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Post by northwestman on Jul 17, 2023 15:11:07 GMT 1
She's certainly doing a fine job as a constituency M.P.
I've had cause to contact her half a dozen times, and every time I've received a very prompt, courteous, helpful and informative reply.
She's been training her sights on Shropshire Council this week:
'I raised the dire state of Shropshire Council's finances in Parliament on Monday. There are serious questions to be answered from the county leadership about how we have ended up in such a weak position, with so little left in our reserves and so many examples of wasteful spending. This is not helped by the fact that rural councils like ours are not receiving their fair share of funding from central government. I asked the Secretary of State to take funding for rural areas seriously, and acknowledge the added challenges of delivering services in places like Shropshire'.
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Post by kenwood on Jul 17, 2023 16:40:19 GMT 1
Yes, I agree from what I have been told she is doing a really fine job. Will her good work be enough to get her elected next time around or will the North Shropshire electorate decide that it’s time to revert back to a Conservative MP. The Labour Party can forget getting even a sniff at winning this seat .
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Post by davycrockett on Jul 17, 2023 16:46:47 GMT 1
She’s certainly asking the right questions. The proof will be if she actually makes a difference from the answers she receives. Refreshing though, sounds someone who cares.
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Post by northwestman on Jul 17, 2023 17:19:35 GMT 1
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Post by zenfootball2 on Jul 18, 2023 13:50:30 GMT 1
She's certainly doing a fine job as a constituency M.P. I've had cause to contact her half a dozen times, and every time I've received a very prompt, courteous, helpful and informative reply. She's been training her sights on Shropshire Council this week: 'I raised the dire state of Shropshire Council's finances in Parliament on Monday. There are serious questions to be answered from the county leadership about how we have ended up in such a weak position, with so little left in our reserves and so many examples of wasteful spending. This is not helped by the fact that rural councils like ours are not receiving their fair share of funding from central government. I asked the Secretary of State to take funding for rural areas seriously, and acknowledge the added challenges of delivering services in places like Shropshire'. . Such questions are well overdue
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rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 143
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Post by rob62 on Jul 18, 2023 16:22:16 GMT 1
It would be an absolute travesty if Labour and the Greens campaigned hard in North Shropshire and let the Tories back in.
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Post by salop27 on Jul 20, 2023 9:15:12 GMT 1
I have to say I have the opposite view and it's nothing against Ms Morgan herself. As a Lib Dem MP she's just highlighted how the political parties and the games they play have run the UK into the ground.
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Post by staffordshrew on Jul 20, 2023 14:42:37 GMT 1
I have to say I have the opposite view and it's nothing against Ms Morgan herself. As a Lib Dem MP she's just highlighted how the political parties and the games they play have run the UK into the ground. What exacrly is the opposite view? There's some fine MPs in all the parties, she seems to be one of those, unlike the previous encumbent who appeared to have taken liberties, assuming that North Shropshire would always vote Tory.
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Post by block12massive on Jul 20, 2023 15:30:36 GMT 1
I have to say I have the opposite view and it's nothing against Ms Morgan herself. As a Lib Dem MP she's just highlighted how the political parties and the games they play have run the UK into the ground. How dare you have an opposing view. Ms Morgan must be worshipped and obeyed. Anyone who thinks differently is definitely a Tory and should be kicked out of this echo chamber immediately!
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Post by staffordshrew on Jul 20, 2023 17:00:01 GMT 1
I have to say I have the opposite view and it's nothing against Ms Morgan herself. As a Lib Dem MP she's just highlighted how the political parties and the games they play have run the UK into the ground. How dare you have an opposing view. Ms Morgan must be worshipped and obeyed. SSo Anyone who thinks differently is definitely a Tory and should be kicked out of this echo chamber immediately! So is she not doing a better job than the previous MP then?
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Post by mattmw on Jul 20, 2023 17:15:52 GMT 1
Think its always difficult for a MP from an opposition party to come in half way through a term and make a real difference.
The points Helen Morgan makes in Parliament and locally are very well made and point out the flaws in Government policy, but being in opposition means she doesn't really have any tools at her disposal to make real change. If anything the area she represents is going to get less favourable funding decisions from central government now its not a Conservative seat. I do hear she is very active and helpful as a constituancy MP and very approachable too which is always good to hear.
