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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2020 17:15:55 GMT 1
A forensic examination of Ferguson's modelling is long overdue. The problem was, it was peer reviewed by SAGE, who disagreed with it, so Mr Ferguson then let it loose to the media, as he was not being agreed with by his peers, this I believe is the change from herd immunity, with shielding from the vulnerable, and elderly, which to be fair seems to have worked in Sweden..... I think that our toll has gone higher as we switched from one plan to another, but then again, I am no expert |
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 9, 2020 18:18:50 GMT 1
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/"The scientist whose calculations about the potentially devastating impact of the coronavirus directly led to the countrywide lockdown has been criticised in the past for flawed research" this is not the first time that his predicted modeling has been crticized from the mail "Now a rival academic has claimed Prof Ferguson has a patchy record of modelling epidemics, which could have led to hasty Ministerial decisions. Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University said Prof Ferguson was previously instrumental in modelling that led to the cull of more than 6 million animals during the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, which left rural Britain economically devastated." "Then, Prof Ferguson and his Imperial colleagues concluded: ‘Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic.’ But Prof Thrusfield, an expert in animal diseases, claimed the model made incorrect assumptions about how foot and mouth disease was transmitted and, in a 2006 review, he claimed Imperial’s foot and mouth model was ‘not fit for purpose’, while in 2011 he said it was ‘severely flawed’
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Post by staffordshrew on May 9, 2020 20:17:51 GMT 1
It seems a shame to waste all the experts on this thread. You should be in charge to show us how it's done. Well, this Government has certainly shown how it's not done. Procurement of PPE, testing policy, over 18,000,000 allowed to come into this country between January and March with only 273 isolated, ports and airports still open, care homes riddled with coronavirus, with hospital patients with the virus being sent to them, handling of the lockdown, with instructions confusing both the general public and the police, suppressing the release of SAGE reports and redacting those that were released to hide any criticisms of government policy. The list is endless. You've got the job, now what do we do? |
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Post by staffordshrew on May 9, 2020 20:21:19 GMT 1
A forensic examination of Ferguson's modelling is long overdue. The problem was, it was peer reviewed by SAGE, who disagreed with it, so Mr Ferguson then let it loose to the media, as he was not being agreed with by his peers, this I believe is the change from herd immunity, with shielding from the vulnerable, and elderly, which to be fair seems to have worked in Sweden..... I think that our toll has gone higher as we switched from one plan to another, but then again, I am no expert Sadly, not enough strength in government and too eager/scared to appease the media. |
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Post by northwestman on May 9, 2020 21:13:59 GMT 1
Well, this Government has certainly shown how it's not done. Procurement of PPE, testing policy, over 18,000,000 allowed to come into this country between January and March with only 273 isolated, ports and airports still open, care homes riddled with coronavirus, with hospital patients with the virus being sent to them, handling of the lockdown, with instructions confusing both the general public and the police, suppressing the release of SAGE reports and redacting those that were released to hide any criticisms of government policy. The list is endless. You've got the job, now what do we do? Regrettably, everything is too late. But addressing these issues one by one I'd suggest the following: 1. Try to improve the procurement process whilst trying to avoid embarrassments such as the Turkish PPE debacle or the dud Chinese ventilators and antibody tests, which all look like panic measures. Nearly 50% of the existing PPE stock being out of date and the amount available reduced in number didn't help of course. 2. Admit earlier that the capacity wasn't there when they abandoned test and trace in March rather than trying to pretend that it was no longer necessary. This admission has only been dragged out of them in the last week or so. Avoid the grandstanding that Hancock and now Boris have involved themselves in by promising a minimum number of tests by the end of a month. These figures then inevitably have to be manipulated for them to achieve their objective and save face, which in turn reduces public confidence. As gwyneddblue and others have found out, the current system still has problems, with care homes in particular still voicing concerns about lack of availability. Improvement is badly needed. 