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Post by davycrockett on Mar 4, 2024 10:56:05 GMT 1
Sutton seemed to want him, perhaps I'd have got him down there whatever the terms of their part of his wages. That might have left some scope for bringing in an out of contract player if we could find the right sort. He's just making up the numbers, there must be any number of out of contracts that could do a better job. do you seriously think we denied Sutton extending his loan ? I asked MM about him at the on 17th Jan, it was a kind of glum reply saying he's back on 21st jan here's a bit of fun, totally guesswork but shocking all the same I'm guessing he's on 4K a week and also we pay £1k a week when he is on loan he's been with us 47 weeks hes been on loan 41 weeks thats £229k hes cost us as for league game time, he's played a total of 140 minutes ( about 1.5 games ) we are paying him the equivalent of £150K a game great signing that You can’t turn a guess into a fact 😂 you start off I’m guessing then talk as if it’s fact. The truth is somewhere in between as usual 😉 Lousy signing I think we’d all agree.
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 4, 2024 11:04:29 GMT 1
do you seriously think we denied Sutton extending his loan ? I asked MM about him at the on 17th Jan, it was a kind of glum reply saying he's back on 21st jan here's a bit of fun, totally guesswork but shocking all the same I'm guessing he's on 4K a week and also we pay £1k a week when he is on loan he's been with us 47 weeks hes been on loan 41 weeks thats £229k hes cost us as for league game time, he's played a total of 140 minutes ( about 1.5 games ) we are paying him the equivalent of £150K a game great signing that You can’t turn a guess into a fact 😂 you start off I’m guessing then talk as if it’s fact. The truth is somewhere in between as usual 😉 Lousy signing I think we’d all agree. Equally as lousy as plenty of others. Pyke cost us £300k, other I'm sure cost more for very little involvement. A sign of how dangerous letting some managers go gung-ho can be, Pyke had zero form, ever. O'Brien scored a few, but again woefully lacking in any consistency before getting a bit deal here.
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 4, 2024 11:33:41 GMT 1
You can’t turn a guess into a fact 😂 you start off I’m guessing then talk as if it’s fact. The truth is somewhere in between as usual 😉 Lousy signing I think we’d all agree. Equally as lousy as plenty of others. Pyke cost us £300k, other I'm sure cost more for very little involvement. A sign of how dangerous letting some managers go gung-ho can be, Pyke had zero form, ever. O'Brien scored a few, but again woefully lacking in any consistency before getting a bit deal here. While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something?
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Post by Feedo Gnasher on Mar 4, 2024 11:38:44 GMT 1
Pyke was well short of the required quality although was coached into being a decent squad option. The saddest fact is due to the mess made in the summer, he’d actually have been no worse for us this season at either RWB under Taylor or even RW now.
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mahoney
Shropshire County League
Posts: 71
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Post by mahoney on Mar 4, 2024 11:45:20 GMT 1
As a bit of a stats geek who does lots of predictive modelling for work I decided to put my skills to work forecasting the end of the season.
I've built a model based on the probability of each result for each of the remaining league one games this season, I've then run model thousands of times to mimic the season being completed thousands of times. At the end I get a percentage chance of each team finishing in each position. Basically a pound shop Opta.
Thought it may be of interest to some on here.
Percentage chance of relegation as follows:
Carlisle 100% Fleetwood 94% Vale 82% Cheltenham 34% Shrews 23% Cambridge 16% Burton 14% Reading 12% Charlton 10% Exeter 10% Wycombe 3%
I guess the thing that stands out of this is pretty much what you'd predict looking at the table which indicates no one has a massively favourable run in.
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Post by Minormorris64 on Mar 4, 2024 11:46:56 GMT 1
Sutton seemed to want him, perhaps I'd have got him down there whatever the terms of their part of his wages. That might have left some scope for bringing in an out of contract player if we could find the right sort. He's just making up the numbers, there must be any number of out of contracts that could do a better job. do you seriously think we denied Sutton extending his loan ? I asked MM about him at the on 17th Jan, it was a kind of glum reply saying he's back on 21st jan here's a bit of fun, totally guesswork but shocking all the same I'm guessing he's on 4K a week and also we pay £1k a week when he is on loan he's been with us 47 weeks hes been on loan 41 weeks thats £229k hes cost us as for league game time, he's played a total of 140 minutes ( about 1.5 games ) we are paying him the equivalent of £150K a game great signing that The total Wage bill for the WHOLE Club in the last set of Accounts was £3.9 million if he is on 5% of that at £200 k, then football has gone totally mad, no way is he on £4,000 a week (or shouldn't be). Its time for the real world to bite Footballs ar$e and send a few clubs to the knackers yard.
