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Post by percy on Nov 27, 2018 12:53:10 GMT 1
I've just had the detailed breakdown of the agreement presented to me at work - suffice to say that my view is that it is a VERY VERY bad deal for the UK.
May started off by saying that "no deal is better than a bad one" - she is now presenting a very bad deal and trying to tell us that it is better than no deal.
I know that nobody wants to go to a second referendum but surely we cannot let this deal be done - this deal is just bafflingly bad for UK. I hope that this is rejected in the commons and we get a referendum that is a straight - 'Hard Brexit' or 'Remain' choice to settle the matter and forget negotiating with the EU 27 because we will never get a fair deal.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 13:00:54 GMT 1
There should be a second referendum purely because we have a clearer idea of what will happen in March. No one could come to an informed decision on the lies, half truths and exaggerations provided by both sides in 2016. The trouble is the leavers are scared to death that they have been rumbled but on the other hand some of those who voted remain might have changed their minds (hmmm).
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Post by camdenshrew on Nov 27, 2018 13:15:56 GMT 1
It's amazing how often you see people in TV vox pops spouting: "Let's just get it done" when they have no idea what "it" is. Now the facts are clearer about exactly what Brexit entails, and with parliamentary deadlock likely, a second referundum is the only way out of this impasse.
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Post by staffordshrew on Nov 27, 2018 13:21:57 GMT 1
It's amazing how often you see people in TV vox pops spouting: "Let's just get it done" when they have no idea what "it" is. Now the facts are clearer about exactly what Brexit entails, and with parliamentary deadlock likely, a second referundum is the only way out of this impasse. Let's just have an election.
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Post by Valerioch on Nov 27, 2018 13:28:34 GMT 1
There should be a second referendum purely because we have a clearer idea of what will happen in March. No one could come to an informed decision on the lies, half truths and exaggerations provided by both sides in 2016. The trouble is the leavers are scared to death that they have been rumbled but on the other hand some of those who voted remain might have changed their minds (hmmm). C4 did the largest poll since the first Referendum. It came out 54% for Remain, 46% for Brexit. Pretty sure polls said similar this before the 1st vote too, and we all know what actually happened... Mind you it sounds like Theresa is delivering neither... Dianne Abbott thinks Leave would win a 2nd referendum - so it would probably be a Remain landslide!
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Post by martinshrew on Nov 27, 2018 13:46:43 GMT 1
It's amazing how often you see people in TV vox pops spouting: "Let's just get it done" when they have no idea what "it" is. Now the facts are clearer about exactly what Brexit entails, and with parliamentary deadlock likely, a second referundum is the only way out of this impasse. Let's just have an election. JC is a far bigger threat to this country than any deal.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Nov 27, 2018 13:59:32 GMT 1
Let's just have an election. JC is a far bigger threat to this country than any deal. And I think May is banking on that to get this through...
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Post by mattmw on Nov 27, 2018 14:16:54 GMT 1
Been trying to do risk assessments on Mays deal but frankly got too depressed and gave up!
One good thing about the whole brexit process though is that the Supreme Court judgement on the Millar case showed that Parliament is sovereign in its decision making and always has been - so is able to decide on brexit for itself.
I can see why there is support for a referendum on the terms of the deal May has negotiated, but actually think MPs would be passing the buck on doing that and should be making the decision one way or the other themselves. We’re a representative democracy they should get on with representing us and not banging on about past or future referendums
One thing is for sure this is all going to go on for many years to come. Anyone saying “just get on with it” hasn’t been paying attention
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 14:21:25 GMT 1
Let's just have an election. JC is a far bigger threat to this country than any deal. Because?
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Post by davycrockett on Nov 27, 2018 14:52:33 GMT 1
I've just had the detailed breakdown of the agreement presented to me at work - suffice to say that my view is that it is a VERY VERY bad deal for the UK. May started off by saying that "no deal is better than a bad one" - she is now presenting a very bad deal and trying to tell us that it is better than no deal. I know that nobody wants to go to a second referendum but surely we cannot let this deal be done - this deal is just bafflingly bad for UK. I hope that this is rejected in the commons and we get a referendum that is a straight - 'Hard Brexit' or 'Remain' choice to settle the matter and forget negotiating with the EU 27 because we will never get a fair deal. For ‘nobody wants to go to a second referendum’ read 48% of the voters probably do. Actually vote on facts rather than fiction 👍 No deal isn’t an option as with no deal there’d have to be a hard border between Eire and N Ireland or a deal for there not to be one and some other control. With no deal there’d be no transition period and and we’d be in chaos on 29th of March... Other EU countries would immediately start deporting Brits with no visa’s and visa versa...
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Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Nov 27, 2018 15:05:19 GMT 1
I recently read that, as Chancellor, Gordon Brown commissioned 23 studies on whether or not we should join the Euro.
