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Post by mattmw on Aug 28, 2019 20:54:26 GMT 1
I just cannot understand this mad unjustified rush towards Brexit which flies in the face of public opinion. A recent poll in the Brexit supporting Murdoch press (Times/Sunday Times). Given the choice no deal or remain, 77% opted for Remain. I think long term the rush to get brexit “done” will be counter productive, and could well lead to the U.K. rejoining the EU in the not to distant future - probably under worse terms than we have now Assuming the studies are correct and no deal brexit brings a significant economic downturn (and the panic Johnson move today suggests he believes the reports) then over the next few years the population in general are not going to look too kindly on the current crop of politicians Conservative and Labour who oversaw brexit and the way it was done. It’s not hard to see a centralist pro EU party standing in the mid 2020’s under a pledge of rejoining the EU. With a significant number of brexit voters likely to no longer be with us and younger pro EU voters then able to vote it’s not a massive step to see the U.K. requesting to join the EU again by 2025. Whether the EU would want us is another matter
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Post by mattmw on Aug 28, 2019 20:57:58 GMT 1
How smug will you feel if Corbyn, or someone else you oppose, pulls this trick in future? Because you won’t have any grounds for complaint. Sacrificing parliamentary democracy for the sake of forcing brexit through seems a dangerously high price to pay, even before we get to the direct costs and losses arising from brexit. If brexit is truly “the will of the people”, why does it require such dishonesty and underhand trickery to make it happen? Because the people elected to carry out the result of the referendum have stabbed the public in the back .... over 400 of them are stauch remainers and will do anything to stop the process... there are hundreds that are ignoring the result of the constituency... (on both side) this is not a tory /labour thing... its leave or remain.... No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit
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Post by salop27 on Aug 28, 2019 20:58:26 GMT 1
The rush to get brexit done is over three years now!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 21:06:14 GMT 1
Johnson is playing a dangerous game. Yes, Parliament is usually prorogued, but only for a few days, not several weeks.
It's wrong and anybody with an ounce of common decency and a real understanding of how our representative parliamentary democracy works knows this.
He's also stitched up QEII like a kipper. Nice bloke.
And Ven's point about Corbyn doing this if he was PM stands and the utter hypocrisy from some people is astounding.
The irony is of course that Corbyn is the arch Socialist that doesn't believe in our RPD.....
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 21:07:31 GMT 1
I just cannot understand this mad unjustified rush towards Brexit which flies in the face of public opinion. A recent poll in the Brexit supporting Murdoch press (Times/Sunday Times). Given the choice no deal or remain, 77% opted for Remain. I can go to certain areas and do polls and get a result that i want.... i can go to scotland and get an 70% remain... or Sunderland and get an 70% leave. But the one that counts is that one that was open to all eligible voters in 2016... and that is what some of you seem to be so thick to realise.... Thanks for that but it always appears to me that Brexiters are always happy to call people thick when faced with experts or irrefutable analysis which counter their views which leads me to believe.........
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Post by Drew on Aug 28, 2019 21:16:06 GMT 1
Because the people elected to carry out the result of the referendum have stabbed the public in the back .... over 400 of them are stauch remainers and will do anything to stop the process... there are hundreds that are ignoring the result of the constituency... (on both side) this is not a tory /labour thing... its leave or remain.... No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit But apparently there is a mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister. Comedy. There is a mandate for leaving the EU which is exactly what is happening. The momentum is unstoppable. Deal with it.