Will be interesting to see how Thursdays by elections go. Start of a conservative revival if they hold a few seats, or the beguinning of the end of the Conservatives losing the next general election. We might eventually get a 4th one if Dorres can be arsed to put her resignation in
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Post by staffordshrew on Jul 20, 2023 19:55:58 GMT 1
Think its always difficult for a MP from an opposition party to come in half way through a term and make a real difference. The points Helen Morgan makes in Parliament and locally are very well made and point out the flaws in Government policy, but being in opposition means she doesn't really have any tools at her disposal to make real change. If anything the area she represents is going to get less favourable funding decisions from central government now its not a Conservative seat. I do hear she is very active and helpful as a constituancy MP and very approachable too which is always good to hear. Will be interesting to see how Thursdays by elections go. Start of a conservative revival if they hold a few seats, or the beguinning of the end of the Conservatives losing the next general election. We might eventually get a 4th one if Dorres can be arsed to put her resignation in Nadne is waiting over the summer recess, she stands to pocket £22,000 of taxpayer's money for doing virtually nothing by delaying her resignation until September.
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Post by mattmw on Jul 21, 2023 6:28:48 GMT 1
Big wins for Lib Dem’s and Labour in two of the by elections on a scale Helen Morgan achieved in north Shropshire overnight
Tactical voting playing a big part in the results which is likely to factor in the general election
But quite a crucial hold for the Conservatives in Uxbridge - which probably rules out any leadership challenge to Sunak ahead of the general election. Ironically had Johnson not had his strop and resigned he would still be an MP and might have challenged Sunak again - so all round Sunak will probably be very pleased with the result
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Post by neilsalop on Jul 21, 2023 6:34:16 GMT 1
Will be interesting to see how Thursdays by elections go. Start of a conservative revival if they hold a few seats, or the beguinning of the end of the Conservatives losing the next general election. We might eventually get a 4th one if Dorres can be arsed to put her resignation in Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, a mainly rural constituency that has been blue since its creation in 2010, with a 21% swing
The LibDems win in Somerton and Frome, in an area of the country that was a bit of a stronghold for them prior to the coalition years, with a 28% swing.
The Tories just about hang on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Johnsons old seat, by just 495 votes, down by over 7,000.
I don't think there is a clear picture in these results, but one thing that is obvious to all is that the two main opposition parties put most of their resources into the seats that they could win and left the other party to have a better shot at winning the others. That can only be good for the future of politics in the UK in my opinion. Labour need to concentrate on winning the realistic targets, like Telford, the Wrekin and Shrewsbury, and leave the LibDems to pick up the ones where Labour stand no realistic chance, like North and South Shropshire.
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Post by mattmw on Jul 21, 2023 7:53:16 GMT 1
Will be interesting to see how Thursdays by elections go. Start of a conservative revival if they hold a few seats, or the beguinning of the end of the Conservatives losing the next general election. We might eventually get a 4th one if Dorres can be arsed to put her resignation in Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, a mainly rural constituency that has been blue since its creation in 2010, with a 21% swing
The LibDems win in Somerton and Frome, in an area of the country that was a bit of a stronghold for them prior to the coalition years, with a 28% swing.
The Tories just about hang on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Johnsons old seat, by just 495 votes, down by over 7,000.
I don't think there is a clear picture in these results, but one thing that is obvious to all is that the two main opposition parties put most of their resources into the seats that they could win and left the other party to have a better shot at winning the others. That can only be good for the future of politics in the UK in my opinion. Labour need to concentrate on winning the realistic targets, like Telford, the Wrekin and Shrewsbury, and leave the LibDems to pick up the ones where Labour stand no realistic chance, like North and South Shropshire.
I've not seen the data behind it but one political commentator suggested that upto 40 Conservatives seats with less than 10,000 majority could be at lost if tactical voting as seen in the by elections was replicated in the general election. That doesn't include the seasts where its a straight Conservative v Labour fight. With social media and websites offering tactical voting advice its could be a big part of the general election I suspect one area of campaigning the Conservatives will be running in the next 18 months is to try and paint Labour and Liberal Democrates as being in secret partnership to undermine brexit, be pro immigration and too focused on climate change. I suspect that will resonate with a percentage of the population, but they will also have to hope the economy and inflation really change in the next 12 months, as that topic will be the focus of Labour and Liberal Dems campaigning
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Post by block12massive on Jul 21, 2023 8:34:17 GMT 1
How dare you have an opposing view. Ms Morgan must be worshipped and obeyed. SSo Anyone who thinks differently is definitely a Tory and should be kicked out of this echo chamber immediately! So is she not doing a better job than the previous MP then? I don't know. She's not my MP.
