|
Post by Pilch on Jul 25, 2021 18:16:06 GMT 1
out of curiosity , where did you get those stats from link ? cheers I've done my own unbiased stats if we take the rolling new cases from todays 7 day average (37300) and compare it to the average 7 day deaths exactly a month ago ( 17 ) its 1 in 275 deaths here's the list I did Oct 25th New Cases 7 days average 21588 Deaths 7 day average 178 Nov 25th 18060 466 1 in 46 deaths from Oct 25th Dec 25th 32609 523 1 in 35 deaths from Nov 25th Jan 25th 33614 1241 1 in 26 deaths from Dec 25th Feb 25th 8383 309 1 in 109 deaths from Jan 25th Mar 25th 5627 57 1 in 147 deaths from Feb 25th Apr 25th 2259 22 1 in 256 deaths from Mar 25th may 25th 2928 8 1 in 282 deaths from Apr 25th Jun 25th 17616 17 1 in 172 deaths from may 25th Jul 25th 37300 64 1 in 275 deaths from Jun 25th Aug 25th , if we are to equal of better the July rate we need to get to 19 deaths or fewer this weeks average was up to 64 deaths I'll try and update this in a week
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on Jul 25, 2021 20:05:40 GMT 1
It's not all bad news!
Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab risk losing their seats at the next election because of the chaos over foreign travel, a report backed by a former Tory party chairman warns.
The Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary hold seats in constituencies with the highest number of aviation jobs which have been threatened by the Government’s border closures and Covid travel restrictions.
Some 3,356 voters in Mr Johnson’s Uxbridge seat are directly employed in aviation, enough to slash his 7,210 majority to within a whisker of defeat if they switched to other parties. The 1,666 aviation jobs in Mr Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency could wipe out his slender 2,743 majority.
Daily Telegraph.
|
|
|
Post by GrizzlyShrew on Jul 25, 2021 21:34:31 GMT 1
out of curiosity , where did you get those stats from link ? Excellent news, but to be expected if I'm honest.
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 25, 2021 21:41:58 GMT 1
Excellent news, but to be expected if I'm honest. deaths 84 yesterday, 50% up on last week
|
|
|
Post by GrizzlyShrew on Jul 25, 2021 22:04:08 GMT 1
Excellent news, but to be expected if I'm honest. deaths 84 yesterday, 50% up on last week Can you quote total deaths from everything please, so we have a comparison please.
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 25, 2021 22:15:00 GMT 1
deaths 84 yesterday, 50% up on last week Can you quote total deaths from everything please, so we have a comparison please. can you quote new cases of everything else that are contagious and require isolation ?
|
|
|
Post by staffordshrew on Jul 25, 2021 23:14:28 GMT 1
[/quote] I've done my own unbiased stats if we take the rolling new cases from todays 7 day average (37300) and compare it to the average 7 day deaths exactly a month ago ( 17 ) its 1 in 275 deaths here's the list I did Oct 25th New Cases 7 days average 21588 Deaths 7 day average 178 Nov 25th 18060 466 1 in 46 deaths from Oct 25th Dec 25th 32609 523 1 in 35 deaths from Nov 25th Jan 25th 33614 1241 1 in 26 deaths from Dec 25th Feb 25th 8383 309 1 in 109 deaths from Jan 25th Mar 25th 5627 57 1 in 147 deaths from Feb 25th Apr 25th 2259 22 1 in 256 deaths from Mar 25th may 25th 2928 8 1 in 282 deaths from Apr 25th Jun 25th 17616 17 1 in 172 deaths from may 25th Jul 25th 37300 64 1 in 275 deaths from Jun 25th Aug 25th , if we are to equal of better the July rate we need to get to 19 deaths or fewer this weeks average was up to 64 deaths I'll try and update this in a week [/quote][/div]
You appear to be forgetting there is up to 28 days lag between being diagnosed with Covid, being hospitalised and, for some, dying.