I wonder how many studies Cameron commissioned on the pros and cons of EU membership?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 15:06:32 GMT 1
A general election?
It'll probably end up in a hung parliament which will leave us no further forward.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 15:15:03 GMT 1
The sooner it's done and the NHS gets it's extra £350 million per week the better.
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Post by venceremos on Nov 27, 2018 15:25:58 GMT 1
Hopefully, May's deal gets voted down in the Commons. I don't pretend to have read the document but I've heard and read plenty of people who have.
It doesn't satisfy brexiteers and it doesn't satisfy remainers. It might be an attempt to find a path between the two but it doesn't because it can't.
A general election won't solve it because Labour won't be able to achieve its "brexit for jobs" either. The EU has done what it should; stood up for its remaining members and not conceded a cushy deal for the departing UK.
There are still twists and turns to come, apart from the Commons' vote - the ECJ decision on whether the UK can unilaterally rescind Article 50 and the continuing unravelling of the Arron Banks/Leave.EU illegal campaign funding and the spider's web that is Cambridge Analytica/Russia and the Mueller enquiry. How politicians, Labour especially, have the nerve to talk about respecting the result of that oh-so-dodgy referendum is beyond comprehension.
If and when the deal is ditched, I agree that the only sensible way out of the impasse will be to defer the 29 March exit date and for the electorate to vote again. It won't be easy or pretty but we all know a lot more now than we did 2.5 years ago.
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Post by shrewder on Nov 27, 2018 15:31:25 GMT 1
Beginning to look like totally unsolvable issue. It's one of those situations where the suggestion to resolving it would be "Well I wouldn't start from here".
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Post by salop27 on Nov 27, 2018 16:44:59 GMT 1
As a committed leaver the deal ticks a lot of boxes but falls down as the time to negotiate a trade deal seems unlimited or we fall into the backstop, which could severely complicate NI trade with mainland UK. A few tweaks and it might get through a second time though. The alternative is bleak as I believe parliament would try to vote down a no deal situation which would lead to uproar. Finally, one thing we can't do is have another referendum. Not till the vote from 2016 has been implemented and a good amount of time has passed to judge the outcome.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Nov 27, 2018 17:13:38 GMT 1
Wouldn't another referendum simply muddy the waters still? Considering we have those who would stay come what may, those that would leave only with this current deal, those that would only leave if it was a clean break etc. I think a new referendum would simply confuse matters more. Easy for me to say of course but when you look at it you are tempted to see a clean Brexit and if it does go tits up then it'll be cap in hand and back to the EU looking for another invitation. No idea whats to happen but from reading the press it suggests May has no chance of getting this through but then it might well be that those who are against it are those making the loudest noise and the numbers will be there to back it. Who knows...
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Post by champagneprince on Nov 27, 2018 17:28:54 GMT 1
I've just had the detailed breakdown of the agreement presented to me at work - suffice to say that my view is that it is a VERY VERY bad deal for the UK. May started off by saying that "no deal is better than a bad one" - she is now presenting a very bad deal and trying to tell us that it is better than no deal. I know that nobody wants to go to a second referendum but surely we cannot let this deal be done - this deal is just bafflingly bad for UK. I hope that this is rejected in the commons and we get a referendum that is a straight - 'Hard Brexit' or 'Remain' choice to settle the matter and forget negotiating with the EU 27 because we will never get a fair deal. It may well be a very bad deal, but economists and politicians on the Remain side warned about much worse back in 2016 and the public still voted to Leave. We were pummeled with the worst case scenarios back then. I would be staggered if TM gets this through on a first vote though: - Labour wouldn't support it even if it was the greatest deal ever (and vice versa) - Any Remainer is hanging on for a 2nd referendum - Some Brexiteer's don't think it's Brexit TM has tried to appease everyone and in the process she's appeased hardly anybody. She's banking on two things: - That the EU are happy with it - box ticked - That Parliament will be forced into a decision of No Deal or Her Deal She knows that a 2nd referendum will cause more division and uncertainty. She's correct. And even if Leave won a 2nd time then she's still got to try and get her deal through parliament again. So, she's banking on the public forcing the hand of the politicians and changing their minds. Ultimately, left with a choice of No Deal or Her Deal, will they buckle and side with her? I wouldn't be surprised if this goes to a second vote. When her deal fails in the first vote and the reality that, gulp!, this is going to be 'No Deal', the clock is ticking, the population is getting restless, will they buckle on a 2nd vote? I can't see her resigning, I can't see her losing a Leadership battle, I can't see the country voting for Corbyn if it goes to a General. Imagine a Corbyn win. We go back to square one! Imagine Boris, or whoever, winning a Leadership battle. We go back to square one! And this is all assuming that the EU gives us extra time to do all these things and that they'll agree to a revised deal (that's less in their favour). If the vote goes back to the public, then I think it will be a choice of: A No Deal Brexit Or A Theresa May Deal Brexit But they still won't get it through Parliament, unless it's agreed beforehand that the Parliament will side with the public vote. If the vote concerns the two choices above, then her deal wins a public vote doesn't it? So I think TM will win, but not on the 1st vote. It'll either be a 2nd Parliament vote or a public vote on the two choices above.
