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Post by mattmw on Jan 31, 2019 22:04:08 GMT 1
Quite agree What a lot of people don’t realise is the even if the Withdrawl agreement (in its current or amended form) gets through the UK and EU Parliament by the end of March that’s only part of the picture. There is then a long transition period where the trade negotiations take place for at least two years, but could well be a lot longer In that case pushing back the Withdrawl date by a few months is neither here nor there if it gets the deal done. Far better to get it right than rush it for the sake of sticking to a date just for the sake of it Given how long it has taken to produce a 500 odd page document and still not be able to get it agreed I think two years for the subsequent transition period negotiations is highly optimistic. The documents produced during that phase are said to be likely to run into thousands of pages for example. Yes arguably the Withdrawl agreement is the easy bit, it’s the subsequent trade deal that takes the time On an optimistic point of view you would hope much of the existing free trade agreement across Europe including the U.K. would form the basis of the agreement, which means we’re not starting from scratch More negatively most trade experts say a unilateral trade deal can take between 5-7 years to agree so could be a long old road yet before things are sorted, that’s why I’ve never quite understood why having a specific date was necessary, it’s getting the process right that is most important
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Post by staffordshrew on Jan 31, 2019 22:20:17 GMT 1
I think the date setting was political convenience, to keep the Tory leavers quiet and to not have to go through whatever we have to go through during the forthcoming election of MEPs: are we still going to have them? But it must be right even if it goes on through our next General Election.
Even the hard line no deal guys would have had to work out how we interact with the rest of Europe eventually. All for leaving (we can't go back on it now either unless we have an election or another referendum), but it's got to be done right. No confidence whatsoever that it will be done right at the moment.
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Post by neilsalop on Jan 31, 2019 22:47:57 GMT 1
If evidence emerged that convinced you Brexit would do serious economic harm to this country, causing long-term suffering for many people and lasting damage, would you insist on honouring the referendum result, or should there be room for people to say 'hang on, this is a really bad idea'? Oh **** off. Bored to death of hearing "experts" opinion. Same experts that said we'd remain and made a mockery of Trump before he romped it? There's a great big world out there, it's about time we engaged with it. I knew EXACTLY what I voted for and it was a completely clean break from the EU. I'd love it if we went out with no deal. Romped it? He lost the popular vote by the best part of 3 million votes. The electoral college system is a farce and is the same system that for a large part of it existence counted black votes as worth 3/5 of a vote.
I see the Republicans are up in arms that the Democrats want to make election day a public holiday. The thought of all those people having control of politics, rather than corporations and lobbyists is truly horrifying to the likes of Mitch McConnell (aka Trumps poodle).
Just out of curiosity, why don't you trust experts? Experts wiped out smallpox. Experts fly your plane when you go on holiday, other experts service it. Experts save lives every day in your local hospital.
Ignoring experts has led to huge increases in cases of measles. Ignoring experts is fuelling climate change.
I'd trust the experts at the the CBI, SMMT, the executives at Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Ford, JLR et al over the jumped up pub landlord any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
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Post by salop27 on Jan 31, 2019 22:58:25 GMT 1
Neilsalop, I trust experts in building stuff and finding cures for disease etc as these things are mathematicaly or scientificly proven. The "experts" involved in brexit are peddling opinions rather then fact and when you chuck in their possible biased opinion, to either side, you can't overly trust any of them.
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Post by neilsalop on Feb 1, 2019 9:09:24 GMT 1
Neilsalop, I trust experts in building stuff and finding cures for disease etc as these things are mathematicaly or scientificly proven. The "experts" involved in brexit are peddling opinions rather then fact and when you chuck in their possible biased opinion, to either side, you can't overly trust any of them. You are correct, nothing is proven until the results are in. I mean how many attempts did the scientists that developed the smallpox vaccine have? How many so-called experts have tried to cure the common cold? You're also correct in that not all experts are all that expert, however when the CBI and IoD are reporting that their members are either setting up subsidiaries in Europe, moving head offices to Europe or at least making contingency plans to do so, you have to wonder how bad it will get before some people rethink their opinion.
The US is already sniffing around and making overtures about us reducing our food and animal health standards so that their farmers can under cut European farmers. The problem is that they have never had rigorous standards and could start dumping their food on us cheaply and quickly. Our farmers have had decades of having to keep standards high and will be on the back foot when American animal products start streaming in. The question is, do we lower our standards and lose our biggest market (even if there are tariffs) or do we lower our standards to compete with the Americans?
I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, but personally I don't think the decision is one that needs to be made. Just extend article 50, lose the red lines, sit down with politicians from all parties, come up with a plan that keeps us in the SM and CU and then go back to the EU in 6 months time. I didn't and still don't want to leave, but if we have to respect the 'will of the people' then lets get the best deal for everyone concerned, businesses, communities, trade, movement, everything. Surely even the most myopic brexiter can see that no-deal has the potential to make everyone in the country worse off (exept the top few % that is, they'll be fine).