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 4, 2024 11:48:21 GMT 1
I think based on us getting him on a free he is very likely around the £4,000 mark, we beat Portsmouth to his signature.
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Post by londonshrew75 on Mar 4, 2024 13:55:53 GMT 1
We've got to her over this O'brien waste of money saga. It's done now and fortunately Cotterill and Taylor/Bignott have gone. Deep deep down player's don't really care and you can't blame them as it's there job. The way I look at it, he needs to get himself in the shop window as he's the type of player who will be clubless in August. Yes. He's a mercinery, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hurst said to him your playing the last ten games he'd go and get us five goals an a couple of assistants ? Let's get real here, Bowman isn't going to cut it and Udoh just isn't 100%
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Post by Worthingshrew on Mar 4, 2024 14:01:00 GMT 1
O’Brien’s body language over last few weeks looks OK, celebrating with players when we’ve scored. I’d rather have him as an option than not at all. Perhaps he’d be the sub-keeper if Burgoyne got red card or injured?
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PHBA
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 102
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Post by PHBA on Mar 4, 2024 14:01:19 GMT 1
We've got to her over this O'brien waste of money saga. It's done now and fortunately Cotterill and Taylor/Bignott have gone. Deep deep down player's don't really care and you can't blame them as it's there job. The way I look at it, he needs to get himself in the shop window as he's the type of player who will be clubless in August. Yes. He's a mercinery, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hurst said to him your playing the last ten games he'd go and get us five goals an a couple of assistants ? Let's get real here, Bowman isn't going to cut it and Udoh just isn't 100% Bowman has never been a goalscorer has he. I have rated him overall, he's there to do the dirty work, but that's only worth having when you have an inform Udoh (which he is not)
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Post by Pilch on Mar 4, 2024 14:15:38 GMT 1
lol still pyke fishing going on in 2024
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 4, 2024 15:19:58 GMT 1
lol still O'Brien fishing going on in 2024
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Post by chirkshrew on Mar 4, 2024 15:22:52 GMT 1
Play him instead of bayliss
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Post by staffordshrew on Mar 4, 2024 19:06:00 GMT 1
Hurst knows them, sees them in training, knows their fitness and health. He's put many of them on for a few minutes, no oner has claimed a starting place. So, in Hurst we trust.
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Post by suttonshrew on Mar 4, 2024 19:14:21 GMT 1
Equally as lousy as plenty of others. Pyke cost us £300k, other I'm sure cost more for very little involvement. A sign of how dangerous letting some managers go gung-ho can be, Pyke had zero form, ever. O'Brien scored a few, but again woefully lacking in any consistency before getting a bit deal here. While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something? some good analysis there, id say it was because he had pace, so teams stood off us a little more. I dont know what Thorpe was like but we sadly lack pace this season which ultimately means we don't stretch teams, look at what their number 11 did to us on Saturday, yeah he had quality as well but at out level pave scares defenders to death.... just my opinion though lol
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 4, 2024 19:20:50 GMT 1
Equally as lousy as plenty of others. Pyke cost us £300k, other I'm sure cost more for very little involvement. A sign of how dangerous letting some managers go gung-ho can be, Pyke had zero form, ever. O'Brien scored a few, but again woefully lacking in any consistency before getting a bit deal here. While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something? It's ironic that the summer recruitment was that bad that he'd probably be a regular starter at RB now 😂 Roll on staying up and starting again in the summer! Fingers crossed 🤞
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Post by chirkshrew on Mar 4, 2024 19:48:12 GMT 1
The only player to come out with any credit for Mickey Moore....is Mal benning....been excellent,and probably the most consistent the last few months.....the others🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦
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Post by Pilch on Mar 4, 2024 21:36:33 GMT 1
Equally as lousy as plenty of others. Pyke cost us £300k, other I'm sure cost more for very little involvement. A sign of how dangerous letting some managers go gung-ho can be, Pyke had zero form, ever. O'Brien scored a few, but again woefully lacking in any consistency before getting a bit deal here. While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something? its not really about how good pyke was, most of us appreciated his versatility , its called childish Pyke fishing, every few weeks Martin likes to spoil a thread by bringing up Pyke and his £2k a week and feedo joins in, if you can picture Dennis the menace with (feedo) gnasher grinning by his side, thats them really funny isn't it ( readers voice )
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Post by Feedo Gnasher on Mar 4, 2024 21:46:32 GMT 1
While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something? its not really about how good pyke was, most of us appreciated his versatility , its called childish Pyke fishing, every few weeks Martin likes to spoil a thread by bringing up Pyke and his £2k a week and feedo joins in, if you can picture Dennis the menace with (feedo) gnasher grinning by his side, thats them really funny isn't it ( readers voice ) What on Earth are you going on about?! I just searched my past posts for mentions of Pyke and the last reference was back in November when Grizzly’s letters game was on P - somebody call the messageboard police!