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Post by venceremos on Nov 27, 2018 17:44:02 GMT 1
There would be no point in having a current deal/no deal choice on a 2nd public vote if the current deal had already been rejected by the Commons. That simply won't happen.
As for being back at square one, frankly that's a much better place than we're in now.
I agree that it seems unlikely the EU will concede more to a revised deal, in which case why would the same deal be taken back to the Commons if it had already been rejected? Nothing would have changed.
There seems to be an accepted logic with some that a 2nd public vote would cause more division and uncertainty. It would be much less uncertain to have a straight choice between staying and leaving with no deal than the current mess! As for division, the potential anger of thwarted brexiteers is talked about often enough, the actual anger of remainers is largely ignored. If we do leave on 29 March, remainers aren't going to wake up on 30 March feeling all warm and positive.
The country is divided and there is no way out of this that will put that right for a long time to come. So it's up to our politicians to do what's best for the country and accept that there will be upset and division whatever happens.
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Post by champagneprince on Nov 27, 2018 18:22:41 GMT 1
There would be no point in having a current deal/no deal choice on a 2nd public vote if the current deal had already been rejected by the Commons. That simply won't happen. As for being back at square one, frankly that's a much better place than we're in now. I agree that it seems unlikely the EU will concede more to a revised deal, in which case why would the same deal be taken back to the Commons if it had already been rejected? Nothing would have changed. There seems to be an accepted logic with some that a 2nd public vote would cause more division and uncertainty. It would be much less uncertain to have a straight choice between staying and leaving with no deal than the current mess! As for division, the potential anger of thwarted brexiteers is talked about often enough, the actual anger of remainers is largely ignored. If we do leave on 29 March, remainers aren't going to wake up on 30 March feeling all warm and positive. The country is divided and there is no way out of this that will put that right for a long time to come. So it's up to our politicians to do what's best for the country and accept that there will be upset and division whatever happens. In my opinion, the anger of Remain voters won't be anything compared to what we'd see if Leave were to have the 1st referendum overturned. The 'fuel' for the anger just wouldn't be on the same level and likely we'd have seen that anger much more strongly over the last two years if that was going to be the case. Square one wouldn't be better than what we have now because it's likely that the EU won't budge even if Corbyn/Boris come up with a better deal for Britain. It would take too long to have a leadership battle or GE, and then come up with a new deal.... and then try to negotiate it with Europe and then, after all that, try to get it through Parliament again, with a high likelihood it'll still fail. In the interim the UK and Europe would have to put up with more uncertainty and division. The EU just want to get on with being the EU, they don't want the troublesome UK dithering in the background. On March 29th we'll likely be kicked out, even if we're still dithering. The only way I can see it being a positive is it will give Corbyn/Boris an excuse of 'Well we tried', but they'll still be scuttling back home with no revised deal. Europe have what they want now, the deal has been agreed. They don't need to budge an inch on any new deal, unless Boris/Corbyn can convince them that 'No Deal' would be much worse for them than it is for us. There is a chance that they could, but a remote one, I would be absolutely positive that the EU would have thought long and hard about what No Deal would mean for them and they too will want to stubbornly stick to No Deal or TM's Deal in the hope that our politicians (or public) side with TM. Making it clear that nothing else is on the table is doing that.
