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Post by Valerioch on Jul 27, 2021 20:35:55 GMT 1
Read a very interesting article earlier, some snippets below
Perhaps that is why some lockdown extremists have reacted with dismay to the fact that Covid cases have fallen so sharply in England over the past week. The seven-day average of reported cases has decreased by a quarter since its peak on 18 July.
Those clinging to the bizarre hope that the fall will be temporary might want to avoid glancing northwards. Cases in Scotland have also been falling rapidly for nearly four weeks, while hospitalisations and deaths also appear to have peaked.
If you look at the global picture, England is not alone. For instance, India – where the Delta variant originated – experienced a rapid, sustained reduction in cases from early May. Cases have peaked and are now falling in other countries, such as the Netherlands, Malta, South Africa, Greece and Portugal.
Whatever the reasons for the recent fall in Covid cases in England, it is striking that it has happened without any additional restrictions. The BBC suggests that this is the first time infections have fallen without a lockdown, conveniently ignoring the evidence that infections were falling in England before each of the previous national lockdowns. And still there is little mention in most of the British media of the fact that infections fell for some months in many US states after they ended all restrictions.
Putting these media blind spots to one side, the English data make it impossible to sustain the position that lockdowns and restrictions are needed for cases to fall.
Let’s also not forget that, despite a very high level of cases in recent weeks – not far off the peak levels we had back in January – deaths rose much more slowly. Currently there is an average of just over 40 deaths per day in England. Given the lag between infections and deaths, this will increase over the next week or two before falling in line with the cases.
The modellers and lockdown enthusiasts were adamant that Freedom Day on 19 July would lead to huge increases in cases and deaths.
Who knows if this fall will be sustained. But if it is, there is going to be a lot of egg on a lot of faces.
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Post by Valerioch on Jul 27, 2021 21:07:30 GMT 1
Like him or loathe him, he’s bang on the money here
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Post by armchairfan on Jul 27, 2021 21:17:21 GMT 1
I do entirely agree that you have been " droning on" for some time now, but that does not necessarily mean that the sound of that droning imparts any great insights, merely a profound irritation for many of us, and imparts little of value. insightful. I am surprised that you can state with such certainty that Boris Johnson " doesn’t care" about the deaths of the over 80s, unless you know his mind; you are of course entitled to speculate that, by his actions, he feels that way, but , as you are perfectly aware, speculation is not knowledge at all. As to your comment that we need to get "the whole bloody world vaccinated in case something far worse emerges, that is a fanciful and thoroughly impractical notion, impossible to achieve, and to divrt time money and resources to an unachievable goal strikes me as a fool's errand at best, and a display of overwhelming hubris at worst. You are clearly not a fool, but comments of this sort do you no favours. So far the three major variants of concern have been the Kent variant, the South African variant and the Indian variant. The Kent or Alpha variant is reported to be mutating again, the South African or Beta variant is said to be substantially resistant to the Moderna vaccine, the Indian or Delta variant has spread to all corners of the planet and is responsible for 99% of UK infections and is also said to be twice as transmittable as the original virus and now we have the Brazilian or Gamma variant and the Peruvian or Lambda variants to keep an eye on. That is 5 major mutations in less that 18 months, how long before it gets it's act together and mixes the transmissibility of the Delta variant and the vaccine resistance of the Beta variant?
Who is advocating the diverting of money and resources? Not me. I am calling for the vaccines to be made open source, so that poorer or less developed countries can produce their own doses rather than wait for the western nations to finish their roll-outs and hand over the scr@ps to those nations. Smallpox was rife throughout the world and the world came together and managed to get that eradicated, but that wasn't mutating every five minutes and causing more headaches for the vaccine producers to cope with. FYI the pharmaceutical companies are doing very nicely at the moment, because every jab puts money in their accounts and they are screwing the poorer countries over big time, the same dose that costs $13 in the US is being sold to the Colombian government for $30. When a resistant strain springs up in one of these poorer countries the vaccine you can bet that the vaccine suppliers will take no responsibility for it.
I'm sure you're aware of the quotes, emails and texts from Johnson, so I'll just assume that you think they're all fake news.
Finally I am delighted that my droning on is causing you profound irritation, it makes me all the more determined to keep it up This or that variant "reported to be" mutating....this or that variant "said to be" more transmissible &c....more opinion disguised as fact? Anyway, if causing irritation to others gives meaning to your life, crack on....I for one can cope with irritation: a bit like the constant drone of a fly, with about as much importance. As for the rest, I am sure that in there somewhere there is something of value - the trouble is that it is lost in the background drone. In the meantime, it must be said that, to one degree or another, each of us is suffering from information overload.