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Post by mattmw on Aug 28, 2019 21:49:53 GMT 1
No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit But apparently there is a mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister. Comedy. There is a mandate for leaving the EU which is exactly what is happening. The momentum is unstoppable. Deal with it. Where do you get the mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister from? It’s been put forward as an emergency measure but not seen a single suggestion there is a mandate for it from the public I’ve no problem with leaving the EU and agree that there is a mandate for that based on the referendum, subsequent votes in Parliament and the last election. What there isn’t any evidence for is a public mandate for a no deal brexit. In my day job I’ve worked in and around government circles for 20 years now, including working under Labour and Conservative governments and the coalition governments, and implemented policies of all political parties Based on risk assessments, policy papers and research I see through my job I can only conclude a no deal brexit will have very significant economic impacts on the U.K., and particularly here in Shropshire. The worst affected will be the 20% lowest earners. It’s quite possible a no deal brexit could lead to significant issues with health and medical provision in Shropshire - which put bluntly could see people die As a civil servant I’m generally against people dying needlessly so if it’s all the same with you I won’t just “deal with” no deal brexit but will continue to advise our politicians of the dangerous path they are undertaking
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Post by salop27 on Aug 28, 2019 21:54:20 GMT 1
I am really in despair about the way this country is going. The Country is going to hell in a handcart. Personally I'm looking forward, hopefully, to the Scots getting their independence so I can go and live up there. Fifteen Welsh councils are now backing an independent Wales. If you can put up with us little englanders for a bit longer you could move over the border and probably commute😉
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Post by neilsalop on Aug 28, 2019 22:01:38 GMT 1
No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit But apparently there is a mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister. Comedy. There is a mandate for leaving the EU which is exactly what is happening. The momentum is unstoppable. Deal with it. Three years ago there was a small (in percentage terms) mandate, that is a fact that even an arch remainer like myself cannot argue with. Unfortunately Mrs. May decided that she didn't have a strong enough majority in parliament and with Labour languishing on about 28% in the polls she called a vanity election. If she hadn't she would have easily got her deal through parliament and Brexit would already have happened, with a deal.
Would I be happy to have left? No, of course I wouldn't, but I would have grudgingly accepted it, waited for things to wrong and bided my time until the next GE to get the Tories out. Would the vast majority of leavers have been at least reasonably content with leaving with a deal, even Mays? Yes, I think they would have.
I really can't see a single way that a no-deal Brexit is going to give people like yourself, JT and salop27 a better life. You might get nice blue pasports, you might possibly give our democratically elected parliament the power to bin off VAT (that was a major reason for leaving a few pages back), not that that is likely in any realistic future, you might get fewer eastern Europeans clogging up Bishops Castle High St., you might even be able to get your kids into your prefered junior school or get a Drs. appointment within a fortnight if all the foreigners bugger off, but I very much doubt it will affect your day to day lives.
The downsides, however minimal you seem to think they will be, have the potential to damage this country for generations to come. The further privatisation of the NHS, the continued fracking of our countryside, our increased dependence on fossil fuels, the loss of vast swathes of our farming industy (more than 40% of British lamb is exported, with over 90% of those exports going to EU countries), the almost inevitable IndyRef2 in Scotland that will split the union and possibly lead to the UK consiting of England, Wales and the Isle of Wight.
Still waiting for one good reason for anyone to want a no-deal.
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Post by martinshrew on Aug 28, 2019 22:14:38 GMT 1
But apparently there is a mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister. Comedy. There is a mandate for leaving the EU which is exactly what is happening. The momentum is unstoppable. Deal with it. Three years ago there was a small (in percentage terms) mandate, that is a fact that even an arch remainer like myself cannot argue with. Unfortunately Mrs. May decided that she didn't have a strong enough majority in parliament and with Labour languishing on about 28% in the polls she called a vanity election. If she hadn't she would have easily got her deal through parliament and Brexit would already have happened, with a deal.
Would I be happy to have left? No, of course I wouldn't, but I would have grudgingly accepted it, waited for things to wrong and bided my time until the next GE to get the Tories out. Would the vast majority of leavers have been at least reasonably content with leaving with a deal, even Mays? Yes, I think they would have.
I really can't see a single way that a no-deal Brexit is going to give people like yourself, JT and salop27 a better life. You might get nice blue pasports, you might possibly give our democratically elected parliament the power to bin off VAT (that was a major reason for leaving a few pages back), not that that is likely in any realistic future, you might get fewer eastern Europeans clogging up Bishops Castle High St., you might even be able to get your kids into your prefered junior school or get a Drs. appointment within a fortnight if all the foreigners bugger off, but I very much doubt it will affect your day to day lives.
