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Post by Exkeeper on Mar 18, 2024 13:23:55 GMT 1
Du they often get it wrong? Last week they had us to finish in the bottom 4. I checked Bet365 this morning and the odds against our relegation were 9/1 meaning that a tenner on us to get relegated would return a hundred quid (including return of stake money) if the unthinkable happened. Small consolation I know and not something I will do but others might. From memory, they are expecting the current bottom to drop with Cambridge and Burton just above the line. Just to show how generous they are, if you wanted to profit by backing Carlisle to go down, you can place a bet of £2000 and when they drop you can reclaim your stake money plus your winnings of £1.
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Post by Pilch on Mar 18, 2024 13:38:50 GMT 1
they have got it wrong ( of course in their favour ) because I'd say our true odds of relegation are more like 33/1
Poor Odds 9/1
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 18, 2024 17:45:45 GMT 1
they have got it wrong ( of course in their favour ) because I'd say our true odds of relegation are more like 33/1 Poor Odds 9/1 They always run with an overround (their margin overall) minimum 20% across the entire book usually much more. Once a market gets going it is about weight of money not real likelihoods... My matsh says Cmabridge are more likely to have aproblem than perhaps you might think, but all we can do is win our own..
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mahoney
Shropshire County League
Posts: 74
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Post by mahoney on Mar 18, 2024 18:09:42 GMT 1
they have got it wrong ( of course in their favour ) because I'd say our true odds of relegation are more like 33/1 Poor Odds 9/1 They always run with an overround (their margin overall) minimum 20% across the entire book usually much more. Once a market gets going it is about weight of money not real likelihoods... My matsh says Cmabridge are more likely to have aproblem than perhaps you might think, but all we can do is win our own.. Problem is currently at 7/4 I don't think that's good value. I actually think the value lies with port vale at 1/4, I can't see that they've got a one in five chance of staying up, but the returns are poor.
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Post by venceremos on Mar 18, 2024 19:18:11 GMT 1
they have got it wrong ( of course in their favour ) because I'd say our true odds of relegation are more like 33/1 Poor Odds 9/1 They always run with an overround (their margin overall) minimum 20% across the entire book usually much more. Once a market gets going it is about weight of money not real likelihoods... My matsh says Cmabridge are more likely to have aproblem than perhaps you might think, but all we can do is win our own.. An impartial observer would look at the league table and think Shrewsbury are safe already. We don't feel so comfortable of course. Being as objective as I can, I'd say Carlisle are down, Port Vale and Fleetwood will follow and it's between Cheltenham and Cambridge for the last place. Awkward looking run in for Cambridge, so they'd be my tip to complete the falling four.
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Post by shrewsburytownfan on Mar 18, 2024 21:06:02 GMT 1
Can't see port vale staying up as there terrible. They still have to play Wigan Bolton and Peterborough away which is 3 defeats for starters.They do have Burton away next Saturday and Cambridge at home last game of the season that are winnable, but based on how they played against us last week and how my mate who is a vale fan said they played on Saturday in losing to Oxford, he doesn't think they will win another game this season.
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Post by GrizzlyShrew on Mar 19, 2024 0:58:03 GMT 1
Can't see port vale staying up as there terrible. They still have to play Wigan Bolton and Peterborough away which is 3 defeats for starters.They do have Burton away next Saturday and Cambridge at home last game of the season that are winnable, but based on how they played against us last week and how my mate who is a vale fan said they played on Saturday in losing to Oxford, he doesn't think they will win another game this season. My Burton supporting mate is classing the Vale game as a Must Win but no confidence that they will do it. Think Carlisle doing the double over them (in just their 5 wins this season) doesnt help.