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Post by GrizzlyShrew on Jul 27, 2021 21:23:11 GMT 1
Like him or loathe him, he’s bang on the money here "COULD BE"....... This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM 😲
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Post by Pilch on Jul 27, 2021 21:28:29 GMT 1
Like him or loathe him, he’s bang on the money here "COULD BE"....... This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM 😲 the guy with a broken leg and Covid was unlucky Maybe he was drunk after visiting 12 pubs without a mask on 😝
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Post by welshshrew on Jul 27, 2021 21:49:02 GMT 1
Like him or loathe him, he’s bang on the money here "COULD BE"....... This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM 😲 Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly.
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Post by martinshrew on Jul 27, 2021 22:06:57 GMT 1
"COULD BE"....... This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM 😲 Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly. I'd give you my thoughts if they were broken down by age, vaccination status and general health status.
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Post by staffordshrew on Jul 27, 2021 22:14:25 GMT 1
Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly. I'd give you my thoughts if they were broken down by age, vaccination status and general health status. But, it's Farage.... Surely no one is still taking anything he says seriously? It's Farage, for whatever idol you wish to believe ins, sake.
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Post by Valerioch on Jul 27, 2021 22:22:52 GMT 1
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Post by Pilch on Jul 27, 2021 23:21:02 GMT 1
IF
the cases continues to go down, my chart is telling me that deaths should peak in about 3 weeks 7 day average could be around 150 a day, hopefully below 100 will show the vaccine is working
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Post by GrizzlyShrew on Jul 27, 2021 23:25:41 GMT 1
"COULD BE"....... This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM 😲 Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly. EXCESS?? When compared to the total daily/weekly/monthly overall death rates (as most believers dont) it's actually fairly normal. Let's be honest Covid is far from being the biggest killer. Far from it.
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Post by Pilch on Jul 27, 2021 23:40:57 GMT 1
Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly. EXCESS?? When compared to the total daily/weekly/monthly overall death rates (as most believers dont) it's actually fairly normal. Let's be honest Covid is far from being the biggest killer. Far from it. how ignorant are you ? its the knock on effect that is the biggest problem how about when you are walking around waving you mask all day , take a loud haler and preach to those who haven't had the jab they are the ones letting us down at the moment far more than you are even
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Post by Valerioch on Jul 28, 2021 6:56:50 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2021 8:39:36 GMT 1
I just think we’re lucky to have someone of farages obvious statistical and scientific know how to help us through this crisis.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2021 9:25:53 GMT 1
IF the cases continues to go down, my chart is telling me that deaths should peak in about 3 weeks 7 day average could be around 150 a day, hopefully below 100 will show the vaccine is working The vaccine is working, look at the death to cases ratio now compared to previous waves. Someone recently said thank god for the vaccine and it's very true because without them, we would be in a worse position than last summer due to the delta variant. Due to the lag the number of deaths will continue to increase but they should be nowhere near the scale of January and hopefully will reduce in line with the case reduction we have seen over the past week.
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Post by welshshrew on Jul 28, 2021 9:38:33 GMT 1
Believe. Give me your take on the excess deaths stats Grizzly. EXCESS?? When compared to the total daily/weekly/monthly overall death rates (as most believers dont) it's actually fairly normal. Let's be honest Covid is far from being the biggest killer. Far from it. Believers? Jesus wept. Please go and read some excess death stats.
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Post by martinshrew on Jul 28, 2021 9:40:44 GMT 1
EXCESS?? When compared to the total daily/weekly/monthly overall death rates (as most believers dont) it's actually fairly normal. Let's be honest Covid is far from being the biggest killer. Far from it. Believers? Jesus wept. Please go and read some excess death stats. Can you post up a list of Covid deaths / Total deaths broken down on a daily basis for the last 30 days? We can then see a bit clearer.
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Post by northwestman on Jul 28, 2021 9:52:15 GMT 1
Gove made the bluntest comments of anyone in government on the issue, saying: “Ultimately, if you can be vaccinated and you refuse to, that is a selfish act. You’re putting other people’s health and lives at risk, you should get vaccinated.”
During a visit to a testing laboratory in Glasgow, he said: “If you deliberately refuse to get vaccinated and there are certain venues and certain events that require a certain level of safety, then ... those venues and those events will be barred to you.”
Despite warnings from sceptical backbenchers that vaccine passports would split the Conservative Party, Gove insisted that the government would “do what’s right for public health”, saying: “Covid certification in certain limited venues and for certain limited events is a way of making people safer and giving more of us more freedom”.
The Times.
I've been of the opinion for quite some time that Gove has been running this government, originally with help from Cummings.
