3.40 at Bangor today

[samsasholedagain]

Appologies but in the drunken haze that was SHREWSBURY 4 HEREFORD 1 I can remember promising to post my thoughts on todays last race at Bangor for somebody who fancied a horse strongly in the race, I can not remember who they were or the horse was.

Anyway, for what its worth my thoughts are, although there are 16 runners 11 of them can be dismissed out of hand as being useless. Imperial Dream is a full brother to the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Call and is therefore a 3 mile chaser. Although he is well tipped in most of todays papers he should find things happening to quickly for him over 2 miles over hurdles today.

I was at Ludlow 2 weeks ago when Spike Jones won by 22 lengths! Most people are devaluing that form by saying the opposition was rubbish (agreed it wasn't very good) and the betting that day showed little stable confidence in him. The time he recorded however was very good and I cannot see him being out of the first 3 and have some 6 / 1 each way early doors on the phone with Paddy Power Bookies.

Travellers Heir will probably start favourite and has a fair bit in his favour (best jockey in Richard Johnson, good run last time, and has chosen this race which was the easiest of the 5 he was entered in this weekend).

I see the race as a match between Travellers Heir and Spike Jones, but Spike Jones has the following in his favour:-

1) He is getting 7lb from Travellers Heir
2) Travellers Heir was fortunate to win last week as the second horse looked the likely winner until a bad mistake at the last.
3) Timeform (significantly) rate Spike Jones 4lbs the better horse at level weights.

I am going to Bangor and, having had a good each way bet on Spike Jones I may have a smaller bet on Travellers Heir, and hopefully collect twice when they are both placed.



Hope this helps

[ShrewsAde]

it lost

[PeteD]

tad unlucky then

[samsasholedagain]

Hi Mike, thanks for e-mail last night.

It was unlucky in the extreme, It was seemingly full of running in third place until it clipped the top of the third last hurdle and cut its front leg, which ended any chance.

The jockey inexplicably did not pull the horse up but carried on to the finish and it trailed in nineth. He wished he hadn't, the course Vet has referred the matter to the jockey club as it finished very distressed and a heavy fine could follow.

Managed to grab a word with one of the owners after the jockey de-briefed him after the race. The Jockey said he easily had the measure of the second horse prior to the mistake and would have given the winner a real battle.

As posted we did have a saving bet on the winner but having backed Spike each way we were quite unlucky not to collect on both horses. Interesting to see the interview with the winning jockey (Richard Johnson) on the racing channel. He said he looked round with a circuit to go and thought Spike Jones was going ominously well and rated a big threat, then he looked round for dangers two fences out and saw none.


Damned unlucky !!!

That Mares race you asked me to look at is on 11th December (at Ludlow). Will go through the form and get back to you.