3. They are clearly going to be upsetting the Travel Industry if, as alleged, they are planning to quarantine for 14 days everyone coming into the country after the end of May. They'll have already upset even more by still having our borders open throughout this coronavirus crisis. Then all of a sudden they change the policy. Better late than never I guess, but the horse has long since bolted. 4. Care homes are a major problem for the government. More PPE would obviously help, as would not placing hospital patients in those homes when they already either have coronavirus or when it's not known whether they have contracted it. As there is now clearly quite a significant amount of ICU capacity in both the mainstream hospitals and the Nightingale wards, would it be beneficial for some care home residents to be transferred to those? 5. When releasing the details of what is to be permitted to partially remove ourselves from lockdown, be a lot more specific when issuing the guidelines rather than leaving both the public and the police unsure as to the boundaries. 6. Release the remainder of the SAGE reports with as little redacted as possible, even though some of those reports cover advice to ministers on stopping flights from certain countries, when to stop contract tracing, and the impact of school closures. Above all, stop trying to either obfuscate or hide things from the general public. |
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Post by staffordshrew on May 9, 2020 21:20:57 GMT 1
You've got the job, now what do we do? Regrettably, everything is too late. But addressing these issues one by one I'd suggest the following: 1. Try to improve the procurement process whilst trying to avoid embarrassments such as the Turkish PPE debacle or the dud Chinese ventilators and antibody tests, which all look like panic measures. Nearly 50% of the existing PPE stock being out of date and the amount available reduced in number didn't help of course. 2. Admit earlier that the capacity wasn't there when they abandoned test and trace in March rather than trying to pretend that it was no longer necessary. This admission has only been dragged out of them in the last week or so. Avoid the grandstanding that Hancock and now Boris have involved themselves in by promising a minimum number of tests by the end of a month. These figures then inevitably have to be manipulated for them to achieve their objective and save face, which in turn reduces public confidence. As gwyneddblue and others have found out, the current system still has problems, with care homes in particular still voicing concerns about lack of availability. Improvement is badly needed. 3. They are clearly going to be upsetting the Travel Industry if, as alleged, they are planning to quarantine for 14 days everyone coming into the country after the end of May. They'll have already upset even more by still having our borders open throughout this coronavirus crisis. Then all of a sudden they change the policy. Better late than never I guess, but the horse has long since bolted. 4. Care homes are a major problem for the government. More PPE would obviously help, as would not placing hospital patients in those homes when they already either have coronavirus or when it's not known whether they have contracted it. As there is now clearly quite a significant amount of ICU capacity in both the mainstream hospitals and the Nightingale wards, would it be beneficial for some care home residents to be transferred to those? 5. When releasing the details of what is to be permitted to partially remove ourselves from lockdown, be a lot more specific when issuing the guidelines rather than leaving both the public and the police unsure as to the boundaries. 6. Release the remainder of the SAGE reports with as little redacted as possible, even though some of those reports cover advice to ministers on stopping flights from certain countries, when to stop contract tracing, and the impact of school closures. Above all, stop trying to either obfuscate or hide things from the general public. I would send a memo to all ministers involved: " don't be afraid to tell the truth, because the truth always gets out in the end". |
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Post by northwestman on May 9, 2020 21:34:35 GMT 1
I could have added a 7th point, which would be to conduct a forensic examination of Professor Ferguson's modelling by an independent panel of experts, the members of which are NOT appointed by the government.
