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Post by shrewforever on Jan 28, 2018 15:05:30 GMT 1
Well Radio Slops Football expert Mark Elliot came out with "well it looks like 2 from 3 now" for the automatic places with only 18 games to go!!!!!!!!!!!! after yesterdays results
He also said before the game it was paramount we picked up something yesterday as Blackburn were a 3 point banker.
Cant have it myself,total bs if you ask me......some teams hit or hitting awful runs,Bradford City for instance,Scunny slipping up a bit,Charlton look to be over a bad patch and have won 3 on the spin,Rotherham cant get beaten recently, and Gillingham are flying.
I know there is a decent gap opening up but personally think 2 from current top three for the automatic places, is way too premature.
Well I've predicted all final results now for top 12 teams ( and I dont expect to have got any of those predictions wrong, cos I'm a genius) and it seems OBVIOUS (NOT) to me that we will end up 3rd missing automatic by 1 point only which is a bit of a bummer.
Dont know why I did current top 12 teams as Mr Elliot has it down to 2 from the current top 3 ,and I suppose his footballing expertise must count for something, but wondering how many people agree with him or would suggest,which is all I am doing, that it is a tad early for that.
Sadly predicting the outcome of 18 games for only 1 football team, never mind 8 or 9, is a little trickier than I think Mr Elliot would have us believe, for otherwise we would all surely be winning the pools every Saturday and looking forward to beating the Germans to the beach in the morning as opposed to drudging off to bloody work.
Anybody agree with him?,just interested.................
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Post by shrewder on Jan 28, 2018 15:19:01 GMT 1
If predicting was that easy we may as well not play the matches and just allocate results by a panel of "experts".
I believe anything can happen. Any team can have a drop in form or raise their game for the run in. It is still in Town's own hand to finish in 2nd place.
When we get to the point when there are only about 10 games left then the pressure will really kick in at both the top and bottom of the league. At that point you can then start to see a few unexpected results. Totally disagree with Mark Elliot. Too early to discount teams outside the top 3.
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Post by shrewforever on Jan 28, 2018 15:26:06 GMT 1
you should write my posts for me shrewder,exactly what I wanted to say but I always seem to need to write a book to say it when a sentence will do............spot on matey couldn't have said it better myself.........
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Jan 28, 2018 15:30:12 GMT 1
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Post by shrewder on Jan 28, 2018 15:30:12 GMT 1
you should write my posts for me shrewder,exactly what I wanted to say but I always seem to need to write a book to say it when a sentence will do............spot on matey couldn't have said it better myself......... Thanks for the compliment. It is to write when someone has given you something to comment on.
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Jan 28, 2018 15:31:32 GMT 1
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Post by shrewder on Jan 28, 2018 15:31:32 GMT 1
Should have at beginning "It is easy to write when... " sorry
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Post by bobbytheblock19er on Jan 28, 2018 16:14:32 GMT 1
Everyone would have expected Bradford and Blackburn to win yesterday , they didn’t . But they will both be in be mix at the end IMO . Wigan and Blackburn will take some stopping , in fact I can’t remember when either of them lost a game . It’s a shame 3 don’t go up automatically from league 1 is all I can say!
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Jan 28, 2018 16:57:13 GMT 1
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Post by Valerioch on Jan 28, 2018 16:57:13 GMT 1
I’ve thought it 2 from 3 for a while now.
Bradford can’t win a home game and have a record almost as bad as Bury. With A home record like that you can count them out imo.
S****horpe appear too inconsistent to trouble the top 2
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Post by ssshrew on Jan 28, 2018 16:57:40 GMT 1
Everyone would have expected Bradford and Blackburn to win yesterday , they didn’t . But they will both be in be mix at the end IMO . Wigan and Blackburn will take some stopping , in fact I can’t remember when either of them lost a game . It’s a shame 3 don’t go up automatically from league 1 is all I can say! Just what I've been thinking. It is a shame that only two go up automatically. I would be feeling much more content if this were the case must admit.
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Post by thesensationaljt on Jan 28, 2018 17:07:45 GMT 1
It looks simple enough, 'ere let me 'ave a go.
On Sunday March 4th, Blackburn are at home to Wigan. I can only see Juan of three results in this game.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 17:10:41 GMT 1
Who is Mark Elliot?
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Jan 28, 2018 17:34:34 GMT 1
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Post by bobbytheblock19er on Jan 28, 2018 17:34:34 GMT 1
someone who actually speaks his mind , which is a breath of fresh air on the radio. Should let him ask hurst the questions after a difficult game!
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Post by mrbunny on Jan 28, 2018 17:49:18 GMT 1
someone who actually speaks his mind , which is a breath of fresh air on the radio. Should let him ask hurst the questions after a difficult game! His mind is totally stupid if he thinks it is 2 from 3 with so long left.
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Jan 28, 2018 18:01:27 GMT 1
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Post by ThrobsBlackHat on Jan 28, 2018 18:01:27 GMT 1
I think it's more he doesn't expect us all to slip up.
Of course any of the top three can be caught, but it's less likely all of us.
So in that sense it's very likely two of those three because whatever we've done to get this far we can keep on doing.