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Post by Pilch on Mar 4, 2024 21:49:23 GMT 1
Pyke was well short of the required quality although was coached into being a decent squad option. The saddest fact is due to the mess made in the summer, he’d actually have been no worse for us this season at either RWB under Taylor or even RW now. they don't even know they are doing it
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Post by Bob Rickerton on Mar 4, 2024 23:38:29 GMT 1
Jury's verdict:
Martin - guilty of Pyke fishing along with various other fishing attempts upon the admin (28 day ban) Pilch - guilty of O'Brien fishing (6 day ban, not as egregious but a lesson should be taught) Chirky - Guilty of bringing the fact he doesn't rate Bayliss into every thread including presumably the Israel Palestine thread (banned until Bayliss leaves the club)
If a mod could put these into action I'd be grateful
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 5, 2024 0:04:24 GMT 1
Some don't like the truth, I'm not sure why Pykes wage annoys some people so much?!
O'Brien is likely on double, frustrating but I wouldn't drown my sorrows and cry about it all evening; just needs assigning to the "s**t signings" pile with Pyke & plenty of others.
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Post by Pilch on Mar 5, 2024 1:23:31 GMT 1
Some don't like the truth, I'm not sure why Pykes wage annoys some people so much?! O'Brien is likely on double, frustrating but I wouldn't drown my sorrows and cry about it all evening; just needs assigning to the "s**t signings" pile with Pyke & plenty of others. and yet we still go on about pyke ? Bizarre
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Post by staffordshrew on Mar 5, 2024 11:00:08 GMT 1
It's fair to say that this season's run in needs to be a lot better than last season's.
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 5, 2024 19:40:39 GMT 1
The only player to come out with any credit for Mickey Moore....is Mal benning....been excellent,and probably the most consistent the last few months.....the others🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦 Surely there is some credit for the others? Sraha we like and is improving rapidly...anyone else you would maybe give a partial credit for? AP is a big hole and was quality at the back for me.
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 5, 2024 19:43:07 GMT 1
As a bit of a stats geek who does lots of predictive modelling for work I decided to put my skills to work forecasting the end of the season. I've built a model based on the probability of each result for each of the remaining league one games this season, I've then run model thousands of times to mimic the season being completed thousands of times. At the end I get a percentage chance of each team finishing in each position. Basically a pound shop Opta. Thought it may be of interest to some on here. Percentage chance of relegation as follows: Carlisle 100% Fleetwood 94% Vale 82% Cheltenham 34% Shrews 23% Cambridge 16% Burton 14% Reading 12% Charlton 10% Exeter 10% Wycombe 3% I guess the thing that stands out of this is pretty much what you'd predict looking at the table which indicates no one has a massively favourable run in. Top stuff I did something less extensive that seems to suggest Cambridge are more at risk, Any chance of you rerunning these figures periodcally during the run in? Might settle my nerves at least :-) I suspect many would appreciate it
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 5, 2024 19:44:12 GMT 1
While I don't disagree based on what we saw, I once did an analysis (December 22) of the points we achieved when Pyke started, when he came on as a sub and when he did not play last season. I had thought it would show we were better off with others, but it did not, in fact it showed we got more points per game when he played. It was 6 wins, 1 draw 5 losses when he started and 2 wins, 4 draws 5 losses when he did not. No idea why, someone else can probably tell us, did he just tire them out or something? It's ironic that the summer recruitment was that bad that he'd probably be a regular starter at RB now 😂 Roll on staying up and starting again in the summer! Fingers crossed 🤞 Just fingers? Any reason not toes as well?
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Post by martinshrew on Mar 5, 2024 22:33:38 GMT 1
It's ironic that the summer recruitment was that bad that he'd probably be a regular starter at RB now 😂 Roll on staying up and starting again in the summer! Fingers crossed 🤞 Just fingers? Any reason not toes as well? Fingers, toes & b******s crossed! 👍
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Post by dibblydobbly on Mar 5, 2024 23:39:14 GMT 1
Just fingers? Any reason not toes as well? Fingers, toes & b******s crossed! 👍 Ouch LOL
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