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Post by davycrockett on Dec 11, 2018 15:31:27 GMT 1
I always come back to the fact that the under 45's voted overwhelmingly to remain. The older generations (myself included) do not necessarily know best and many of us will not be around to witness whatever occurs. Perhaps the younger generation have a greater vision for Europe rather than having their opinions clouded by the past. And with the change since the referendum (oldies dying and teenagers becoming of age) the result would naturally change to remain. I voted remain but can see the arguments against another vote BUT no one against can tell me what will happen on 29th March with no deal..will a border be necessary in Eire to stop t(e 1000’s of migrants coming over an open border, will the Shropshire Tenor be able to catch his ferry to France? Will life saving drugs be allowed to cross the border into the country? Will EU footy players be able to ply their trade here without a visa? Too many unanswered questions to risk no deal and EU won’t improve the deal on the table so what’s the answer
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 16:29:54 GMT 1
This response is symptomatic of a lot that was wrong with the Leave campaign who on one notable occasion said they would refuse to listen to experts. You would far rather take the opinions of a very small coterie of persons rather than the very much larger survey by IPSOS which was also broadly supported by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The problem is that despite what all the polls say, the people I have spoken to which is quite a lot, do not represent what the polls say, which then brings in to question the accuracy.
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Post by keithb123 on Dec 11, 2018 16:41:16 GMT 1
This response is symptomatic of a lot that was wrong with the Leave campaign who on one notable occasion said they would refuse to listen to experts. You would far rather take the opinions of a very small coterie of persons rather than the very much larger survey by IPSOS which was also broadly supported by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The problem is that despite what all the polls say, the people I have spoken to which is quite a lot, do not represent what the polls say, which then brings in to question the accuracy. I have to agree Downie. I find that whenever there is a debate the TV companies always seem to load things in favour of the remainers. Like you have have discussions with friends, family, colleagues and non of those who voted leave have changed their mind and in fact two friends who were staunch remainers now say they'd accept NO DEAL rather than this attempt to appease both the remainers and the EU. Also no one I know has ever been asked for their opinion by any kind of poll or survey, I'm not saying that the people who control these things would tell fibs.. would they? of course they would if it suited their end game.
People's vote!!! My 4rse
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Post by Valerioch on Dec 11, 2018 16:43:25 GMT 1
It’s a losers vote!!!
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Post by SeanBroseley on Dec 11, 2018 17:32:59 GMT 1
The lesson of the last two years is this: it does not matter which way you vote or how many times you vote if and when you leave the EU is decided by someone who you can't vote out of their position of power.
We can either live with that fact or we can't.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 17:48:44 GMT 1
This response is symptomatic of a lot that was wrong with the Leave campaign who on one notable occasion said they would refuse to listen to experts. You would far rather take the opinions of a very small coterie of persons rather than the very much larger survey by IPSOS which was also broadly supported by Lord Ashcroft Polls. The problem is that despite what all the polls say, the people I have spoken to which is quite a lot, do not represent what the polls say, which then brings in to question the accuracy. Hmmm. Quite a lot compared to thousands. I would suspect that the opinions you receive rather equate to the circles you move in rather than the electorate as a whole. I could argue, which would be true and largely irrelevant in the overall context, that the younger people I know are hugely in favour of remain.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 17:52:09 GMT 1
The problem is that despite what all the polls say, the people I have spoken to which is quite a lot, do not represent what the polls say, which then brings in to question the accuracy. I have to agree Downie. I find that whenever there is a debate the TV companies always seem to load things in favour of the remainers. Like you have have discussions with friends, family, colleagues and non of those who voted leave have changed their mind and in fact two friends who were staunch remainers now say they'd accept NO DEAL rather than this attempt to appease both the remainers and the EU. Also no one I know has ever been asked for their opinion by any kind of poll or survey, I'm not saying that the people who control these things would tell fibs.. would they? of course they would if it suited their end game.
People's vote!!! My 4rse
I am reasonably sure that I have never mentioned a people's vote. It was purely about the vote in the referendum of the under 45's.