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Feb 1, 2019 9:50:55 GMT 1
Perhaps a bit of German pragmatism is what we need. Worth a read if you have time... Hard Brexit ahead: breaking the deadlockThe report is led by Clemens Fuest and Gabriel Felbermayr from the Ifo in Munich but includes the chairmen of the advisory boards of both the German finance and economics ministries.
Clearly the desire to bang both the UK's and EU's heads together isn't confined to the UK...
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Post by tvor on Mar 12, 2019 20:22:34 GMT 1
The Brexit Bill has again been defeated, this time by 149 votes.
Any decent Prime Minister would have resigned after losing the last vote by a record margin of 230 votes. Having made such a horrendous mess of these negotiations she certainly should go this time but I doubt she will, she's far too arrogant for that.
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Post by LetchworthShrew on Mar 12, 2019 20:26:58 GMT 1
242-391
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 12, 2019 20:30:20 GMT 1
If this was a boxing match it would be stopped.
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Post by mattmw on Mar 12, 2019 20:31:45 GMT 1
The Brexit Bill has again been defeated, this time by 149 votes. Any decent Prime Minister would have resigned after losing the last vote by a record margin of 230 votes. Having made such a horrendous mess of these negotiations she certainly should go this time but I doubt she will, she's far too arrogant for that. She is getting the gap down - with each vote. She may get a winning vote at 8th time of asking
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Post by Deleted on Mar 12, 2019 20:33:51 GMT 1
Time for parliament to respect the will of the electorate. This is embarrassing. Who the heck is running this mad house?
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 12, 2019 20:37:38 GMT 1
If there is going to be an extension the EU elections should be fun, I really do hope it means the UK will be taking part. Absolutely hilarious though, here we are again. Parliament at loggerheads, unable to decide. Where its always been. Why the decision was made to ask the people of the UK to make the decision in the first place. What a farce...
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Post by percy on Mar 12, 2019 20:40:14 GMT 1
My prediction: Teresa May's proposal will be rejected. There will be a second referendum - a "peoples' vote" between "Hard Brexit" and "Remain". Remain will win the second referendum. Both labour and the Tories will fall apart with in-fighting about whether they should be pro or anti EU. We will have a general election with no clear winner and nobody will have a hope of forming a government with any real working majority. I’m still hoping for a second referendum but Corbyn is really doing his best to avoid it despite it being Labour Party policy.
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Post by mattmw on Mar 12, 2019 21:08:27 GMT 1
Time for parliament to respect the will of the electorate. This is embarrassing. Who the heck is running this mad house? Arguably Parliament is respecting the referendum result. The Withdrawl agreement voted on tonight kept the U.K. linked to a number of EU institutions in the short and possibly long term. Would appear most of the pro Brexit ERG group voted against the government today as they didn’t think it met their policy of a clean break from the EU
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 12, 2019 21:11:53 GMT 1
Labour is right to look at the option for a soft leave agreement and then a GE and then a second referendum. The suggestion is that the first referendum was overturned by interference and unlawful practices. We're hoping, I gather that the second one won't.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 12, 2019 21:17:38 GMT 1
The motion that will voted on tomorrow:
'This House declines to approve leaving EU without a WA & a framework on the future relationship on 29 March. And notes that leaving without a deal remains default in UK and EU law unless this House and EU ratify an agreement'
Vote in favour of this motion and nothing whatsoever changes. Vote against the motion and nothing whatsoever changes.
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Post by simianbenzoate on Mar 13, 2019 20:56:50 GMT 1
If there is going to be an extension the EU elections should be fun, I really do hope it means the UK will be taking part. Absolutely hilarious though, here we are again. Parliament at loggerheads, unable to decide. Where its always been. Why the decision was made to ask the people of the UK to make the decision in the first place. What a farce... I'm not sure that's true, i think there was a large majority for remain before the referendum place. It's only the result of the referendum and the subsequent rhetoric about "respecting the will of the people" that has caused so many remain MPs to toe the line and insist on brexit in some form, bringing the leave/remain balance closer to 50/50 and hence paralysis
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 13, 2019 21:04:51 GMT 1
Is it time for chaos under Ed Miliband yet?
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 13, 2019 21:26:48 GMT 1
Just to be clear the government put a three line whip to vote against its own motion. However Labour voted for the government's motion and the government lost when the government motion won.