The downsides, however minimal you seem to think they will be, have the potential to damage this country for generations to come. The further privatisation of the NHS, the continued fracking of our countryside, our increased dependence on fossil fuels, the loss of vast swathes of our farming industy (more than 40% of British lamb is exported, with over 90% of those exports going to EU countries), the almost inevitable IndyRef2 in Scotland that will split the union and possibly lead to the UK consiting of England, Wales and the Isle of Wight.
Still waiting for one good reason for anyone to want a no-deal.
And Europe suddenly won't want lamb? Us Brits suddenly won't want German cars? Trade deals will pop up immediately, and will likely be tariff free or a token 0.01% so as Europe can make a point. The EU is a declining economy. There is a big wide world out there.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 22:15:24 GMT 1
The democratically elected Queen!!! being forced to abide by the wishes of the democratically elected Prime Minister (well, an infinitesimal percentage of the electorate...does that count). NOW that's comedy gold
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 22:25:34 GMT 1
Three years ago there was a small (in percentage terms) mandate, that is a fact that even an arch remainer like myself cannot argue with. Unfortunately Mrs. May decided that she didn't have a strong enough majority in parliament and with Labour languishing on about 28% in the polls she called a vanity election. If she hadn't she would have easily got her deal through parliament and Brexit would already have happened, with a deal.
Would I be happy to have left? No, of course I wouldn't, but I would have grudgingly accepted it, waited for things to wrong and bided my time until the next GE to get the Tories out. Would the vast majority of leavers have been at least reasonably content with leaving with a deal, even Mays? Yes, I think they would have.
I really can't see a single way that a no-deal Brexit is going to give people like yourself, JT and salop27 a better life. You might get nice blue pasports, you might possibly give our democratically elected parliament the power to bin off VAT (that was a major reason for leaving a few pages back), not that that is likely in any realistic future, you might get fewer eastern Europeans clogging up Bishops Castle High St., you might even be able to get your kids into your prefered junior school or get a Drs. appointment within a fortnight if all the foreigners bugger off, but I very much doubt it will affect your day to day lives.
The downsides, however minimal you seem to think they will be, have the potential to damage this country for generations to come. The further privatisation of the NHS, the continued fracking of our countryside, our increased dependence on fossil fuels, the loss of vast swathes of our farming industy (more than 40% of British lamb is exported, with over 90% of those exports going to EU countries), the almost inevitable IndyRef2 in Scotland that will split the union and possibly lead to the UK consiting of England, Wales and the Isle of Wight.
Still waiting for one good reason for anyone to want a no-deal.
And Europe suddenly won't want lamb? Us Brits suddenly won't want German cars? Trade deals will pop up immediately, and will likely be tariff free or a token 0.01% so as Europe can make a point. The EU is a declining economy. There is a big wide world out there. Of course they will want our lamb and we will want their cars but on nowhere near such advantageous terms as now. Don't expect any great trade deals with Trump's America first strategy. Every deal that the EU has made with other countries have taken years in the making. We are not going to get better from a weaker bargaining position. I would advise you to look up what WTO means, first, though.
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Post by mattmw on Aug 28, 2019 22:53:55 GMT 1
Three years ago there was a small (in percentage terms) mandate, that is a fact that even an arch remainer like myself cannot argue with. Unfortunately Mrs. May decided that she didn't have a strong enough majority in parliament and with Labour languishing on about 28% in the polls she called a vanity election. If she hadn't she would have easily got her deal through parliament and Brexit would already have happened, with a deal.
Would I be happy to have left? No, of course I wouldn't, but I would have grudgingly accepted it, waited for things to wrong and bided my time until the next GE to get the Tories out. Would the vast majority of leavers have been at least reasonably content with leaving with a deal, even Mays? Yes, I think they would have.
I really can't see a single way that a no-deal Brexit is going to give people like yourself, JT and salop27 a better life. You might get nice blue pasports, you might possibly give our democratically elected parliament the power to bin off VAT (that was a major reason for leaving a few pages back), not that that is likely in any realistic future, you might get fewer eastern Europeans clogging up Bishops Castle High St., you might even be able to get your kids into your prefered junior school or get a Drs. appointment within a fortnight if all the foreigners bugger off, but I very much doubt it will affect your day to day lives.