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Post by northwestman on Dec 11, 2018 18:30:54 GMT 1
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Post by mattmw on Dec 11, 2018 18:58:37 GMT 1
The problem is that despite what all the polls say, the people I have spoken to which is quite a lot, do not represent what the polls say, which then brings in to question the accuracy. I have to agree Downie. I find that whenever there is a debate the TV companies always seem to load things in favour of the remainers. Like you have have discussions with friends, family, colleagues and non of those who voted leave have changed their mind and in fact two friends who were staunch remainers now say they'd accept NO DEAL rather than this attempt to appease both the remainers and the EU. Also no one I know has ever been asked for their opinion by any kind of poll or survey, I'm not saying that the people who control these things would tell fibs.. would they? of course they would if it suited their end game.
People's vote!!! My 4rse
I used to work for one of the public opinion poll companies and the process they use is quite scientific. Rather than just randomly phone people they have set groups of people they consult, specifically drawn from a range of social, political and economic categories. They use the same people so trends and changes over time can be monitored more easily. That’s broadly why you don’t hear of many people being consulted in these polls. Results are normally put out to peer review too to avoid any bias in the results, and any organisation found to try and sway results wouldn’t last long due to reputations damage That said even those polls have quite a high margin of error - generally around 2-3% which means on close polls like the EU referendum its best to take the figures with a pinch of salt and to look at the sample fields closely
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Post by neilsalop on Dec 11, 2018 19:19:17 GMT 1
I always come back to the fact that the under 45's voted overwhelmingly to remain. The older generations (myself included) do not necessarily know best and many of us will not be around to witness whatever occurs. Perhaps the younger generation have a greater vision for Europe rather than having their opinions clouded by the past. I suspect an awful lot of over 45's have children and care deeply about what the future brings, they still care for whatever occurs. Why would they not? And likewise, under 45's do not necessarily know best. I worked with many leave voters during the run up to the referendum of all ages and I'm sorry to say that the majority of the younger ones were poorly educated. I'm not saying they were thick, but they weren't the types of people that would form opinions based on research, but rather on what their newspaper of choice told them their opinion should be. I'm sorry, but the Rupert Murdochs and Barclay brothers of this world don't really have my (or your) best interests at heart and therefore their opinion is something that I will rail against to my dying breath.
Unfortunately the mainstream media has fueled the hard right, no-deal, Brexit as an opportunity to make Britain great again. The Problem is that Britain was never great in the sense that they are trying to sell. Is Little Ness a worse place to live than Great Ness for example.
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shrewinspain
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Post by shrewinspain on Dec 11, 2018 19:29:09 GMT 1
It’s a shame that they don’t do the breakdown by IQ - I’d be prepared to bet quite heavily on which way it would come out.
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Post by staffordshrew on Dec 11, 2018 19:40:36 GMT 1
I always come back to the fact that the under 45's voted overwhelmingly to remain. The older generations (myself included) do not necessarily know best and many of us will not be around to witness whatever occurs. Perhaps the younger generation have a greater vision for Europe rather than having their opinions clouded by the past. I suspect an awful lot of over 45's have children and care deeply about what the future brings, they still care for whatever occurs. Why would they not? And likewise, under 45's do not necessarily know best. Think the over 45's may have wished they had voted to leave in the 70's first referendum and were keen to snatch the opportunity this time, I know I was! We have always been such a half hearted member of the EU, which appears to be run by France and Germany and far too keen to admit new countries whose workers have far lower pay structures and poorer healthcare than us so immediately use freedom of movement to come here. Our employers, of course, welcome them with open arms as great value skilled labour and they can also save money on training someone and cut down their apprenticeship schemes. Get the problems sorted out, including the money spent on administering it, and a good deal for Britain and the EU would be a good idea. I can't see that happening, we can't even get a reasonable deal to get out. I understand Tony Blair thinks we should have no deal Brexit as one of the options on a referendum, for Tony B these days that seems to make sense: Got to be as a subdivision though otherwise it would split the Out vote. The options could be: Get out; Stay in, then an extra box: If you want to leave the EU, do you: want to leave even if no deal is possible or leave only with the best possible deal that can be agreed. A vote like that would give the politicians clear information as to what the people want.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2018 20:11:47 GMT 1
