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Post by salop27 on Aug 9, 2019 17:42:55 GMT 1
Because in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk. In the short term it obviously is and its hard to say how long the short term is in economic terms.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 17:52:02 GMT 1
Because in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk. In the short term it obviously is and its hard to say how long the short term is in economic terms. Is there a point in terms of economic decline, that you’ll accept that brexit was a mistake, loss of jobs, recession, soaring interest rates etc. Not a trick question just curious 👍
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:00:41 GMT 1
Because in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk. In the short term it obviously is and its hard to say how long the short term is in economic terms. Is there a point in terms of economic decline, that you’ll accept that brexit was a mistake, loss of jobs, recession, soaring interest rates etc. Not a trick question just curious 👍 Short term hardship for long term prosperity... happy and contnet with that
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:16:43 GMT 1
Is there a point in terms of economic decline, that you’ll accept that brexit was a mistake, loss of jobs, recession, soaring interest rates etc. Not a trick question just curious 👍 Short term hardship for long term prosperity... happy and contnet with that I assume you mean content Mr D! You don’t define anything there mate. How long is short term? What is hardship and hardship for who? 😘
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Post by staffordshrew on Aug 9, 2019 18:21:47 GMT 1
Because in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk. In the short term it obviously is and its hard to say how long the short term is in economic terms. So who says in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk? Mystic Meg?
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Post by darkshrew on Aug 9, 2019 18:31:56 GMT 1
Is there a point in terms of economic decline, that you’ll accept that brexit was a mistake, loss of jobs, recession, soaring interest rates etc. Not a trick question just curious 👍 Short term hardship for long term prosperity... happy and contnet with that There is nothing at all to back up the "long term prosperity" part of your overly simplistic one-liner. Short term would seem to be at least 20 years according to most economists; and those are years that we may never catch up as the future normalised growth rate that it is hoped we will revert to will of course be a % of a smaller base. There is no suggestion or any rationale for suggesting that our growth would do anything better than normalise after that shock period and many feel that it would be at a lower rate as we would not be able to negotiate deals comparable to those obtained via the EU. You seem to be the expert in facile comments.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:37:52 GMT 1
Short term hardship for long term prosperity... happy and contnet with that There is nothing at all to back up the "long term prosperity" part of your overly simplistic one-liner. Short term would seem to be at least 20 years according to most economists; and those are years that we may never catch up as the future normalised growth rate that it is hoped we will revert to will of course be a % of a smaller base. There is no suggestion or any rationale for suggesting that our growth would do anything better than normalise after that shock period and many feel that it would be at a lower rate as we would not be able to negotiate deals comparable to those obtained via the EU. You seem to be the expert in facile comments. 🤣🤣🤣 Yeah those same forcasters that stated gloom after vote... Even bank of england say there is only a 33% chance of a recession after we leave... giving a 67% chance of not... Reason we have such uncertainty is the vocal minority.... starting with poloticians who are trying to thwart the will of the people
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Post by darkshrew on Aug 9, 2019 18:51:10 GMT 1
There is nothing at all to back up the "long term prosperity" part of your overly simplistic one-liner. Short term would seem to be at least 20 years according to most economists; and those are years that we may never catch up as the future normalised growth rate that it is hoped we will revert to will of course be a % of a smaller base. There is no suggestion or any rationale for suggesting that our growth would do anything better than normalise after that shock period and many feel that it would be at a lower rate as we would not be able to negotiate deals comparable to those obtained via the EU. You seem to be the expert in facile comments. 🤣🤣🤣 Yeah those same forcasters that stated gloom after vote... Even bank of england say there is only a 33% chance of a recession after we leave... giving a 67% chance of not... Reason we have such uncertainty is the vocal minority.... starting with poloticians who are trying to thwart the will of the people Is there 1 credible economist who says that we will be better off outside the EU - short or long term ?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:53:01 GMT 1
🤣🤣🤣 Yeah those same forcasters that stated gloom after vote... Even bank of england say there is only a 33% chance of a recession after we leave... giving a 67% chance of not... Reason we have such uncertainty is the vocal minority.... starting with poloticians who are trying to thwart the will of the people Is there 1 credible economist who says that we will be better off outside the EU - short or long term ? i dont think there is 1 credible economist. I also have not had an answer about certainty of things being better in the eu than out of it. apart from a growing of the EU. We attempted in 2014 to effect change from within by Mr Cameron.. and were told it does not need reform... hence why the vote was taken to leave.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:54:43 GMT 1