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Post by Pilch on Jul 28, 2021 10:46:36 GMT 1
Mine will too hopefully as I explained
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Post by martinshrew on Jul 28, 2021 10:58:29 GMT 1
"There were 9,697 deaths in England and Wales registered in the week ending 16 July 2021 (Week 28); this was 55 fewer deaths than the previous week (Week 27) and 4.8% above the five-year average (447 more deaths). Of the deaths registered in Week 28 in England and Wales, 218 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, accounting for 2.2% of all deaths; this was an increase compared with Week 27 (183 deaths)." Source: www.ons.co.uk
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Post by sheltonsalopian on Jul 28, 2021 11:45:11 GMT 1
Obviously good news cases are dropping but I can't help but feel suspicious about the drop. The drop is at a similar rate in every region in the UK, like a synchronised, uniform drop. Almost like testing rates have slowed nationally causing the drop.
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Post by Pilch on Jul 28, 2021 11:55:30 GMT 1
IF the cases continues to go down, my chart is telling me that deaths should peak in about 3 weeks 7 day average could be around 150 a day, hopefully below 100 will show the vaccine is working The vaccine is working, look at the death to cases ratio now compared to previous waves. Someone recently said thank god for the vaccine and it's very true because without them, we would be in a worse position than last summer due to the delta variant. Due to the lag the number of deaths will continue to increase but they should be nowhere near the scale of January and hopefully will reduce in line with the case reduction we have seen over the past week. Exactly what I said
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Post by welshshrew on Jul 28, 2021 12:21:42 GMT 1
Believers? Jesus wept. Please go and read some excess death stats. Can you post up a list of Covid deaths / Total deaths broken down on a daily basis for the last 30 days? We can then see a bit clearer. Hi Martin, I’m not going to do that because that’s irrelevant to the points I am making to Grizzly. The point of Grizzly was as follows - “ This has been going on right through it, over stating the Covid statistics. AND STILL SOME FOLKS BELEIVE THEM ” Now. If you want to make that point you are going to need to take the excess death stats, which to my mind show a very clear and strong link between the reported COVID death levels and the level of excess death, and then make an argument that there is a very significant problem with that reporting. I don’t for a second think that’s an argument you would make but it’s one that Farage and Grizzly try to use without any evidence. Is that clear?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2021 12:24:36 GMT 1
Obviously good news cases are dropping but I can't help but feel suspicious about the drop. The drop is at a similar rate in every region in the UK, like a synchronised, uniform drop. Almost like testing rates have slowed nationally causing the drop. Testing is down but at 13% over the last 7 days compared to a 30% reduction in cases in the same period. Additionally, positivity of testing is down, the latest data being shared (22nd July) shows the 7 day PCR % positivity at 10.9% compared to 11.8 on 20th July There is a growing view that the euro's was a big factor in the spike and subsequent reduction in England & Scotland, not so much people attending games but the mixing indoors to watch the games, whether that was pubs or houses.
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Post by tdk on Jul 28, 2021 13:14:21 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2021 16:53:54 GMT 1
What's that old saying about the use of statistics?
I see some parts of our media are reporting cases rising for the past two days, whilst technically it's true, it's ignoring that daily figures are useless in isolation and it's the week on week trends which are far more important, the last two days have still seen significant reductions when compared to last week.
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Post by Pilch on Jul 29, 2021 17:40:28 GMT 1
Covid cases 16,000 lower than last Friday Where are the usually culprits with the daily updates I wonder…? not sure what point you are making the important one deaths up on last Friday out of curiosity what do you think cases will be next Friday ? hello, usually culprit here What has happened to your daily new cases updates ? do they only appear when the figures go down ?
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Post by Valerioch on Jul 29, 2021 19:27:54 GMT 1
not sure what point you are making the important one deaths up on last Friday out of curiosity what do you think cases will be next Friday ? hello, usually culprit here What has happened to your daily new cases updates ? do they only appear when the figures go down ? Suspicion of harassment here Pilch! Pot kettle and all that…But No just bored of going round in circles with the same old folk and achieving nothing as they are fixated on letting Covid rules their life 👍🏼 Cases down 37.1% last 7 days. I’ll take that. Hopefully it continues
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Post by Pilch on Jul 29, 2021 19:33:26 GMT 1
hello, usually culprit here What has happened to your daily new cases updates ? do they only appear when the figures go down ? Suspicion of harassment here Pilch! Pot kettle and all that…But No just bored of going round in circles with the same old folk and achieving nothing as they are fixated on letting Covid rules their life 👍🏼 Cases down 37.1% last 7 days. I’ll take that. Hopefully it continues harassment ? You called , I replied I think we have a bigger case for entrapment 😀
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Post by staffordshrew on Jul 29, 2021 19:38:21 GMT 1
hello, usually culprit here What has happened to your daily new cases updates ? do they only appear when the figures go down ? Suspicion of harassment here Pilch! Pot kettle and all that…But No just bored of going round in circles with the same old folk and achieving nothing as they are fixated on letting Covid rules their life 👍🏼 Cases down 37.1% last 7 days. I’ll take that. Hopefully it continues How could anyone read the RV post and suspect harassment?
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