Interesting. I facilitated Brexit debates back in '16 with young people in the educational establishment I work in. For and against, then a vote. The clear majority was always for remain, once a 100%. These were young people able to vote. I heard from teacher friends that similar debates in school came out remain, but they couldn't vote obviously. All but one of my friends voted remain, my mum voted out and my in-laws voted out (72 and 78 respectively). As for education. The analysis I linked breaks that down to. Of course the analysis is scientific and academic, but down with that sort of thing. Here's another one, d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oxmidrr5wh/EUFinalCall_Reweighted.pdf
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Post by mattmw on Dec 11, 2018 22:21:32 GMT 1
We have been here before .... but sounds increasingly like the 48 letters needed to trigger a no confidence vote in May has been reached. Should be confirmed tomorrow, So a nice leadership contest for a few weeks should go down well. Not like anything else is going on at the moment
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Post by SeanBroseley on Dec 11, 2018 22:30:13 GMT 1
We have been here before .... but sounds increasingly like the 48 letters needed to trigger a no confidence vote in May has been reached. Should be confirmed tomorrow, So a nice leadership contest for a few weeks should go down well. Not like anything else is going on at the moment That does seem to be implication of this BBC report www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46532745
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Post by shrewder on Dec 11, 2018 23:11:30 GMT 1
A dogs dinner!!!
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Dec 11, 2018 23:28:06 GMT 1
I suspect an awful lot of over 45's have children and care deeply about what the future brings, they still care for whatever occurs. Why would they not? And likewise, under 45's do not necessarily know best. I worked with many leave voters during the run up to the referendum of all ages and I'm sorry to say that the majority of the younger ones were poorly educated. Yeah but education is no guarantee of intelligence. In this day and age that's as clear as owt. Big time. I mean from what you see and hear in the media every dimwit who believes in open borders is 'educated'. And I'm great believer that when it comes to people and their choice of newspaper its very much a case of conformation bias. Other newspapers are always available, there is a reason people don't look to the read them even though there is nothing to stop them doing so... And as for the hard right and mainstream media malarkey, I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Not sure if you have noticed but the hard left running the Labour party don't appear too keen on staying in either. Brexit is not about left and right, never has been, there are people across the whole political spectrum who have different opinions.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Dec 12, 2018 2:06:44 GMT 1
Has someone who is hard left I can only concur with Stuttie's last point.
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Post by camdenshrew on Dec 12, 2018 4:56:24 GMT 1
Somebody's been overdosing on the Brexit Kool-aid: "If Cameron had handed over to David Davies, or JRM or dare say it BoJo, then i feel we would be in a much stronger position." "If we leave with No Deal, the EU are buggered." "We may have a couple of years of further hardship, so what!!" Be interesting to see your opinions as to why you disagree rather than a condescending post which is more trying to belittle what was actually said. But then again, that signify s the whole mantra of the debate does it not!! Try to belittle people rather than post an argument. I'm more than happy to share my opinions.
1) Cameron didn't hand over to anyone. May won the Tory leadership election. And what makes you think Davis and Johnson could do any better? They had their chance as Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary and what did they achieve before walking away? Absolutely nothing.
2) I'm staggered that you think that it is the EU (all 27 remaining nations) that are buggered. (Perhaps my assessment of Britain's place in the world and what it is capable of - particularly with this current generation of politicians at the helm - differs from yours?)
3) Your complacency about the fact that we will have to put up with "a couple of years of further hardship" - any idea how you came up with that number? - also beggars belief. You may be able to take it but many have been struggling badly since the crash of 2008, which incidentally, allied with years of austerity policies, caused a lot of the alienation which led to this vote in the first place. The EU was just the easy target to protest against.
In a nutshell, I cannot see what advantage we get out of leaving. All I see is a major economic impact from pulling out of the largest single market in the world. During these negotiations, we have undergone two years of national humiliation, which has cost us a fortune in wasted money and manpower, for what?