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Post by Pilch on Mar 19, 2024 13:12:16 GMT 1
amazingly Exeter are 3 points ahead of us, we all know what might have been had the ref not stopped the contest after 5 minutes of the opening round you can get 150/1 on them going down ok , they do have a doddle of a run in, makes you wonder if they tipped the fixture secretary Shrewsbury 0 v 3 Exeter Exeter 1 v 0 Burton Exeter v Charlton Cheltenham v Exeter Exeter v Stevenage Leyton Orient v Exeter Port Vale v Exeter Northampton v Exeter Exeter v Oxford
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Post by Exkeeper on Mar 19, 2024 13:37:41 GMT 1
amazingly Exeter are 3 points ahead of us, we all know what might have been had the ref not stopped the contest after 5 minutes of the opening round you can get 150/1 on them going down ok , they do have a doddle of a run in, makes you wonder if they tipped the fixture secretary Shrewsbury 0 v 3 Exeter Exeter 1 v 0 Burton Exeter v Charlton Cheltenham v Exeter Exeter v Stevenage Leyton Orient v Exeter Port Vale v Exeter Northampton v Exeter Exeter v Oxford The fact that they already have 47 points should see them safe. Carlisle are goners, Fleetwood and Vale would need to win half of their remaining matches to overhaul them and then Cambridge and Burton are on a downward spiral. For me, the bottom 3 will go along with either Cambridge or Cheltenham. Cheltenham is a more attractive trip for us next season but we have failed to turn up on our last two visits there. Mr Hurst will hopefully turn that around.
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Post by Exkeeper on Mar 19, 2024 13:45:53 GMT 1
Looking at the current Form table over the last 6 games, Cambridge and Burton have just 1 point, Vale have 2 and Cheltenham 3. None of them could be described as being “on fire!”
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Post by Pilch on Mar 19, 2024 13:51:06 GMT 1
amazingly Exeter are 3 points ahead of us, we all know what might have been had the ref not stopped the contest after 5 minutes of the opening round you can get 150/1 on them going down ok , they do have a doddle of a run in, makes you wonder if they tipped the fixture secretary Shrewsbury 0 v 3 Exeter Exeter 1 v 0 Burton Exeter v Charlton Cheltenham v Exeter Exeter v Stevenage Leyton Orient v Exeter Port Vale v Exeter Northampton v Exeter Exeter v Oxford The fact that they already have 47 points should see them safe. Carlisle are goners, Fleetwood and Vale would need to win half of their remaining matches to overhaul them and then Cambridge and Burton are on a downward spiral. For me, the bottom 3 will go along with either Cambridge or Cheltenham. Cheltenham is a more attractive trip for us next season but we have failed to turn up on our last two visits there. Mr Hurst will hopefully turn that around. I think if Fleetwood go and we dont it would leave us as the longest remaining league 1 club from the 24 next season
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Post by gainsparkshrew on Mar 19, 2024 14:27:09 GMT 1
The fact that they already have 47 points should see them safe. Carlisle are goners, Fleetwood and Vale would need to win half of their remaining matches to overhaul them and then Cambridge and Burton are on a downward spiral. For me, the bottom 3 will go along with either Cambridge or Cheltenham. Cheltenham is a more attractive trip for us next season but we have failed to turn up on our last two visits there. Mr Hurst will hopefully turn that around. I think if Fleetwood go and we dont it would leave us as the longest remaining league 1 club from the 24 next season Yep that's correct. That would mean that we would then have every right to refer to L1 as "the Shrewsbury division".....it's written into the rules of the game and everything 😁😁😁😁
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Post by GlosShrew on Mar 19, 2024 14:40:53 GMT 1
Well according to this prediction - we will only get two more points!! However still safe!!
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Post by belfastshrew on Mar 19, 2024 14:48:07 GMT 1
Hard to see Lincoln not getting a playoff spot with their insanely good form since the start of the year.
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Post by chirkshrew on Mar 19, 2024 17:40:45 GMT 1
Hope they do,and prove it can be done by the lesser clubs....that Joe Taylor,and moylan are on fire... Good luck to em
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 19, 2024 18:06:12 GMT 1
Hard to see Lincoln not getting a playoff spot with their insanely good form since the start of the year. I got reasonable odds on it last week.
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