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Post by mattmw on Nov 27, 2018 18:38:34 GMT 1
There would be no point in having a current deal/no deal choice on a 2nd public vote if the current deal had already been rejected by the Commons. That simply won't happen. As for being back at square one, frankly that's a much better place than we're in now. I agree that it seems unlikely the EU will concede more to a revised deal, in which case why would the same deal be taken back to the Commons if it had already been rejected? Nothing would have changed. There seems to be an accepted logic with some that a 2nd public vote would cause more division and uncertainty. It would be much less uncertain to have a straight choice between staying and leaving with no deal than the current mess! As for division, the potential anger of thwarted brexiteers is talked about often enough, the actual anger of remainers is largely ignored. If we do leave on 29 March, remainers aren't going to wake up on 30 March feeling all warm and positive. The country is divided and there is no way out of this that will put that right for a long time to come. So it's up to our politicians to do what's best for the country and accept that there will be upset and division whatever happens. I think if the country is to have another vote it would have to have primary legislation behind it stating clearly what the outcomes of a yes/no vote was - such as our relationship with the EU whether we’d be in customs unions and the single market and a defined policy on free movement. In that way much more accurate predictions of what yes/no made could be made. That type of legislative process was included in the Scottish referendum a few years earlier and made for a much better debate The problem with the 2016 was it carried no legal responsibility to implement any of it. Which left the government to decide on how to interpret the results. You can make the argument Mays deal meets the question posed in the EU referendum - we are leaving the EU - but just as easy is to argue we’re not as EU rules will still have an influence in the U.K. If we’re to have another referendum - it must be backed up by legislation in advance of the vote, otherwise it will just muddle the issue further. I’d rather MPs get a free vote on Mays deal or going for no deal. If they can’t decide a new election goes ahead then it’s totally up-to that new government to decide a policy. No government can be held by actions of past governments so it’s much easier to have a new policy in those circumstances
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Post by percy on Nov 27, 2018 18:46:13 GMT 1
Given a choice between "TM's deal" and "no deal" it looks as if no deal is better for the UK as a whole.
I think that any future referendum should realistically only be Hard Brexit v Remain.
If anyone is thinking of voting for TM's deal I'd seriously doubt that they understood it. TMs deal is such a one-sided deal the EU are sending a message to the likes of Austria, Hungary, Netherlands that there is no way out. If anyone thinks that the EU is going to offer a better deal I think that they are mistaken.
We can call their bluff or beg to stay in.
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Post by champagneprince on Nov 27, 2018 18:49:31 GMT 1
Given a choice between "TM's deal" and "no deal" it looks as if no deal is better for the UK as a whole. I think that any future referendum should realistically only be Hard Brexit v Remain. If anyone is thinking of voting for TM's deal I'd seriously doubt that they understood it. TMs deal is such a one-sided deal the EU are sending a message to the likes of Austria, Hungary, Netherlands that there is no way out. If anyone thinks that the EU is going to offer a better deal I think that they are mistaken. We can call their bluff or beg to stay in. If we beg to stay in (we won't) then that also sends a message to Austria, Hungary, Netherlands that there is no way out doesn't it?
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Post by salop27 on Nov 27, 2018 18:54:01 GMT 1
There cannot be another referendum. Full stop.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 18:54:39 GMT 1
Oh dear , who thought it would come to this? My solution would be to get “ Call me Dave “ back in the thick of it . He would know what to do , after all he has expressed a desire to return to politics .
So, to save the day I propose Dave Cameron riding to the rescue on his white charger along with his simple but loyal valet Gideon.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 18:58:25 GMT 1
Personally, I'm ****ing myself.
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Post by percy on Nov 27, 2018 18:59:14 GMT 1
Given a choice between "TM's deal" and "no deal" it looks as if no deal is better for the UK as a whole. I think that any future referendum should realistically only be Hard Brexit v Remain. If anyone is thinking of voting for TM's deal I'd seriously doubt that they understood it. TMs deal is such a one-sided deal the EU are sending a message to the likes of Austria, Hungary, Netherlands that there is no way out. If anyone thinks that the EU is going to offer a better deal I think that they are mistaken. We can call their bluff or beg to stay in. If we beg to stay in (we won't) then that also sends a message to Austria, Hungary, Netherlands that there is no way out doesn't it? Exactly my point - i) we beg to stay in because there is no way out; ii) we accept a truly awful deal to get out; or iii) we call their bluff and have a hard Brexit. Options i) and ii) tell the others not to bother trying and option iii) is territory unknown.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2018 18:59:19 GMT 1
The sooner it's done and the NHS gets it's extra £350 million per week the better. Yeah, I'll be pleased when it's over the line.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Nov 27, 2018 20:01:55 GMT 1
We keep hearing about how "overturning" the referendum result will lead to anarchy but the reality is that the Leave side has been pretty lethargic when it comes to getting people out on the street to protest.
First, there was Farage's promised "million man march" or whatever in response to Gina Miller's case. A handful of people showed up in the end. There was only a handful of people there at the counter protest to the recent People's Vote March.
Essentially, Leave were really good at harvesting clicks and likes from the disaffected, disengaged and apathetic but there's a big difference between that and actually getting out to protest.
People also seem to forget that there are precedents. Republic of Ireland had a second referendum on the Lisbon treaty. Switzerland also backed down after a recent vote to end Freedom of Movement. Neither country has descended into anarchy since.
Even the 5 star movement in Italy (who we were told were rabid leavers themselves) backed away from "Itexit" as a policy once they actually got into power.
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Post by Worthingshrew on Nov 27, 2018 20:12:38 GMT 1
There’s been much more intelligence in this thread on Brexit than in any of the threads about a new manager.
Also more readable and understandable than anything in the media.
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