The downsides, however minimal you seem to think they will be, have the potential to damage this country for generations to come. The further privatisation of the NHS, the continued fracking of our countryside, our increased dependence on fossil fuels, the loss of vast swathes of our farming industy (more than 40% of British lamb is exported, with over 90% of those exports going to EU countries), the almost inevitable IndyRef2 in Scotland that will split the union and possibly lead to the UK consiting of England, Wales and the Isle of Wight.
Still waiting for one good reason for anyone to want a no-deal.
And Europe suddenly won't want lamb? Us Brits suddenly won't want German cars? Trade deals will pop up immediately, and will likely be tariff free or a token 0.01% so as Europe can make a point. The EU is a declining economy. There is a big wide world out there. Could you provide an example where the EU has previously agreed a trade deal which is Tariff free and has been negotiated in less than three years (or popped up - which ever is sooner) Or alternatively a trade deal of a similar free trade basis agreed by one of the top 20 GDP countries outside the EU and a country outside their own trading block?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 23:04:05 GMT 1
And Europe suddenly won't want lamb? Us Brits suddenly won't want German cars? Trade deals will pop up immediately, and will likely be tariff free or a token 0.01% so as Europe can make a point. The EU is a declining economy. There is a big wide world out there. Could you provide an example where the EU has previously agreed a trade deal which is Tariff free and has been negotiated in less than three years (or popped up - which ever is sooner) Or alternatively a trade deal of a similar free trade basis agreed by one of the top 20 GDP countries outside the EU and a country outside their own trading block? So because its never happened... does that make it impossible to happen... We are in a unique situation and be as defeatest as you want. we are a strong abd proud nation. be leaders not followers
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2019 23:25:47 GMT 1
Could you provide an example where the EU has previously agreed a trade deal which is Tariff free and has been negotiated in less than three years (or popped up - which ever is sooner) Or alternatively a trade deal of a similar free trade basis agreed by one of the top 20 GDP countries outside the EU and a country outside their own trading block? So because its never happened... does that make it impossible to happen... We are in a unique situation and be as defeatest as you want. we are a strong abd proud nation. be leaders not followers Exactly, be leaders not followers and our best chance of doing that is within the EU, rather than being outside as a small fish in a big sea and if you think we can be leaders in that situation you are seriously disillusioned. Have you ever asked yourself why Putin and Trump are in favour of Brexit.
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Post by timgallon on Aug 28, 2019 23:28:03 GMT 1
But apparently there is a mandate for Ken Clarke as prime minister. Comedy. There is a mandate for leaving the EU which is exactly what is happening. The momentum is unstoppable. Deal with it. Not nearly as comedy at Caroline Lucas of the Watermelon Party and her recent proposal for 10 white female politicians to form a cabinet of national unity to stop a no-deal Brexit (with special guest Dominic Grieve). I mean that's really democratic (and progressive not let us forget of course!).
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Post by indalo on Aug 28, 2019 23:50:25 GMT 1
I am really in despair about the way this country is going. The Country is going to hell in a handcart. Personally I'm looking forward, hopefully, to the Scots getting their independence so I can go and live up there. Hi Tvor , just been reading your post whilst finishing off a bottle of Morellino di Scansano Riserva 2013 ( and very nice it was too ). Your plan does seem to have legs but would not really work for me ( too bloody cold up there for me at my age). I'm fed up with all this sh*t too and your post did get me thinking about what I could do myself . I suppose I could check on my distant Italian heritage on my Mother's side and see whether I might be able to claim Italian citizenship . If successful , I could then see whether they would let me have one of those dilapidated cottages in that lovely little village in Sicily ( the ones you can buy for €1 so long as you are prepared to spend €20/30k to do them up). Only problem with it is that , with the level of beaurocracy in Italy , the paperwork would probably not come through until about 10 years after I've popped my clogs . Who knows , however, I might just be able to get the applications waved through if my research reveals that I have the right connections 😉 . Anyway ,got to go now and get on with my online application to join Ancestry 😀
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Post by mattmw on Aug 29, 2019 7:17:08 GMT 1
Could you provide an example where the EU has previously agreed a trade deal which is Tariff free and has been negotiated in less than three years (or popped up - which ever is sooner) Or alternatively a trade deal of a similar free trade basis agreed by one of the top 20 GDP countries outside the EU and a country outside their own trading block? So because its never happened... does that make it impossible to happen... We are in a unique situation and be as defeatest as you want. we are a strong abd proud nation. be leaders not followers So I’ll take that as a no then?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2019 8:48:56 GMT 1
Exactly, be leaders not followers and our best chance of doing that is within the EU, rather than being outside as a small fish in a big sea and if you think we can be leaders in that situation you are seriously disillusioned. Have you ever asked yourself why Putin and Trump are in favour of Brexit. That was tried in 2014, when Cameroon went to the EU and said it needed to reform, was given a short shrift and is the reason we are where we are today.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Aug 29, 2019 8:59:13 GMT 1
There is already a legal challenge in the works. Thousands of protesters on the streets in major city centres last night. Vote of no confidence likely.