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Post by northwestman on May 9, 2020 22:19:53 GMT 1
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Post by staffordshrew on May 9, 2020 22:31:13 GMT 1
Expect a huge tax increase on the petrol - to keep people out of their cars and pay for the debts built up in the last month or two. Not so sure the busses are going to need huge capacity though - those who have worked sucessfully from home will probably continue most days a week, it saves the bosses money on office space and heating. The biggest problem in rural Shropshire and Staffordshire is going to be getting the secondary school children in to school - school bus runs have been set up to use every available coach with every seat filled. |
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Post by indalo on May 10, 2020 0:51:00 GMT 1
You've got the job, now what do we do? Regrettably, everything is too late. But addressing these issues one by one I'd suggest the following: 1. Try to improve the procurement process whilst trying to avoid embarrassments such as the Turkish PPE debacle or the dud Chinese ventilators and antibody tests, which all look like panic measures. Nearly 50% of the existing PPE stock being out of date and the amount available reduced in number didn't help of course. 2. Admit earlier that the capacity wasn't there when they abandoned test and trace in March rather than trying to pretend that it was no longer necessary. This admission has only been dragged out of them in the last week or so. Avoid the grandstanding that Hancock and now Boris have involved themselves in by promising a minimum number of tests by the end of a month. These figures then inevitably have to be manipulated for them to achieve their objective and save face, which in turn reduces public confidence. As gwyneddblue and others have found out, the current system still has problems, with care homes in particular still voicing concerns about lack of availability. Improvement is badly needed. 3. They are clearly going to be upsetting the Travel Industry if, as alleged, they are planning to quarantine for 14 days everyone coming into the country after the end of May. They'll have already upset even more by still having our borders open throughout this coronavirus crisis. Then all of a sudden they change the policy. Better late than never I guess, but the horse has long since bolted. 4. Care homes are a major problem for the government. More PPE would obviously help, as would not placing hospital patients in those homes when they already either have coronavirus or when it's not known whether they have contracted it. As there is now clearly quite a significant amount of ICU capacity in both the mainstream hospitals and the Nightingale wards, would it be beneficial for some care home residents to be transferred to those? 5. When releasing the details of what is to be permitted to partially remove ourselves from lockdown, be a lot more specific when issuing the guidelines rather than leaving both the public and the police unsure as to the boundaries. 6. Release the remainder of the SAGE reports with as little redacted as possible, even though some of those reports cover advice to ministers on stopping flights from certain countries, when to stop contract tracing, and the impact of school closures. Above all, stop trying to either obfuscate or hide things from the general public. Thanks for that , I much prefer to be reading your own thoughts rather than quotes from the media and I agree with much of what you are saying there. If there is one good thing to come out of the current crisis it will be some very serious changes in all of our priorities in life . Hopefully this and future governments will put the health and wellbeing of all our citizens before all else . It's not a crime for anyone to make mistakes when they are under extreme pressure and I believe the public will be reasonably forgiving so long as the lessons are learned and seen to be acted upon. So if I could have one wish ,what would it be? Bin all the vanity projects and spend our money where it counts,no more Cinderellas in the health and care sectors please. |
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Post by Pilch on May 10, 2020 1:43:05 GMT 1
you basically moan at everything you see ;-) Another thing for me to moan at: Yesterday’s street parties. Many examples on tv of social distancing not being followed. Sharing drinks, the irony of mingling with each other in front of their houses which have Rainbows and slogans saying protect the nhs in their windows. but why are you moaning at drive thru take aways ? they are pretty much no different to a virus testing station as far as opening up business's this seems like a perfect ready made solution no way would I visit a shop at the moment but I'd feel quite safe venturing out, staying in my car and being handed food thru a gap in the window come on, stop moaning for the sake of it |
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Post by davycrockett on May 10, 2020 7:56:27 GMT 1
Expect a huge tax increase on the petrol - to keep people out of their cars and pay for the debts built up in the last month or two. Not so sure the busses are going to need huge capacity though - those who have worked sucessfully from home will probably continue most days a week, it saves the bosses money on office space and heating. The biggest problem in rural Shropshire and Staffordshire is going to be getting the secondary school children in to school - school bus runs have been set up to use every available coach with every seat filled. Parents working from home can take them on a rota basis, sorted...... if only all the problems were that easy |
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Post by northwestman on May 10, 2020 8:24:16 GMT 1
Meanwhile, Thousands of coronavirus 'contact tracers' are only now being recruited by the Government - two weeks after the Health Secretary announced they would be hired. They'll be paid just 28p over the minimum wage.