Which makes us vulnerable with a small squad and some very key players.
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Jan 28, 2018 18:10:46 GMT 1
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Post by bobbytheblock19er on Jan 28, 2018 18:10:46 GMT 1
someone who actually speaks his mind , which is a breath of fresh air on the radio. Should let him ask hurst the questions after a difficult game! His mind is totally stupid if he thinks it is 2 from 3 with so long left. hes probably right tho . Wigan and Blackburn don’t lose games much, therefore sc***horpe Bradford and the rest are unlikely to catch up. We have only lost 4 all season , so losing 5 or 6 on the bounce and the others catching up is unlikely . We’ve played 2 less than Sc***horpe and Bradford don’t forget .
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Post by mrbunny on Jan 28, 2018 18:48:08 GMT 1
His mind is totally stupid if he thinks it is 2 from 3 with so long left. hes probably right tho . Wigan and Blackburn don’t lose games much, therefore s****horpe Bradford and the rest are unlikely to catch up. We have only lost 4 all season , so losing 5 or 6 on the bounce and the others catching up is unlikely . We’ve played 2 less than S****horpe and Bradford don’t forget . Look at the table from last season, Sc***horpe were in a similar position to us now and finished way behind and in the play offs. Long way to go yet and pressure does funny things.
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Post by shrewswolf on Jan 28, 2018 18:54:20 GMT 1
Crikey, I think it’s a perfectly reasonable thing to say. The only teams who have shown consistency so far are the current top 3. Yes football can change and teams can falter but it’s hardly a comment meriting this criticism is it?
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Jan 28, 2018 19:36:16 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2018 19:36:16 GMT 1
The OP is right in that there are so many points to play for that the table could look very different, but if I was a betting man would I bet against it being 2 out of 3? Probably not.
February is a key month for me, at both ends of the table. If anyone is going to make a late run from mid table they usually have to start in Feb (especially this year with a gap forming), the real promotion contenders grind out wins in mucky conditions and the dust from the transfer window settles. With the dwindling number of games remaining gaps start really meaning something, a 10 point gap with 10 or 11 games to go is suddenly quite a challenge. At the bottom, if you're not pulling clear by March then your often in a scrap until well into April. The fun continues!
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Post by venceremos on Jan 28, 2018 20:16:29 GMT 1
It's a perfectly reasonable thing to say and, as Elliott would be the first to admit I'm sure, it is only his opinion after all. What's wrong with having an opinion and expressing it? It's what this board is all about and nobody has to agree.
For what it's worth I think it's much more likely than not that Elliott is right. It's not just that there are sizeable points gaps (and goal difference) to make up, or that the teams behind the top three have either played 2 or 3 more games or have even more points to catch up. It's also that two out of three teams will have to stumble badly for the gaps to be closed and that very rarely happens. One perhaps but two would be very unusual.
Does that make it certain? Of course not, but I don't think anyone's saying it is.
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dinno
Midland League Division Two
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Jan 28, 2018 20:47:17 GMT 1
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Post by dinno on Jan 28, 2018 20:47:17 GMT 1
Current Top 2 betting would suggest Elliot's comment is perfectly reasonable.
It's 33/1 bar the current top 3 teams and a simple addition up of the remaining team's percentages suggest it's around a 10/1 shot that any other team makes the automatic spots.
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bhmon
Midland League Division Two
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Post by bhmon on Jan 28, 2018 21:01:33 GMT 1
Current Top 2 betting would suggest Elliot's comment is perfectly reasonable. It's 33/1 bar the current top 3 teams and a simple addition up of the remaining team's percentages suggest it's around a 10/1 shot that any other team makes the automatic spots. Yep, don't see the issue with his comments. Think OP is thinking Elliot has said nobody else can get in top 3; that is not what he is saying. Of course teams could still finish above us. But in terms of actually getting into Top 2, think it's quite unlikely it will be anyone else other than the 3 already there. Going to be very difficult for us to come second IMO, given the strength of Wigan and Blackburn - even harder for those teams already behind having played a few games more.
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Post by shrewsace on Jan 28, 2018 21:11:46 GMT 1
Anyone getting wound up over this perfectly reasonable analysis really needs to get a ****ing grip.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Jan 29, 2018 21:05:57 GMT 1
Well it looks that way at the minute but now that it's 3 for the win and one for the draw there is nowt stopping someone from the chasing pack making up ground considering there is a shed load of games remaining. What we will find now is that it'll be about the smallest of margins, when you are top and battling for promotion there is so little room for error because everyone around you is decent enough to continue to pick up points. A couple of defeats on the bounce and it really does have a massive impact on your chances. A couple of dodgy performances and results can see you fall a fair way behind. I mean automatic promotion of course, I would hope we have done enough for a play off spot (hope that's not the kiss of death).
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Post by neilsalop on Jan 30, 2018 8:40:51 GMT 1
It looks simple enough, 'ere let me 'ave a go.
On Sunday March 4th, Blackburn are at home to Wigan. I can only see Juan of three results in this game. ....but at least they both can't win. At least one of them will drop at least 2 points
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