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Post by mattmw on Mar 13, 2019 21:32:47 GMT 1
Just to be clear the government put a three line whip to vote against its own motion. However Labour voted for the government's motion and the government lost when the government motion won. Yes Minister becomes reality
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 13, 2019 21:49:28 GMT 1
If there is going to be an extension the EU elections should be fun, I really do hope it means the UK will be taking part. Absolutely hilarious though, here we are again. Parliament at loggerheads, unable to decide. Where its always been. Why the decision was made to ask the people of the UK to make the decision in the first place. What a farce... I'm not sure that's true, i think there was a large majority for remain before the referendum place. It's only the result of the referendum and the subsequent rhetoric about "respecting the will of the people" that has caused so many remain MPs to toe the line and insist on brexit in some form, bringing the leave/remain balance closer to 50/50 and hence paralysis I think its very clear that there is still very much a large majority for remain. I think the thing though is that so many people have so many ideas as to what the deal should look like that we may never find or see a consensus. They could be there for years... We wait...
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 13, 2019 21:52:26 GMT 1
Is it time for chaos under Ed Miliband yet? Dust off the Ed Stone...
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 13, 2019 21:56:26 GMT 1
this feels like Ireland and the Lisbon treaty, just an utter farce the uk is the laughing stock of Europe and too the rest of the world we look weak.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Mar 13, 2019 22:04:29 GMT 1
this feels like Ireland and the Lisbon treaty, just an utter farce the uk is the laughing stock of Europe and too the rest of the world we look weak. I can only speak from personal experience but I wouldn't say people are laughing at the UK. They are however, wondering what the heck is going on and are completely bemused as to what we actually want. But then to be honest they're not as interested as we are in this, they're not looking to much into the details. Certainly the people I speak to anyhow...
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Post by zenfootball2 on Mar 13, 2019 22:09:26 GMT 1
this feels like Ireland and the Lisbon treaty, just an utter farce the uk is the laughing stock of Europe and too the rest of the world we look weak. I can only speak from personal experience but I wouldn't say people are laughing at the UK. They are however, wondering what the heck is going on and are completely bemused as to what we actually want. But then to be honest they're not as interested as we are in this, they're not looking to much into the details. Certainly the people I speak to anyhow... "They are however, wondering what the heck is going on and are completely bemused as to what we actually want." they are not the only ones.
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Post by salop27 on Mar 13, 2019 22:25:47 GMT 1
As it stands we're leaving on 29th of March. Only thing that will stop this now is the EU extending article 50. Why would the EU bother though with a short extension, nothing will change. If EU offered a years extension, in return for a referendum that wouldn't solve anything either. Only thing that might work would be a years extension with a new PM and new pro brexit negotiating team. But the EU have repeatedly said this is the deal... Maybe best to bite the bullet and leave on 29th. It will be bad for some industries but the uncertainty is bad for all business.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Mar 13, 2019 22:36:36 GMT 1
As it stands we're leaving on 29th of March. Only thing that will stop this now is the EU extending article 50. Why would the EU bother though with a short extension, nothing will change. If EU offered a years extension, in return for a referendum that wouldn't solve anything either. Only thing that might work would be a years extension with a new PM and new pro brexit negotiating team. But the EU have repeatedly said this is the deal... Maybe best to bite the bullet and leave on 29th. It will be bad for some industries but the uncertainty is bad for all business. The option - that no one at Westminster seems to be mentioning is that Article 50 is revoked. A number of Conservative MPs and Nigel Farage are seeking to persuade one of the 27 to veto the application for an extension. It requires unanimity.
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Post by salop27 on Mar 13, 2019 22:51:20 GMT 1
Interesting comment about revoking article 50. Even in the face of no deal I don't think it would get through parliament. If the EU stick to their mantra of this is it on the deal front they won't offer an extension. I wonder what the odds are on May's deal resurfacing on March 28th and being voted through 🤔
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2019 23:23:03 GMT 1
How she can continually bring back her deal when it has been consistently voted down and then say about not having a new referendum and I almost quote " do we carry on time and time again until we get a result we like". I would say laughable but it is pathetic.
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Post by mattmw on Mar 13, 2019 23:24:13 GMT 1
Interesting comment about revoking article 50. Even in the face of no deal I don't think it would get through parliament. If the EU stick to their mantra of this is it on the deal front they won't offer an extension. I wonder what the odds are on May's deal resurfacing on March 28th and being voted through 🤔 About 5/2 according to the bookies - down quite a bit from earlier in the week, so not a bad shout. Daft as it sounds May's withdrawl deal is not popular across the Leave and Remain camps, but with leaving with No Deal pretty much ruled out by Parliament a few brexiteers and DUP might be pushed to vote for it to see the UK out of the EU (sort of) by the end of the month. Once that happens its just 5-10 years of negotiating the trade deal and we can put brexit to bed...ahead of the 2031 referendum to rejoin the EU
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