The bottom line for me is that I believe co-operating with like-minded nations on the big issues of the day - climate change, terrorism, corporate tax evasion, the power of big tech - is a better way forward than trying to do it on our own.
People were lied to about how simple it was going to be disengage from 40 years of trading, legal and political agreements. Idiots like Paterson and Hannan told us we could stay in the single market without any problem if we left. And they weren't the only "have our cake and eat it" merchants. Remember all those who told us how the German and French car manufacturers would pressure Merkel and Macron into giving us a good deal? Well, that worked out well, didn't it? Hardly anybody considered the very real threat of Northern Ireland becoming destabilised again. And don't even get me started on all that promised extra money for the NHS.
The EU is not perfect, far from it. But out of all the options on the table remaining in it is the best by a country mile.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 9:47:19 GMT 1
So Mrs May now faces a no confidence vote from her own party. Big 24 hours coming up for her leadership.
Just what the country needs 😕
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 9:50:44 GMT 1
Come out fighting Mrs May.
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Post by ssshrew on Dec 12, 2018 10:00:49 GMT 1
As a country, we are facing one of our biggest periods of uncertainty since WW2 and this is all our so called politicians can come up with. The last thing we need, you plonkers, is more instability. I'm sorry but for me it's a case of a plague on all their houses.
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Post by venceremos on Dec 12, 2018 10:05:27 GMT 1
Come out fighting Mrs May. Not much in it either way but, on balance, I think it'd be better if she loses. There is no new deal to be negotiated. As somebody said a while back, May's approach echoes the last days of Thatcher - she acts as though, simply by working harder and harder at doing exactly the same thing, people will somehow come around to her way of thinking. She has no real political instinct and a tin ear. A fresh approach to this whole sorry mess is needed and the robotic May is not a fresh-thinking kind of person - I almost wrote "leader" but she's never been that.
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Post by stfc1969 on Dec 12, 2018 10:09:02 GMT 1
Come out fighting Mrs May. Not much in it either way but, on balance, I think it'd be better if she loses. There is no new deal to be negotiated. As somebody said a while back, May's approach echoes the last days of Thatcher - she acts as though, simply by working harder and harder at doing exactly the same thing, people will somehow come around to her way of thinking. She has no real political instinct and a tin ear. A fresh approach to this whole sorry mess is needed and the robotic May is not a fresh-thinking kind of person - I almost wrote "leader" but she's never been that. What fresh approach would you suggest?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 10:10:38 GMT 1
I'm more than happy to share my opinions.
1) Cameron didn't hand over to anyone. May won the Tory leadership election. And what makes you think Davis and Johnson could do any better? They had their chance as Brexit Secretary and Foreign Secretary and what did they achieve before walking away? Absolutely nothing.
2) I'm staggered that you think that it is the EU (all 27 remaining nations) that are buggered. (Perhaps my @rseessment of Britain's place in the world and what it is capable of - particularly with this current generation of politicians at the helm - differs from yours?)
3) Your complacency about the fact that we will have to put up with "a couple of years of further hardship" - any idea how you came up with that number? - also beggars belief. You may be able to take it but many have been struggling badly since the crash of 2008, which incidentally, allied with years of austerity policies, caused a lot of the alienation which led to this vote in the first place. The EU was just the easy target to protest against.
In a nutshell, I cannot see what advantage we get out of leaving. All I see is a major economic impact from pulling out of the largest single market in the world. During these negotiations, we have undergone two years of national humiliation, which has cost us a fortune in wasted money and manpower, for what?
The bottom line for me is that I believe co-operating with like-minded nations on the big issues of the day - climate change, terrorism, corporate tax evasion, the power of big tech - is a better way forward than trying to do it on our own.
People were lied to about how simple it was going to be disengage from 40 years of trading, legal and political agreements. Idiots like Paterson and Hannan told us we could stay in the single market without any problem if we left. And they weren't the only "have our cake and eat it" merchants. Remember all those who told us how the German and French car manufacturers would pressure Merkel and Macron into giving us a good deal? Well, that worked out well, didn't it? Hardly anybody considered the very real threat of Northern Ireland becoming destabilised again. And don't even get me started on all that promised extra money for the NHS.