Regardless of your view on brexit, doesn't this whole thing just wreak of the kind of string, stable government we never would have got under Ed Miliband?
For me personally I've long since ceased giving a toss about brexit itself. The real story here is the absolute failure of our ruling party to govern in anything approaching a competent way and that alone gives me cause to think brexit will be a disaster.
Surely even the leave voters can see that, right? This is an absolute, colissal balls up. By all means let's brexit but for ****'s sake let's elect a vaguely competent government first, not this combination of crooks, chancers and morons.
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Post by venceremos on Aug 29, 2019 9:31:34 GMT 1
I just cannot understand this mad unjustified rush towards Brexit which flies in the face of public opinion. A recent poll in the Brexit supporting Murdoch press (Times/Sunday Times). Given the choice no deal or remain, 77% opted for Remain. I can go to certain areas and do polls and get a result that i want.... i can go to scotland and get an 70% remain... or Sunderland and get an 70% leave. But the one that counts is that one that was open to all eligible voters in 2016... and that is what some of you seem to be so thick to realise.... That’s not how polls work. They’re not carried out to get any particular result. The sample is drawn as scientifically as possible so as to include a wide cross-section of the whole electorate. Of course they’re not likely to be 100% accurate but you can be certain that, if a respected poll comes up with 77%, the true answer isn’t going to be below 50%! But, hey, we’ve been told we’re “thick” remainers, so what do we know!?
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Post by venceremos on Aug 29, 2019 9:36:55 GMT 1
Exactly, be leaders not followers and our best chance of doing that is within the EU, rather than being outside as a small fish in a big sea and if you think we can be leaders in that situation you are seriously disillusioned. Have you ever asked yourself why Putin and Trump are in favour of Brexit. That was tried in 2014, when Cameroon went to the EU and said it needed to reform, was given a short shrift and is the reason we are where we are today. Bit odd that we in the UK got upset about Cameroon. Turkey, yes, but nobody made up stories in the referendum about Cameroon joining.
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Post by venceremos on Aug 29, 2019 9:40:33 GMT 1
How smug will you feel if Corbyn, or someone else you oppose, pulls this trick in future? Because you won’t have any grounds for complaint. Sacrificing parliamentary democracy for the sake of forcing brexit through seems a dangerously high price to pay, even before we get to the direct costs and losses arising from brexit. If brexit is truly “the will of the people”, why does it require such dishonesty and underhand trickery to make it happen? Because the people elected to carry out the result of the referendum have stabbed the public in the back .... over 400 of them are stauch remainers and will do anything to stop the process... there are hundreds that are ignoring the result of the constituency... (on both side) this is not a tory /labour thing... its leave or remain.... If there are 400 staunch remainers in the Commons, they were put there by their constituents in 2017. You’ve said that remainers are thick, are you also saying these people didn’t know what they were voting for in 2017? Such irony.