And 25.6 million pairs of Tiger Eye goggles bought for the NHS are not fit for purpose, according to the British Standards Institute: 15.9 million of them have already been distributed, with hospitals now being told to withdraw the remaining 9.7 million from use.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2020 8:35:46 GMT 1
Another thing for me to moan at: Yesterday’s street parties. Many examples on tv of social distancing not being followed. Sharing drinks, the irony of mingling with each other in front of their houses which have Rainbows and slogans saying protect the nhs in their windows. but why are you moaning at drive thru take aways ? they are pretty much no different to a virus testing station as far as opening up business's this seems like a perfect ready made solution no way would I visit a shop at the moment but I'd feel quite safe venturing out, staying in my car and being handed food thru a gap in the window come on, stop moaning for the sake of it What about the people who work there? Can you social distance in a macdonalds kitchen? |
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Post by staffordshrew on May 10, 2020 8:36:07 GMT 1
Expect a huge tax increase on the petrol - to keep people out of their cars and pay for the debts built up in the last month or two. Not so sure the busses are going to need huge capacity though - those who have worked sucessfully from home will probably continue most days a week, it saves the bosses money on office space and heating. The biggest problem in rural Shropshire and Staffordshire is going to be getting the secondary school children in to school - school bus runs have been set up to use every available coach with every seat filled. Parents working from home can take them on a rota basis, sorted...... if only all the problems were that easy Not quite sorted, expect all the traffic and parking problems of a primary school, magnified about 6 times. |
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 10, 2020 8:37:32 GMT 1
Meanwhile, Thousands of coronavirus 'contact tracers' are only now being recruited by the Government - two weeks after the Health Secretary announced they would be hired. They'll be paid just 28p over the minimum wage. And 25.6 million pairs of Tiger Eye goggles bought for the NHS are not fit for purpose, according to the British Standards Institute: 15.9 million of them have already been distributed, with hospitals now being told to withdraw the remaining 9.7 million from use. all htrough this the procurment proces has been dismal |
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 10, 2020 8:42:46 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work.
if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe
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Post by staffordshrew on May 10, 2020 8:49:40 GMT 1
Meanwhile, Thousands of coronavirus 'contact tracers' are only now being recruited by the Government - two weeks after the Health Secretary announced they would be hired. They'll be paid just 28p over the minimum wage. And 25.6 million pairs of Tiger Eye goggles bought for the NHS are not fit for purpose, according to the British Standards Institute: 15.9 million of them have already been distributed, with hospitals now being told to withdraw the remaining 9.7 million from use. all htrough this the procurment proces has been dismal You start off with low rolling stock, you want to do your best (and save face), so you find some bulk ppe quickly, ignoring quality checks. Meanwhile, the Primark buyers, who know a thing or two about buying goods reasonably fit for purpose and checking quality of cheap foreign factory production are all furloughed. You are so busy trying to buy bulk ppe there is no one to even answer emails from British manufacturers wanting to see if they can help. |
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Post by stfcfan87 on May 10, 2020 8:50:55 GMT 1
I could have added a 7th point, which would be to conduct a forensic examination of Professor Ferguson's modelling by an independent panel of experts, the members of which are NOT appointed by the government. Not quite sure why the modelling is getting so much stick? It's a really hard thing to do when it's dealing with a new disease and will only be as good as the information put into the models. Modelling isn't policy either, it's up to the government to decide policies And blaming the modelling doesn't account for the lack of testing, or the prioritisation of who is tested or the lack of PPE, or the lack of focus on care homes |
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Post by SeanBroseley on May 10, 2020 8:51:11 GMT 1
Meanwhile, Thousands of coronavirus 'contact tracers' are only now being recruited by the Government - two weeks after the Health Secretary announced they would be hired. They'll be paid just 28p over the minimum wage. And 25.6 million pairs of Tiger Eye goggles bought for the NHS are not fit for purpose, according to the British Standards Institute: 15.9 million of them have already been distributed, with hospitals now being told to withdraw the remaining 9.7 million from use. The procurement distater is worse than the munitions production scndal under Asquith's government in WW1. |
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Post by SeanBroseley on May 10, 2020 8:53:18 GMT 1
Without a universal healthcare system that is free at the point of use the Americans probably thought that they had the excess death world championship 2020 completely sown up. But good old Blighty showed them. FT graphs link
And from tomorrow we will be able to start licking strangers again. That will really put pressure on the rest of the world. Let''s see what theyre made of. |