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Post by martinshrew on Jul 21, 2023 10:12:24 GMT 1
Labour win in Selby and Ainsty, a mainly rural constituency that has been blue since its creation in 2010, with a 21% swing
The LibDems win in Somerton and Frome, in an area of the country that was a bit of a stronghold for them prior to the coalition years, with a 28% swing.
The Tories just about hang on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Johnsons old seat, by just 495 votes, down by over 7,000.
I don't think there is a clear picture in these results, but one thing that is obvious to all is that the two main opposition parties put most of their resources into the seats that they could win and left the other party to have a better shot at winning the others. That can only be good for the future of politics in the UK in my opinion. Labour need to concentrate on winning the realistic targets, like Telford, the Wrekin and Shrewsbury, and leave the LibDems to pick up the ones where Labour stand no realistic chance, like North and South Shropshire.
I've not seen the data behind it but one political commentator suggested that upto 40 Conservatives seats with less than 10,000 majority could be at lost if tactical voting as seen in the by elections was replicated in the general election. That doesn't include the seasts where its a straight Conservative v Labour fight. With social media and websites offering tactical voting advice its could be a big part of the general election I suspect one area of campaigning the Conservatives will be running in the next 18 months is to try and paint Labour and Liberal Democrates as being in secret partnership to undermine brexit, be pro immigration and too focused on climate change. I suspect that will resonate with a percentage of the population, but they will also have to hope the economy and inflation really change in the next 12 months, as that topic will be the focus of Labour and Liberal Dems campaigning That's a big element I think. If they manage to get inflation way down under 5% and interest rates tails off again, though they effectively caused some of the mess, they can play the card that they're in control of the economy and a portion of the country will just buy that. Same with them saying Labour & Lib Dems are in cahoots, a portion will also buy into that. That said, have Labour tailed off that far as a political force that their only hope of winning is by tactical voting? After 13 years of what some describe as the worst ever government, should Labour not be 1/10 on to absolutely p**s all over the Tories in all corners of the country? I feel if they had a strong leader who didn't flip flop and sit on the bench, it may well be the case. From the sidelines Kier does look a reasonably "safe" pair of hands, it's what sits behind him that keeps me awake at night.
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Post by mattmw on Jul 21, 2023 10:54:33 GMT 1
I've not seen the data behind it but one political commentator suggested that upto 40 Conservatives seats with less than 10,000 majority could be at lost if tactical voting as seen in the by elections was replicated in the general election. That doesn't include the seasts where its a straight Conservative v Labour fight. With social media and websites offering tactical voting advice its could be a big part of the general election I suspect one area of campaigning the Conservatives will be running in the next 18 months is to try and paint Labour and Liberal Democrates as being in secret partnership to undermine brexit, be pro immigration and too focused on climate change. I suspect that will resonate with a percentage of the population, but they will also have to hope the economy and inflation really change in the next 12 months, as that topic will be the focus of Labour and Liberal Dems campaigning That's a big element I think. If they manage to get inflation way down under 5% and interest rates tails off again, though they effectively caused some of the mess, they can play the card that they're in control of the economy and a portion of the country will just buy that. Same with them saying Labour & Lib Dems are in cahoots, a portion will also buy into that. That said, have Labour tailed off that far as a political force that their only hope of winning is by tactical voting? After 13 years of what some describe as the worst ever government, should Labour not be 1/10 on to absolutely p**s all over the Tories in all corners of the country? I feel if they had a strong leader who didn't flip flop and sit on the bench, it may well be the case. From the sidelines Kier does look a reasonably "safe" pair of hands, it's what sits behind him that keeps me awake at night. Odds-checker currently have Labour at 1/7 to get the most seats and 4/9 for a majority so not too far off the 1/10 odds you predicted Think these are too short to make a decent bet on as Labour will almost certainly find a way to shoot themselves in the foot at some point - at least if they can wrestle that gun off Sunak I’m tempted by the 7/2 odds of a Labour minority government as while it’s probably likely they will get the most seats I can’t see them forming a coalition with the Lib Dem’s but might run as a minority with the assumption the Lib Dem’s will back them in votes rather than side with a Conservative opposition The other factor that could play a role is what happens in Scotland as potentially the SNP could lose a lot of seats, but again I’m not sure Labour really has the momentum to pick up that many of the seats
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rob62
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 143
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Post by rob62 on Jul 21, 2023 17:11:54 GMT 1
I think we have reached peak Labour and their lead in thd polls will reduce as inflation and interest rates fall next year.