Because in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk. In the short term it obviously is and its hard to say how long the short term is in economic terms. So who says in the long term leaving the EU is not a risk? Mystic Meg? Mystic Mogg
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Post by darkshrew on Aug 9, 2019 18:55:13 GMT 1
Is there 1 credible economist who says that we will be better off outside the EU - short or long term ? i dont think there is 1 credible economist. OK - I understand - you know better than those educated and paid to research in the subject. Confirms what I thought.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:55:57 GMT 1
i dont think there is 1 credible economist. OK - I understand - you know better than those educated and paid to research in the subject. Confirms what I thought. 🤣🤣🤣🤣 I would not say that... but when the BOE chairman gets it so spectacularly wro g as Mr Carney did on 12th May 2016... it does not bode well does it!!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2019 18:57:47 GMT 1
There is nothing at all to back up the "long term prosperity" part of your overly simplistic one-liner. Short term would seem to be at least 20 years according to most economists; and those are years that we may never catch up as the future normalised growth rate that it is hoped we will revert to will of course be a % of a smaller base. There is no suggestion or any rationale for suggesting that our growth would do anything better than normalise after that shock period and many feel that it would be at a lower rate as we would not be able to negotiate deals comparable to those obtained via the EU. You seem to be the expert in facile comments. 🤣🤣🤣 Yeah those same forcasters that stated gloom after vote... Even bank of england say there is only a 33% chance of a recession after we leave... giving a 67% chance of not... Reason we have such uncertainty is the vocal minority.... starting with poloticians who are trying to thwart the will of the people I think your much vaunted Arch Brexiteer and now Leader of the House himself said it would be a generation at least before we reap any benefit from leaving the EU. OK for him in his ivory tower encased in strategically moved financial interests in the Irish Republic. He also stood up in the House of Commons and said there should be a re-affirmation vote. Lest we forget the double standards of the Brexit movers and shakers.
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Drew
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Post by Drew on Aug 9, 2019 18:57:48 GMT 1
But the EU is the land of milk and honey. There can't be a recession whilst we remain a member. We are still a member, but one rapidly heading for the exit trap door. If we were committed to staying in the EU the pound would be higher, the stock market would be higher, investment in industry would be higher. Is that enough for you? We could have been a very strong player in the EU as France continues to have it's troubles and Germany suffers from Trump trade problems with selling it's manufacturing output. Instead we have a government committed to going it alone, against the wishes of parliament and against the wishes of around half the electorate. Makes no sense whatsoever. Mystic meg?
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Post by staffordshrew on Aug 9, 2019 19:30:35 GMT 1
We are still a member, but one rapidly heading for the exit trap door. If we were committed to staying in the EU the pound would be higher, the stock market would be higher, investment in industry would be higher. Is that enough for you? We could have been a very strong player in the EU as France continues to have it's troubles and Germany suffers from Trump trade problems with selling it's manufacturing output. Instead we have a government committed to going it alone, against the wishes of parliament and against the wishes of around half the electorate. Makes no sense whatsoever. Mystic meg? You don't think that the pound is lower, the stock market lower and investment in industry is lower because of Brexit uncertainty? You do not accept that we were a big player, with Germany, in the EU and that France is falling away a little? You don't accept that the "everything will be good in a while" opinion on leaving is a shot in the dark?
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Post by neilsalop on Aug 10, 2019 17:35:38 GMT 1
I know this started off as a Brexit thread and has stayed true to that for the most part, but party loyalties are also quite evident. I'm interested how people think the NHS is going to cope with; A. The potential lack of resources, staff and medicines in the event of no-deal and; B. The potential for US healthcare (sic), pharmacutical and insurance companies taking an interest in it.
As I said party lines are being drawn on this thread and I though this snippet of information might be of use to any floating voters out there that have been following this thread.
The total waiting list in England has hit a new peak of 4.4 million. The number of patients waiting more than the 18-week target for routine operations and procedures has gone above 600,000 for the first time in a decade.
If any Tories would like to explain which party has been in power for the last 9+ years and have instigated the policies that have led to this state of affairs, I would love to hear there explanation.
I look forward to someone claiming it to be all Labours fault.
Failing that it will be down to all the immigration no doubt and the effects on the infrastructure, which seeing as immigrants generally pay in more than they take out is going to be a tough sell.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2019 18:15:34 GMT 1
I know this started off as a Brexit thread and has stayed true to that for the most part, but party loyalties are also quite evident. I'm interested how people think the NHS is going to cope with; A. The potential lack of resources, staff and medicines in the event of no-deal and; B. The potential for US healthcare (sic), pharmacutical and insurance companies taking an interest in it.