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Post by salop27 on Aug 29, 2019 10:28:54 GMT 1
Bit odd that we in the UK got upset about Cameroon. Turkey, yes, but nobody made up stories in the referendum about Cameroon joining. Turkey has received 4.5 billion euros from the EU,from 2014 upto 2020, for pre accession support. That very much suggests Turkey will still join the EU at some point. Talks have stalled in recent years but around the referendum time it was entirely plausible Turkey would be joining.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Aug 29, 2019 10:36:02 GMT 1
Because the people elected to carry out the result of the referendum have stabbed the public in the back .... over 400 of them are stauch remainers and will do anything to stop the process... there are hundreds that are ignoring the result of the constituency... (on both side) this is not a tory /labour thing... its leave or remain.... No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit Just out of interest, do you believe there is a mandate for a second referendum?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2019 10:57:10 GMT 1
Second referendum ? Perhaps not but would another general election be acceptable . Seems to me that this is becoming more and more likely . Whatever , whilst all this is going on what do you think David Cameron is doing . Just a thought !
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Post by mattmw on Aug 29, 2019 11:22:40 GMT 1
No party stood at the last election promising a no deal Brexit in their manifesto. Not even UKIP. There is no mandate for a no deal brexit Just out of interest, do you believe there is a mandate for a second referendum? Personally no I don’t think there should be a second referendum. I think the process for brexit should now be carried out by Parliament. Personally I’d favour the cross party working group approach Rory Stewart suggested in his leadership bid. Get a brexit deal that can be agreed across Parliament and then take that back to the EU to negotiate with. I think it would give us a stronger argument for a deal on our terms if it had cross party and parliamentary approval. Politically I think there may well be a further referendum though as it could provide politicians with a way of batting the issue back to the population and letting them make the decision. I think that would be a backwards step though and probably not advance the process very much unless the referendum guaranteed the result was legislated on. Any more advisory referendums should be avoided
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Post by frankwellshrews on Aug 29, 2019 11:37:05 GMT 1
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Post by venceremos on Aug 29, 2019 11:47:22 GMT 1
Bit odd that we in the UK got upset about Cameroon. Turkey, yes, but nobody made up stories in the referendum about Cameroon joining. Turkey has received 4.5 billion euros from the EU,from 2014 upto 2020, for pre accession support. That very much suggests Turkey will still join the EU at some point. Talks have stalled in recent years but around the referendum time it was entirely plausible Turkey would be joining. About as close to being "entirely plausible" as it was that the NHS would receive an extra £350m a week. Or that an EU trade agreement would be "the easiest deal in history". Perhaps Turkey will join at some point. There's nothing wrong with that in principle. However, the fact is that it was, and is, a very long way from meeting the criteria required for it to be eligible to join and that's unlikely to change much for the foreseeable future. It was a deliberate deception to play on people's fears and prejudices to encourage a leave vote - and another reason why I will never "respect the result".
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2019 12:06:06 GMT 1
There is already a legal challenge in the works. Thousands of protesters on the streets in major city centres last night. Vote of no confidence likely. Regardless of your view on brexit, doesn't this whole thing just wreak of the kind of string, stable government we never would have got under Ed Miliband? For me personally I've long since ceased giving a toss about brexit itself. The real story here is the absolute failure of our ruling party to govern in anything approaching a competent way and that alone gives me cause to think brexit will be a disaster. Surely even the leave voters can see that, right? This is an absolute, colissal balls up. By all means let's brexit but for ****'s sake let's elect a vaguely competent government first, not this combination of crooks, chancers and morons. I agree, but lets ask ourselves why. Its a balls up because of the following, 1 TM wanted to attempt to keep everyone happy. 2 Ever since day 1, the remain element of the country has not backed or accepted that the country voted to leave 3 The conservatives were led by a remain biased person. 4 Every element, Led by the press has been playing up the disaster that Brexit will cause, whilst playing down or even ignoring what good it can bring. 5 The press and politicians have been trying to force any negotiations possible into the hands of the EU by demanding a No Deal scenario is taken off the table. So yes, its difficult, but it has been made more difficult by ourselves, whilst EU just sit there and wring there hands at the stupidity of our own people and political class. If the people had respected the result in the first instance we would be in a much stronger and happier place.
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