However I expect them to gain Telford, The Wrekin or Shrewsbury constituencies no chance
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Post by mattmw on Jul 21, 2023 18:14:53 GMT 1
I think we have reached peak Labour and their lead in thd polls will reduce as inflation and interest rates fall next year. However I expect them to gain Telford, The Wrekin or Shrewsbury constituencies no chance The big issue for Labour will be how they are going to explain how they will improve services, pay and invest in transport and commercial infrastructure without significantly raising taxes. Its really easy to point to things that are wrong at the moment but much more difficult to show how they can be improved on a limited budget. Figures for May show Government borrowing against GDP is at its highest level since 1961, and even with the more prudent approach of Jeremy Hunt compared to Liz Truss that ratio of debt to GDP isn't going to shift very far by next autumn, so the party or parties winning the election have limited scope to increase spending without tax increases - which on the back of the economic climate will be a very tough sell. I'm not that sure the general publics feelings on their own personal economic situation will improve much by next year either. While inflation and interest rates should come down, a lot of increases based on the Consumer Price Index like rents, charges, utility and mobile costs get set in September each year, and will kick in in April 2024, its only really by spring 2025 that the inflation figure of 2-3% will be reflected in these costs increases. Around 2 million home owners will be tied into 5% mortgage rate increases too during 23/24 and news about summer crop harvests across Europe and north Africa are not looking good for food prices coming down. Think both parties will be hoping for a warm winter and some move to resolution of the Ukraine situation to help the finances over the winter and give them a bit of room for spending plans from 2025 onwards
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mcrshrew
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 240
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Post by mcrshrew on Jul 22, 2023 12:20:01 GMT 1
I think we have reached peak Labour and their lead in thd polls will reduce as inflation and interest rates fall next year. However I expect them to gain Telford, The Wrekin or Shrewsbury constituencies no chance The big issue for Labour will be how they are going to explain how they will improve services, pay and invest in transport and commercial infrastructure without significantly raising taxes. Its really easy to point to things that are wrong at the moment but much more difficult to show how they can be improved on a limited budget. Figures for May show Government borrowing against GDP is at its highest level since 1961, and even with the more prudent approach of Jeremy Hunt compared to Liz Truss that ratio of debt to GDP isn't going to shift very far by next autumn, so the party or parties winning the election have limited scope to increase spending without tax increases - which on the back of the economic climate will be a very tough sell. I'm not that sure the general publics feelings on their own personal economic situation will improve much by next year either. While inflation and interest rates should come down, a lot of increases based on the Consumer Price Index like rents, charges, utility and mobile costs get set in September each year, and will kick in in April 2024, its only really by spring 2025 that the inflation figure of 2-3% will be reflected in these costs increases. Around 2 million home owners will be tied into 5% mortgage rate increases too during 23/24 and news about summer crop harvests across Europe and north Africa are not looking good for food prices coming down. Think both parties will be hoping for a warm winter and some move to resolution of the Ukraine situation to help the finances over the winter and give them a bit of room for spending plans from 2025 onwards Excellent post from a poster I always look forward to reading. I would add that economically over the last 7 years Brexit, 3 PMs in a year, pandemic contracts given to family and friends, Liz Truss and Kwasi Karteng and others I can't be bothered to look up are all 'unforced errors' that have each set things back. Is it really be that hard for a gov't not to shoot itself and the economy in the foot? Maybe if they can find some measures to ease inflation, mortgages, bills, the cost of living at the beginning, the rest will correct itself to some degree if they don't drop a daily clanger like the current lot.
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Post by northwestman on Jul 24, 2023 19:31:00 GMT 1
30% of the population will ALWAYS vote Tory, even if Sunak gunned down someone in the street.
That was even the case in the Blair landslide victory in 1997.
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