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Post by stfcfan87 on May 10, 2020 8:54:04 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work. if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe Well firstly it's the sun Secondly, just because they have lower death rates doesn't mean they've not been seriously ill Thirdly, they can still spread the disease around, even if they aren't the ones who suffer from it |
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Post by staffordshrew on May 10, 2020 9:25:27 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work. if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe Well firstly it's the sun Secondly, just because they have lower death rates doesn't mean they've not been seriously ill Thirdly, they can still spread the disease around, even if they aren't the ones who suffer from it It was late and I couldn't be bothered to do it, but I expect The Sun found it's info using the link that was flagged to us in a post on The Daily Briefing: ikey Not sure if this link from the NHS England website has been posted/discussed already, but the number of people aged under 40 (0 to 39) who have died in hospital in England from COVID19 without having pre existing medical conditions amazed me. www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/From the webpage open the spreadsheet called "COVID19 total announced deaths 9 May 2020" (if you are looking on a later date then 9 May 2020 will be replaced with today's date) and then click on the tab called "COVID19 all deaths by condition". The problem with the modelling was that we started off with Neil F's figure, someone who seems to have been over pesimistixc in the past, then it took a few days before the Oxford figures started conflicting with Neil F's Imperial College figures. So we started with a confused set of predictions. In exactly the same way as ppe, things were accepted without question. |
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Post by davycrockett on May 10, 2020 9:29:12 GMT 1
Parents working from home can take them on a rota basis, sorted...... if only all the problems were that easy Not quite sorted, expect all the traffic and parking problems of a primary school, magnified about 6 times. That’s mainly because parents choose a school too far from their home to walk. Sometimes unavoidable but usually through choice. Different subject but if I was in charge there’d be a charge for any vehicle with children in between 8.00 and 9.00 in the morning. My kids wanted to go to Wakemen even though we lived 200 yards from Priory. I let them choose but on the understanding they walked. I hardly ever took them perhaps 4/5 time across something like 10 years. My youngest used to get a lift sometimes with Nigel the milkman if it was raining cos he felt sorry for him. Most traffic is down to lazy kids or parents (most) |
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Post by davycrockett on May 10, 2020 9:30:27 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work. if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe Blimey I’m keeping out of the sun How can you issue teachers PPE and not the kids? They might not die from it easily but they can spread it easily. What do you say to the unlucky kids parents who do get it? |
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 10, 2020 9:53:52 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work. if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe Blimey I’m keeping out of the sun How can you issue teachers PPE and not the kids? They might not die from it easily but they can spread it easily. What do you say to the unlucky kids parents who do get it? i would not normally quote them but it had the info on the age group. if you follow that logic schools would never re -open . Denmark has re opemd its schools and the R number went up 0.2 wich is minimal. if we had a proper test , track and monitor from say 1 , we would know exactly what % of the population had caught covid-19. |
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Post by northwestman on May 10, 2020 9:57:33 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/100-days-later-how-did-britain-fail-so-badly-in-dealing-with-covid-19Interesting article. The key issue for me if we are to progress out of lockdown is this: "How Britain extricates itself from its coronavirus lockdown will be a delicate procedure, scientists agree. In general, they envisage an approach that would maintain restrictions until numbers of Covid-19 cases are low enough to allow the tracking and isolating of individual cases. However, at the current rate of infections, it is hard to see when that might occur. Last week, the number of new cases of Covid-19 that were being diagnosed every day hovered around the 5,000 mark. That is far too high to allow tracing of newly infected individuals. The tracking system would be overwhelmed in days. The country therefore faces a choice. It could endure even harsher lockdown rules – with no exercise permitted – or maintain the current system for months. Alternatively, it could ease the lockdown in the near future and risk facing a rapidly rising second wave of cases". I've noticed that the new Covid-19 cases have been holding up at around 5,000 a day for the last month or so despite the majority of the population being in lockdown since March 23rd. So where are these new cases coming from? I do realise that the increase in testing will inevitably result in new cases being identified, but it would be interesting to know how many of these come from the care homes. Although the homes' occupants are already in a state of self isolation, Covid-19 is still likely to spread through the buildings. Moreover, if a number of carers have recently been identified as having Covid-19, then they could be responsible for the virus still being significantly transmitted to the general population. Controlling the outbreaks in care homes and quarantining any carers who have tested positive would at least help to deal with the 'hot spots' of the virus.