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 26, 2021 10:20:40 GMT 1
I've done my own unbiased stats if we take the rolling new cases from todays 7 day average (37300) and compare it to the average 7 day deaths exactly a month ago ( 17 ) its 1 in 275 deaths here's the list I did Oct 25th New Cases 7 days average 21588 Deaths 7 day average 178 Nov 25th 18060 466 1 in 46 deaths from Oct 25th Dec 25th 32609 523 1 in 35 deaths from Nov 25th Jan 25th 33614 1241 1 in 26 deaths from Dec 25th Feb 25th 8383 309 1 in 109 deaths from Jan 25th Mar 25th 5627 57 1 in 147 deaths from Feb 25th Apr 25th 2259 22 1 in 256 deaths from Mar 25th may 25th 2928 8 1 in 282 deaths from Apr 25th Jun 25th 17616 17 1 in 172 deaths from may 25th Jul 25th 37300 64 1 in 275 deaths from Jun 25th Aug 25th , if we are to equal of better the July rate we need to get to 19 deaths or fewer this weeks average was up to 64 deaths I'll try and update this in a week [/quote][/div]
You appear to be forgetting there is up to 28 days lag between being diagnosed with Covid, being hospitalised and, for some, dying.[/quote] Try reading it again
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 11:35:19 GMT 1
Apparently Starmer has said this morning (on LBC) that vaccine passports alone are not sufficient so wants the passport and a negative test for entry to nightclubs, sporting events, gigs etc. If he doesn't back down on that then it will be interesting to see how many people stand by their threat to switch to the Lib Dems being the only party to say they will stand against vaccine passports.
I should stress that I haven't heard the interview, just going by comments on social media so don't know the context, his exact words etc.
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on Jul 26, 2021 11:43:11 GMT 1
"First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.... Martin Niemoller.
University students will have to be fully vaccinated to attend lectures or stay in halls of residence under plans being pushed by Boris Johnson.
The prime minister is said to have been “raging” about the relatively low vaccine uptake among young people and is determined to apply pressure.
During video meetings with colleagues while in isolation at Chequers last week, he suggested that students in higher and further education settings should face compulsory vaccination, subject to certain medical exemptions.
However, The Times has been told that the Department for Education has reservations about the legality and practicability of the plans given that universities are independent and offers to study are legally binding.
The government is in discussion with the Premier League about barring fans from attending matches from October unless they have had both.
The mandatory requirement is expected to extend to the autumn rugby internationals, major concerts and spectator events with more than 20,000 people.
The Times.
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on Jul 26, 2021 12:00:11 GMT 1
Apparently Starmer has said this morning (on LBC) that vaccine passports alone are not sufficient so wants the passport and a negative test for entry to nightclubs, sporting events, gigs etc. If he doesn't back down on that then it will be interesting to see how many people stand by their threat to switch to the Lib Dems being the only party to say they will stand against vaccine passports. I should stress that I haven't heard the interview, just going by comments on social media so don't know the context, his exact words etc. Just checked this out and it seems you are correct. He'd be backing vaccine certificates AND tests for large scale events. www.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/call-keir/sir-keir-vaccine-passports-call-keir-everyday-use/Starmer's basic strategy is to encourage the government to hit us harder and for longer with restrictions. He should be more gainfully employed in attacking the constant erosion of personal freedom by this government. We have no effective opposition.
|
|
|
Post by martinshrew on Jul 26, 2021 12:15:51 GMT 1
Apparently Starmer has said this morning (on LBC) that vaccine passports alone are not sufficient so wants the passport and a negative test for entry to nightclubs, sporting events, gigs etc. If he doesn't back down on that then it will be interesting to see how many people stand by their threat to switch to the Lib Dems being the only party to say they will stand against vaccine passports. I should stress that I haven't heard the interview, just going by comments on social media so don't know the context, his exact words etc. Just checked this out and it seems you are correct. He'd be backing vaccine certificates AND tests for large scale events. www.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/call-keir/sir-keir-vaccine-passports-call-keir-everyday-use/Starmer's basic strategy is to encourage the government to hit us harder and for longer with restrictions. He should be more gainfully employed in attacking the constant erosion of personal freedom by this government. We have no effective opposition. That's him and Labour finished, the Lib Dems will mop up the flip floppers.
|
|
|
Post by northwestman on Jul 26, 2021 15:53:56 GMT 1
Comment from a Daily Telegraph reader. I agree with every word.