The EU is not perfect, far from it. But out of all the options on the table remaining in it is the best by a country mile.
Well very enlightening, and interesting points of view, but this does not necessarily make it right. I am not even going to get into the pettiness of transition from Cameron to May, and your play on words, but as long as you are happy that it has been a big talking point of debate, i will give you that as a freebie. Now i am not sure if you any interest in the conservative election after the resignation of Cameron, but Boris did put his hat in the ring, and for whatever reason, did not get voted in by his Party (Mainly remainers) so if you look at it from a remain point of view, then he is fighting an uphill battle straight away. But it is telling when they have resigned from positions it because they do not believe that their boss is not listening to them and they have lost confidence in the boss..... so because they achieved nothing, that is why they leave!! its more telling on the PM that she has lost so many members of cabinet rather than the people resigning. Ok as to the thing about the EU 27 being buggered without us. So where to begin, look at how they have handled the negotiations, and the reasoning behind it, THEY DO NOT WANT US TO LEAVE, because we are one of the largest contributors to there budget, it does not get any simpler than that, so they have been as awkward as possible, and the only deal they will give is if it leaves us in a worse position when we leave than we have today, and with the deal on the table that is exactly where we are, take just Monday for instance, who as asked the Euro Courts to sit, and ask if the country could delay article 50 indefinitely unilaterally (On our own without asking the rest of the EU permission) and lo and behold we can... Now on to the EU Budget, 23 countries pay less than 5% into the EU, 11 countries pay less than 1% of funds collected by the EU, most of these countries receive more money from the EU than they contribute, we as a country pay in about 15% of funds collected by the EU, and we get far less out than we contribute, so i would suggest that if one of the few net contributors to the EU budget was to leave, then that would indeed make there heads pop up and think how we are to stop that happening, so yes if you cannot see how that would bugger up the current system then i reckon you need to give your head a wobble. Complacency eh!! well do not make the mistake that people have taken a judgement lightly, we all want to be better off, and it would appear that 17.4 million people made a conscious decision to make their minds up that the hardship was worth it, yes you can label lies etc, but both sides of the spectrum were as bad as one another, but generally the tax payers leaflet (9.3m) ensured we all knew exactly what leaving meant, if it had a title such as European..... Common fisheries policy..... or the European customs market..... we would be leaving that. But i have pride in what the people of this country can achieve without dictatorship from a man from Luxembourg, or a man from France tell us what to do, i have faith in our ability to treat our people with respect and dignity, and to be a great stand alone country.... and we are capable of continuing to be one of the worlds leaders in innovation and technology without interference from Brussels... So yes it would appear we are differing on our opinions. In a nutshell, i see all the benefits of leaving. We are world leaders in Security and share a hell of a lot with the EU, i have no qualms with still sharing security measures with them, what i want to be free from is for instance our fishing waters, and throwing away good food sources that are dead anyway, but they go over the quota.... i want to see an end to CAP, which gives subsidies for fields remaining empty, in other words farmers getting money for growing nothing, and most importantly, France receiving a larger portion than the other 27 countries grouped together. I want our government to have the freedom to save our car industry, which they were prohibited from doing by the EU regulation in 2007 with Rover, I want to stop our money being given to corporations such as JLR being given grants to move a factory from Birmingham to Slovakia. I want to stop our money being used to pay the likes of Kinnocks, Madelson et all (failed UK politicians) huge sums for doing **** all, wasting money to take votes in Strasbourg rather than in Brussels each month, for w****rs and stains such as Juncker getting p**sed to attend summits that he will find hard to remember.... Have you seen the 19000 odd tarrifs that the EU impose on importation of foods, which drives up prices?? 