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 10, 2020 9:59:23 GMT 1
out of the age group 1 to 40 the total deaths so far are 166 (from the sun) if that is acurate whilst not risk free this age group are very low risk of dying from this condition.then why are they not the first group to return to work. if the goverment wont schools open they need to issue the teachers with ppe Well firstly it's the sun Secondly, just because they have lower death rates doesn't mean they've not been seriously ill Thirdly, they can still spread the disease around, even if they aren't the ones who suffer from it i dont like the sun either but it had the figures with age related death. schools in denmark re- opened and the R rate went up 0.2 which is minimal some of them may have been very ill but they did not die , if some are contagious they will infect the age group who suffer the lowest moratality rate. |
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Post by zenfootball2 on May 10, 2020 10:02:05 GMT 1
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/10/100-days-later-how-did-britain-fail-so-badly-in-dealing-with-covid-19Interesting article. The key issue for me if we are to progress out of lockdown is this: "How Britain extricates itself from its coronavirus lockdown will be a delicate procedure, scientists agree. In general, they envisage an approach that would maintain restrictions until numbers of Covid-19 cases are low enough to allow the tracking and isolating of individual cases. However, at the current rate of infections, it is hard to see when that might occur. Last week, the number of new cases of Covid-19 that were being diagnosed every day hovered around the 5,000 mark. That is far too high to allow tracing of newly infected individuals. The tracking system would be overwhelmed in days. The country therefore faces a choice. It could endure even harsher lockdown rules – with no exercise permitted – or maintain the current system for months. Alternatively, it could ease the lockdown in the near future and risk facing a rapidly rising second wave of cases". I've noticed that the new Covid-19 cases have been holding up at around 5,000 a day for the last month or so despite the majority of the population being in lockdown since March 23rd. So where are these new cases coming from? I do realise that the increase in testing will inevitably result in new cases being identified, but it would be interesting to know how many of these come from the care homes. Although the homes' occupants are already in a state of self isolation, Covid-19 is still likely to spread through the buildings. Moreover, if a number of carers have recently been identified as having Covid-19, then they could be responsible for the virus still being significantly transmitted to the general population. Controlling the outbreaks in care homes and quarantining any carers who have tested positive would at least help to deal with the 'hot spots' of the virus. if we are to get the grip with things an efficient co ordianted test, track, monitor andi isolate must be in place and that will include putting out hot spots but with are past record of chaotic poorly organized responce i am not holding my breath. |
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Post by davycrockett on May 10, 2020 10:05:13 GMT 1
Blimey I’m keeping out of the sun How can you issue teachers PPE and not the kids? They might not die from it easily but they can spread it easily. What do you say to the unlucky kids parents who do get it? i would not normally quote them but it had the info on the age group. if you follow that logic schools would never re -open . Denmark has re opemd its schools and the R number went up 0.2 wich is minimal. if we had a proper test , track and monitor from say 1 , we would know exactly what % of the population had caught covid-19. With that argument why do teachers need PPE then? |
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