'Domestic vaccine passports are an enormous issue for British society and, if imposed, will represent a seismic shift in the relationship between State and Citizen, including the loss of the principle of free and informed consent and a presumption that the Government should dictate what medical treatments you have if you want to be able to live a normal life. On this major issue of principle, Starmer said he was "pragmatic" - still waiting to assess which way You Gov tells him will win most support presumably.
The British Public deserve better from the leader of the Opposition than this principle-free, bandwagon jumping chancer. At the moment, we might as well have a Rubber Stamp sitting opposite Johnson'.
|
|
|
Post by martinshrew on Jul 26, 2021 16:19:05 GMT 1
UK records 24,950 cases
This is compared to 46,792 new infections last Monday.
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 26, 2021 16:28:03 GMT 1
UK records 24,950 cases This is compared to 46,792 new infections last Monday. Superb trend - long may it continue
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 26, 2021 16:30:40 GMT 1
|
|
|
Post by Feedo Gnasher on Jul 26, 2021 16:37:35 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts…
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 16:56:08 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… I've been the first to criticise many of the people involved in the modelling (and I still think serious questions need to be asked of them) but I don't think anyone would have predicted what has happened over the last few days, even some of the most positive/optimistic people I follow are struggling to explain it. What it does show is how difficult decision making in politics can be, imagine Boris delaying restrictions being lifted and then seeing cases reducing like this. What is comical (but sadly predictable) is the amount of people I am seeing on social media stating "but it's because we don't count reinfections", which shows the power the media have.
|
|
|
Post by servernaside on Jul 26, 2021 17:02:49 GMT 1
Apparently Starmer has said this morning (on LBC) that vaccine passports alone are not sufficient so wants the passport and a negative test for entry to nightclubs, sporting events, gigs etc. If he doesn't back down on that then it will be interesting to see how many people stand by their threat to switch to the Lib Dems being the only party to say they will stand against vaccine passports. I should stress that I haven't heard the interview, just going by comments on social media so don't know the context, his exact words etc. Just checked this out and it seems you are correct. He'd be backing vaccine certificates AND tests for large scale events. www.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-shows/call-keir/sir-keir-vaccine-passports-call-keir-everyday-use/Starmer's basic strategy is to encourage the government to hit us harder and for longer with restrictions. He should be more gainfully employed in attacking the constant erosion of personal freedom by this government. We have no effective opposition. Typical Labour controlling policies. If they hadn't lost the GE back in 1951 we would probably have had food rationing indefinitely. They never learn.
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 26, 2021 17:09:03 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… who was it on here and what thread did someone predict cases would go down once the schools were on holiday, I know I dissed it but I wanted to read it again as he may have been correct
|
|
|
Post by davycrockett on Jul 26, 2021 17:10:34 GMT 1
deaths 84 yesterday, 50% up on last week Can you quote total deaths from everything please, so we have a comparison please. That's like you quoting total posative test for every illness not just covid... Irrelevant if you compare increases or reductions in covid deaths the same as posative tests you get the trend and on deaths its up 👍
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 26, 2021 17:24:09 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… Agreed. Anyone who didn’t think to model the effects of school holidays, or a euros “bounce”, or peak summer weather, deserves no place having such influence on our way of living And if they did include the above, all it does is show the deficiencies again in the modelling that have been evident many times before
|
|
|
Post by Valerioch on Jul 26, 2021 17:25:52 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… I've been the first to criticise many of the people involved in the modelling (and I still think serious questions need to be asked of them) but I don't think anyone would have predicted what has happened over the last few days, even some of the most positive/optimistic people I follow are struggling to explain it. What it does show is how difficult decision making in politics can be, imagine Boris delaying restrictions being lifted and then seeing cases reducing like this. What is comical (but sadly predictable) is the amount of people I am seeing on social media stating "but it's because we don't count reinfections", which shows the power the media have. Peston is trying to backtrack like anything as we speak - absolute tool has done the damage now, but got what he wanted - people talking about him
|
|
|
Post by armchairfan on Jul 26, 2021 17:35:54 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… Agreed. Anyone who didn’t think to model the effects of school holidays, or a euros “bounce”, or peak summer weather, deserves no place having such influence on our way of living And if they did include the above, all it does is show the deficiencies again in the modelling that have been evident many times before Indeed so, and I offer again, for everyone's erudition, one of my favourite aphorisms - "an expert can be defines as one who knows more and more about less and less" Much of the criticism of this government, some of it justified, is the apparent presupposition that it either has, or can at some time produce, answers and solutions which will satisfy every criteria....such a belief is foolhardy, and would necessitate another presupposition - that we have the answer to everything ....and no, it's not 42....