As I said party lines are being drawn on this thread and I though this snippet of information might be of use to any floating voters out there that have been following this thread.
The total waiting list in England has hit a new peak of 4.4 million. The number of patients waiting more than the 18-week target for routine operations and procedures has gone above 600,000 for the first time in a decade.
If any Tories would like to explain which party has been in power for the last 9+ years and have instigated the policies that have led to this state of affairs, I would love to hear there explanation.
I look forward to someone claiming it to be all Labours fault.
Failing that it will be down to all the immigration no doubt and the effects on the infrastructure, which seeing as immigrants generally pay in more than they take out is going to be a tough sell.
The POTENTIAL lack of resources?
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Post by percy on Aug 11, 2019 9:48:32 GMT 1
i dont think there is 1 credible economist. OK - I understand - you know better than those educated and paid to research in the subject. Confirms what I thought. Economists build different models with different correlations and different variables. Each model is different and each comes up with a best guess on what will happen in different scenarios. Quite a few in 2016 predicted that there would be little action until the type of Brexit became clear; indeed some were mildly positive. When ALL the models from ALL the credible economists come up with the same answer then I'd say that it is pretty much a certainty - that is what the models for a "No deal" outcome for Brexit are. I'd go as far to say that if anyone thinks that no deal is going to be positive for the UK as a whole in the next 20 years then they are not taking in all the available information sources in a rational manner to determine their actions - i.e. they are stupid. That is very different from looking at the position of individual people or companies. Rhys-Mogg for example will do very well as his assets are predominantly USD denominated; Weatherspoons will do well both because of the impact of recession on spending trends and the ability for them to buy raw ingredients without EU tariffs. I too will do very well as my assets are now USD/EUR denominated and I am paid in €. Just like James Dyson - regardless of how wealthy you are I'd think about getting out of the UK for the year or so after a no deal Brexit because the infrastructure problems could have serious consequences on the availability of medical treatments.
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Post by staffordshrew on Aug 11, 2019 10:08:01 GMT 1
The simplistic view is that financial institutions would not be hiring economists if they didn't get it somewhere near right, they earn big salaries.
Seems to me that they have similar skills to those the bookies employ to fix the odds. The bookies generally win, but, just as with economists, any errors are highlighted.
The bookies, and financial institutions, would not last very long if they relied on the shot in the dark guess and hope strategies some on here are putting their money on.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 11:27:18 GMT 1
OK - I understand - you know better than those educated and paid to research in the subject. Confirms what I thought. Economists build different models with different correlations and different variables. Each model is different and each comes up with a best guess on what will happen in different scenarios. Quite a few in 2016 predicted that there would be little action until the type of Brexit became clear; indeed some were mildly positive. When ALL the models from ALL the credible economists come up with the same answer then I'd say that it is pretty much a certainty - that is what the models for a "No deal" outcome for Brexit are. I'd go as far to say that if anyone thinks that no deal is going to be positive for the UK as a whole in the next 20 years then they are not taking in all the available information sources in a rational manner to determine their actions - i.e. they are stupid. That is very different from looking at the position of individual people or companies. Rhys-Mogg for example will do very well as his assets are predominantly USD denominated; Weatherspoons will do well both because of the impact of recession on spending trends and the ability for them to buy raw ingredients without EU tariffs. I too will do very well as my @rseets are now USD/EUR denominated and I am paid in €. Just like James Dyson - regardless of how wealthy you are I'd think about getting out of the UK for the year or so after a no deal Brexit because the infrastructure problems could have serious consequences on the availability of medical treatments. Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 13:37:23 GMT 1
Economists build different models with different correlations and different variables. Each model is different and each comes up with a best guess on what will happen in different scenarios. Quite a few in 2016 predicted that there would be little action until the type of Brexit became clear; indeed some were mildly positive. When ALL the models from ALL the credible economists come up with the same answer then I'd say that it is pretty much a certainty - that is what the models for a "No deal" outcome for Brexit are. I'd go as far to say that if anyone thinks that no deal is going to be positive for the UK as a whole in the next 20 years then they are not taking in all the available information sources in a rational manner to determine their actions - i.e. they are stupid. That is very different from looking at the position of individual people or companies. Rhys-Mogg for example will do very well as his assets are predominantly USD denominated; Weatherspoons will do well both because of the impact of recession on spending trends and the ability for them to buy raw ingredients without EU tariffs. I too will do very well as my @rseets are now USD/EUR denominated and I am paid in €. Just like James Dyson - regardless of how wealthy you are I'd think about getting out of the UK for the year or so after a no deal Brexit because the infrastructure problems could have serious consequences on the availability of medical treatments. Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now. You’re going to live in Latvia?
