unfortunate that he can’t have face-to-face treatment,” the boss added. “He’s been working really hard at home, very closely with the medical team on Facetime " Good to be reminded of some town players names. |
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Post by davycrockett on Apr 13, 2020 14:35:26 GMT 1
Does make you wonder, Portsmouth players showed no symptoms but got tested, privately I guess? Shrewsbury players showed symptoms and didn’t get tested.....not a criticism of Shrewsbury more wondering what Portsmouth and others are doing testing people who aren’t showing symptoms... or have,I missed something?
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Post by ( you know who from b&a ) on Apr 13, 2020 14:39:47 GMT 1
Does make you wonder, Portsmouth players showed no symptoms but got tested, privately I guess? Shrewsbury players showed symptoms and didn’t get tested.....not a criticism of Shrewsbury more wondering what Portsmouth and others are doing testing people who aren’t showing symptoms... or have,I missed something? probably why Pompey go bust every so often and still play in a working museum of a ground |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 13, 2020 17:16:06 GMT 1
Aarrgghh!
Raab - 'we are guided by the scientific and medical advice'.
PLEASE stop parroting this!
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Post by LetchworthShrew on Apr 14, 2020 11:13:01 GMT 1
Does make you wonder, Portsmouth players showed no symptoms but got tested, privately I guess? Shrewsbury players showed symptoms and didn’t get tested.....not a criticism of Shrewsbury more wondering what Portsmouth and others are doing testing people who aren’t showing symptoms... or have,I missed something? Playing safe I guess as people can have it and not show any symptoms.
Kenny Dalglish was admiteed a few days ago to hospital with an infection that needed intravenous antibiotics. He was routinely tested for cornavirus and was found positive despite showing no symptoms.
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Post by salop27 on Apr 14, 2020 12:14:19 GMT 1
Whilst not bulletproof it has been suggested that the most accurate way of assessing the number of deaths directly caused by Covid-19 is by comparing the number of total deaths in the UK with the same period last year, and the year before that, and the year before that etc. This along with comparing ICU admissions in the same period would be the best indicator IMO. It would also be interesting to see if the number of deaths by heart disease, cancer, COPD etc. have fallen given Covid-19 seemingly takes precedent on U.K. death certificates. And if they have, have they in Germany too? Data released this morning shows 16377 deaths registered in England and Wales for week ending 3rd April. One in five death certificates mentioned cvd19. The 16377 was the highest weekly amount recorded since deaths were recorded in this way, starting from 2005. The 16377 total is 6000 more then the weekly average from 5 years of figures. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 14, 2020 12:36:34 GMT 1
Whilst not bulletproof it has been suggested that the most accurate way of assessing the number of deaths directly caused by Covid-19 is by comparing the number of total deaths in the UK with the same period last year, and the year before that, and the year before that etc. Data released this morning shows 16377 deaths registered in England and Wales for week ending 3rd April. One in five death certificates mentioned cvd19. The 16377 was the highest weekly amount recorded since deaths were recorded in this way, starting from 2005. The 16377 total is 6000 more then the weekly average from 5 years of figures. Seems a bit surprising that only one in five death certificates mentioned cvd-19. That would be 3275, yet 6000 above average deaths? You would think that road traffic accident and industry deaths would have reduced and balanced out some of the rise in deaths due to cvd-19. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 14, 2020 12:39:47 GMT 1
How not to answer a question:-
'When asked why Germany – which in the week ending 4 April was carrying out an average of 116,655 swab tests a day – had been able to test so many people and keep deaths relatively low, Vallance said testing was “an incredibly important part of how we need to manage this going forward”.
However, he added, there were “all sorts of reasons” why Germany had had only 3,194 deaths at that time, compared with 11,329 in UK hospitals, cautioning that its high volume of testing should not be automatically linked with the low death toll'
The Guardian.
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Post by LetchworthShrew on Apr 15, 2020 10:25:19 GMT 1
Following on from Trump's attack on the media at Monday's press conference he has now announced the US are withdrawing funding from the WHO pending a review which could last up to 3 months!!! He's blaming them for not being tougher on China at the start of the outbreak www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52289056 |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2020 12:49:52 GMT 1
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Post by northwestman on Apr 16, 2020 15:20:58 GMT 1
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Post by ( you know who from b&a ) on Apr 16, 2020 16:07:36 GMT 1
I've delivered to hundreds of farms, cant say i've ever been to one that hasn't made me envious of how much money I suspect they have |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 16, 2020 16:41:29 GMT 1
I've delivered to hundreds of farms, cant say i've ever been to one that hasn't made me envious of how much money I suspect they have That's why even a monkey with a Blue Rosette would win North Shropshire. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 16, 2020 16:54:07 GMT 1
This morning we could have been listening to official broadcasting in China or North Korea - a government minister telling the public that too much information is a bad thing, that only politicians will decide when to reveal the next step in this battle with a fatal disease. A battle that not only affects human life but is also decimating our economy and could bankrupt the country.
For three weeks now the government have been treating the public like children, dishing out the same simple messages over and over again.
Stay at home, don't go out, wash your hands, observe social distancing - do all this to protect Our NHS and save lives. Can there be anyone in the UK who doesn't know and understand the rules by now? Even my dog could probably bark them out.
Every day at 5pm, a series of lacklustre ministers flanked by scientists and medical experts robotically reel out the latest death toll and announce that testing is increasing - using language that is intended to pactify and sedate a population increasingly begging for answers.
Daily Mail.
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Post by LetchworthShrew on Apr 16, 2020 17:57:03 GMT 1
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