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 18:30:02 GMT 1
The government need to find new experts… who was it on here and what thread did someone predict cases would go down once the schools were on holiday, I know I dissed it but I wanted to read it again as he may have been correct Might not have been my post you are referring to but I posted this a few weeks ago (on this thread), not sure you can actually link to posts?? But anyway, schools breaking up have to be a factor but I don't think you can put it just down to that. " I saw an interesting theory on twitter tonight, we know that cases are high amongst younger people/school children, will we see cases plummet with the school holidays, partly due to reduced mixing but more so because of fact the number of tests will drop significantly? Thousands of pupils, students, teachers & staff won't be tested regularly like they currently are. Could be nonsense but I can understand the logic. Guess it comes down to what percentage of cases are coming from people in education, if its small then you can ignore this!!"
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 26, 2021 18:49:02 GMT 1
who was it on here and what thread did someone predict cases would go down once the schools were on holiday, I know I dissed it but I wanted to read it again as he may have been correct Might not have been my post you are referring to but I posted this a few weeks ago (on this thread), not sure you can actually link to posts?? But anyway, schools breaking up have to be a factor but I don't think you can put it just down to that. " I saw an interesting theory on twitter tonight, we know that cases are high amongst younger people/school children, will we see cases plummet with the school holidays, partly due to reduced mixing but more so because of fact the number of tests will drop significantly? Thousands of pupils, students, teachers & staff won't be tested regularly like they currently are. Could be nonsense but I can understand the logic. Guess it comes down to what percentage of cases are coming from people in education, if its small then you can ignore this!!" I dont really see why we are celebrating so many new cases and making out they ar low, we were down to 3 figures several times this year the time to celebrate is a month later when hospitalisation and deaths are falling at the moment its like celebrating winning a penalty, it still has to be scored yet
|
|
|
Post by GrizzlyShrew on Jul 26, 2021 19:14:02 GMT 1
There are a few on here who are only 'happy' when the case numbers are rising.
Good news isnt Good news for them.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 19:44:39 GMT 1
I dont really see why we are celebrating so many new cases and making out they ar low, we were down to 3 figures several times this year the time to celebrate is a month later when hospitalisation and deaths are falling at the moment its like celebrating winning a penalty, it still has to be scored yet Ok, for starters we know that a reduction in cases will see a reduction in hospitalisations and deaths, in the same way we know that a an increase in cases will see an increase in them (as you have regularly pointed out). So yes I do think a big reduction in cases is a something to be happy about, whatever the reasons it. This is particularly positive news considering the last few weeks we have been hearing doomsday experts about cases continuing to rise to ridiculous levels. No it's not over and no we shouldn't pretend things are perfect as cases are coming down from a high level, but the key thing is they are coming down.
|
|
|
Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Jul 26, 2021 19:46:51 GMT 1
I don't think the number of cases is the important stat, although it could be if it leads to more virus mutations.
The optimistic stat for me is the the number of hospitalisations is dropping.
I should clarify that I only look at stats for my area where the number of cases is still high.
|
|
|
Post by Pilch on Jul 26, 2021 19:58:41 GMT 1
There are a few on here who are only 'happy' when the case numbers are rising. Good news isnt Good news for them. give it a rest, you are so wrong I for one have a dad who came within an inch of dying this year and still has serious after effects, all as a knock on effect from covid and I myself was one of the very few in the uk asked to shield, I did 60 hours last week in dangerous conditions due to the knock on effect of covid at work you think I'm enjoying this ? get real I'd love to wander around every pub in Yorkshire waving my facemask in the faces of others but I take enough risks on a daily basis as it is without the need to act like Donald trump
|
|