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Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Aug 11, 2019 13:55:04 GMT 1
Ireland is closer and no language problem.
Scotland will be an option soon.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 14:07:10 GMT 1
Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now. You’re going to live in Latvia? Ha, no, I ain't going nowhere. It's my country too.
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Post by East Sussex Shrew on Aug 11, 2019 14:10:27 GMT 1
Boys and girls get your Pre Brexitt supplies in before October before prices go up. With a recession and mass unemployment on the cards,we face a crisis in this country. How people think we are better off with out trading with Europe is shocking. To all the people who voted for Brexitt I hope you think long and hard about what you have done when you are at the job centre trying to find a job and all you can find is cleaning out the skid marks in a office toilet.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 14:12:26 GMT 1
Economists build different models with different correlations and different variables. Each model is different and each comes up with a best guess on what will happen in different scenarios. Quite a few in 2016 predicted that there would be little action until the type of Brexit became clear; indeed some were mildly positive. When ALL the models from ALL the credible economists come up with the same answer then I'd say that it is pretty much a certainty - that is what the models for a "No deal" outcome for Brexit are. I'd go as far to say that if anyone thinks that no deal is going to be positive for the UK as a whole in the next 20 years then they are not taking in all the available information sources in a rational manner to determine their actions - i.e. they are stupid. That is very different from looking at the position of individual people or companies. Rhys-Mogg for example will do very well as his assets are predominantly USD denominated; Weatherspoons will do well both because of the impact of recession on spending trends and the ability for them to buy raw ingredients without EU tariffs. I too will do very well as my @rseets are now USD/EUR denominated and I am paid in €. Just like James Dyson - regardless of how wealthy you are I'd think about getting out of the UK for the year or so after a no deal Brexit because the infrastructure problems could have serious consequences on the availability of medical treatments. Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now. Interested to know what this involved. Registering for EU health insurance, converting cash into dollars or just buying extra loo roll?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 14:30:48 GMT 1
Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now. Interested to know what this involved. Registering for EU health insurance, converting cash into dollars or just buying extra loo roll? No much simpler.... get your self in to a frenzy... try to voice as much hysteria as possible whilst having no faith in the UK to actually achieve... iforming everyone how bad its going to be.... simple...
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 15:35:56 GMT 1
Interested to know what this involved. Registering for EU health insurance, converting cash into dollars or just buying extra loo roll? No much simpler.... get your self in to a frenzy... try to voice as much hysteria as possible whilst having no faith in the UK to actually achieve... iforming everyone how bad its going to be.... simple... ffs the uk can’t manoeuvre is scabby ass in two inches of snow or keep the trains and hospitals open in a thunderstorm Mr Downward. Tell me where your faith comes from!
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Post by neilsalop on Aug 11, 2019 15:51:26 GMT 1
No much simpler.... get your self in to a frenzy... try to voice as much hysteria as possible whilst having no faith in the UK to actually achieve... iforming everyone how bad its going to be.... simple... ffs the uk can’t manoeuvre is scabby ass in two inches of snow or keep the trains and hospitals open in a thunderstorm Mr Downward. Tell me where your faith comes from! Careful Nursie, you're starting to sound like the voice of (t)reason .
Salop27 and his gang will be reporting you to Boris, Nigel and Jacob if you're not careful, and you only have to look at what happened to Dr. David Kelly and Mr Epstein when you threaten the lifestyle or the wishes of the elite. Good job you don't have any dirt to dish.
I wouldn't be worried about the two inches of snow either, global warming will put paid to that. Thunderstorms could be an issue though.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 16:13:35 GMT 1
Interested to know what this involved. Registering for EU health insurance, converting cash into dollars or just buying extra loo roll? No much simpler.... get your self in to a frenzy... try to voice as much hysteria as possible whilst having no faith in the UK to actually achieve... iforming everyone how bad its going to be.... simple... Which, just goes to show, what you actually know about how Brexit affects different people. Nothing.
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Post by andygroundo on Aug 11, 2019 16:25:35 GMT 1
Now, now, Percy, enough of this nonsense. You sound like you know what you're talking about. Interestingly, I've just made myself and my family "Brexit proof." Been going on for a couple of months now. Interested to know what this involved. Registering for EU health insurance, converting cash into dollars or just buying extra loo roll? Cash into Bitcoins 🖒
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