50% on sugar that we could import cheaper from a non EU country, now our current imports from the EU stands at about 45% of all imported items from a member state, it would be higher if there were not such tariffs imposed by the EU. Yes we have gone through 2 years of humiliation, but the main contributor of that has been by having someone in charge who has no desire to leave the EU. There have been no negotiations in this process, the EU have not budged one iota, they set the lines and stuck to it, and our Prime Minister has bowed to there every whim.... Well thats enough to put my opinions to you, i have not touched on immigration which you no doubt think was the driver for all the reasoning behind the referendum, but that does not even come into it.... who is right or who is wrong, i am not that conceited to state you are wrong, i am man enough to understand that we have differing opinions, without trying to belittle you, perhaps if our leaders showed the same respect to people we would be in a different position today, now i have to go and earn some money that will no doubt at some point end up being spunked up the wall somewhere with the a golden handshake somewhere in Brussels, so have a nice day!! :-) Oh sorry just one point, what did actually say on that bus, to me it had 2 headlines, nowhere did it say give all the money from our membership fees, to the NHS. Read more: blueandamber.proboards.com/thread/98361/brexit-agreement?page=8#ixzz5ZSZxLftj
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Post by shrewder on Dec 12, 2018 10:56:48 GMT 1
Interesting night ahead. Think Brexit is just a side show to a power struggle. Her opponents have waited till she did all the hard work on the deal. The aim is I believe if they get a new leader, is for him to go back to the EU and get some minor tweak to the agreement. It will then be dressed up as an amazing new deal. Then if we do have a general election in the end , the Tories will then be in a strong position to win again. So called democracy. Still a few hundred years ago they would have just stabbed her in the back and victimised any opponents.
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Post by staffordshrew on Dec 12, 2018 11:38:20 GMT 1
That's about it. The EU won't budge a centimetre for May now, but they still want us to trade with them in an easy and manageable way, those BMWs have got to get here somehow. They also don't want to loose some of the good things, like sharing security and crime investigation. Any new leader, opposition or Tory, might get just a little bit more so as to fix up some sort of deal which, as you say, allows them to proclaim a great new deal.
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Post by wakemanender on Dec 12, 2018 11:40:48 GMT 1
Anyone know exactly what David Cameron is doing these days. He is being very quiet. Is he in hiding to avoid being arrested for treason.
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Post by percy on Dec 12, 2018 12:01:16 GMT 1
If she wins the no confidence vote then the Tories are stuck with her for 12 months - hilarious.
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Post by venceremos on Dec 12, 2018 12:03:48 GMT 1
Not much in it either way but, on balance, I think it'd be better if she loses. There is no new deal to be negotiated. As somebody said a while back, May's approach echoes the last days of Thatcher - she acts as though, simply by working harder and harder at doing exactly the same thing, people will somehow come around to her way of thinking. She has no real political instinct and a tin ear. A fresh approach to this whole sorry mess is needed and the robotic May is not a fresh-thinking kind of person - I almost wrote "leader" but she's never been that. What fresh approach would you suggest? Well anyone who avoids repeating endlessly that they're "clear" about the subject and doesn't repeat the mantra of a " deal that respects the result of the referendum" has a head start. Everyone agrees we've reached an impasse. May has her deal but she knows the Commons will reject it by a substantial majority. The EU insists that's the deal, negotiated, agreed, final. They're happy to clarify aspects if need be but it's final and the deal is there to be approved or rejected. It shouldn't come as a surprise that the negotiating position of 27 countries is stronger than that of a single country but evidently some still struggle with this concept. Anyway, that being the case, why would the position be any different if MPs vote again in January? If essentially nothing changes, what breaks the impasse? Given that position, there is a simple way of looking at this. Parliament needs a new mandate. Nobody can say that 52% voted in 2016 to leave without a deal, so no responsible government can simply let that happen now. Another vote is needed, giving the people the explicit choice of leaving without a deal, leaving with the deal negotiated with the EU or staying in the EU. To avoid the problem of no option having a majority, voters should be asked to indicate their second preference. The country's future should not be the plaything of a divided, desperate, minority government, nor of the Tory party's extremist wing, nor of the sectarian DUP. Oh, and David Cameron should be marched to the Tower of London forthwith.
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