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Post by Ned on Apr 3, 2011 22:34:35 GMT 1
Any of our gamblers have any tips for Saturday?
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Post by Dan F on Apr 3, 2011 22:37:47 GMT 1
Bet on the slowest, it's a proper sport so won't be won by the one who completes the race the fastest.
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Post by Myddleshrew on Apr 3, 2011 22:39:08 GMT 1
Any of our gamblers have any tips for Saturday? Dont wipe your arse with broken glass
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 4, 2011 1:57:11 GMT 1
General trends
There will be 40 runners but there's still 74 declared so i'll stick to the top 50
•8 to 12 years old •handicap rating above 135 on the day •weight of 11 stone 5lb or under •won over at least three miles •run in at least ten chases •won a chase worth at least £17,000
Take out :
Age - Quinz, Quolibet (both 7), Hello bud (13)
Weight - Don't Push It, Tidal Bay, Midnight Chase, Synchronised, Vic Venturi, What A Friend (all carry 11st 6lb)
Distance - Or Noir De Somoza, Santas Son,
Less than 10 chases - Majestic Concorde (7), The Tother One (9), The Midnight Club (8), Becauseicouldntsee (7), Nedzers Return (7), King Fontaine (9), Ornais (8), Surface To Air (4), Our Monty (5)
17K Win - Dooneys Gate, Piraya, Thats Rythmn, Royal Rosa
Leaves
Scotsirish Big Fella Thanks Ballabriggs Niche Market Backstage Chief Dan George Silver By Nature Notre Pere Calgary Bay Killyglen Oscar Time Ballytrim Comply Or Die Northern Alliance Grand Slam Hero Roll Along State Of Play In Compliance West End Rocker Bluesea Cracker Cant Buy Time Character Building Arbor Supreme Frankie Figg One Cool Cookie Always Waining
As the going is likely to be good or good to soft I think those 26 can be cut down to a more managable 9 by removing horses who have not won atleast two 3m+ chase on good/soft or good.
Takes out : Scotsirish, Big Fella Thanks, Backstage, Silver By Nature, Notre Pere, Calgary Bay, Killyglen, Oscar Time, Ballytrim, Northern Alliance, Grand Slam Hero, Roll Along, In Compliance, Bluesea Cracker, Character Building, Arbor Supreme, Frankie Figg,
Leaves : Ballabriggs Niche Market Chief Dan George Comply Or Die State Of Play West End Rocker Can't Buy Time One Cool Cookie Always Waining
Next step, they've got to be able to jump, so remove horses who have 2 or more careers falls or unseated over jumps
Takes out : Niche Market, Can't Buy Time, Always Waining
Leaves : Ballabriggs Chief Dan George Comply Or Die State Of Play West End Rocker One Cool Cookie
Recent form ideally should be good, so take out any horse not placing in its last race or not running in the last 50 days (fallers/UR not included)
Takes out : Comply Or Die, State Of Play, West End Rocker
Leaves :
Ballabriggs Chief Dan George One Cool Cookie
Of those final three One Cool Cookie has tackled these fences before in the Becher Chase jumping well and staying on over 3m 2f to finish a 10l 3rd. I'll have a small e/w on him if the 7 drop out and he gets into the final 40. Looks like he's been taken out of most of the betting though.
Other than that I think i'll be backing Ballabriggs 14/1 who is probably a bit better than his official mark for the race as he ran over hurdles until the weights came out (to protect the mark no doubt) and on that basis I reckon he's the winner with a small e/w on Chief Dan George
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Post by andygroundo on Apr 4, 2011 7:13:12 GMT 1
Love it Champagne Prince What didn't come into your reckoning when eliminating West End Rocker was that in his last race the jockey had a " double handful" from flag to post
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Post by mrbunny on Apr 4, 2011 7:56:25 GMT 1
I am a huge fan of Skippers Brig but i fear he won't get in. He beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time out who both fall into Champagne's list.Fingers crossed he gets in.
As for the rest well What A Friend will go well if he takes to the fences, you don't finish 4th in a Gold Cup without having some class, probably won't win but should make first 4. Not sure it will be soft enough for Silver By Nature. Ruby needs respecting on The Midnight Club, jumping off the Gold Cup 4th says this horse must be pretty good and well handicapped.
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foxyloxy
Shropshire County League
The thrill of the chase!
Posts: 35
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Post by foxyloxy on Apr 4, 2011 11:52:48 GMT 1
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 4, 2011 14:58:48 GMT 1
Poor Cookie Non -runners confirmed for Saturday so far. Synchronised Notre Pere Midnight Chase Scotsirish Ballytrim Nezers Return Frankie Figg One Cool Cookie No doubt there will be a few more yet, so Bunny Skippers Brigg might still get in as he's 44 in the list. I'd agree about his form versus Ballabriggs as that looks decent but he does fail on the trends (only 9 races over jumps and no win in a £17k race although he has placed). He's also 9 wins to his name but they have all come on soft or heavy. To be fair he's only had 4 runs in anything better than soft finishing 12th, winning 1, placing in another and unseating. I would say it was a concern that his connections were keeping him to soft ground races as it's logical to assume that that's the going they think is best for him. I'll take a look at some more lower down the list a bit later on.
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Post by mrbunny on Apr 4, 2011 15:31:11 GMT 1
No doubt there will be a few more yet, so Bunny Skippers Brigg might still get in as he's 44 in the list. I'd agree about his form versus Ballabriggs as that looks decent but he does fail on the trends (only 9 races over jumps and no win in a £17k race although he has placed). He's also 9 wins to his name but they have all come on soft or heavy. To be fair he's only had 4 runs in anything better than soft finishing 12th, winning 1, placing in another and unseating. I would say it was a concern that his connections were keeping him to soft ground races as it's logical to assume that that's the going they think is best for him. I'll take a look at some more lower down the list a bit later on. He got injured as a novice so they have taken care of him ever since. If he gets in the ground won't be a major concern as long as it doesn't come up good to firm. He travels so well in races and jumps like a stag so i would like to think off a featherweight he would run well. If not he is in the Scottish National a week later so i'll do him in that instead.
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 7, 2011 12:47:13 GMT 1
Skippers Brig has made it in at number 39 Mr Bunny Nick Mordin in The Weekender went for Oscar Time in The National stating it was the only one worth backing. On top of his normal '13 statistical tests' he comes at the trends from a new angle. The last seven National winners all earned a Racing Post chase rating bigger than 145 that season (for six it was their biggest chase rating ever), they'd all reached the first three in a chase worth at least £30k over 3m 3f or more and none of them had won more than one of their last 7 starts. This cuts the field down to 4 Becauseicouldntsee - However, he goes on to say that in the last 22 years no Grand National winner had fewer than nine previous chase runs (and he's fairly certain that that's the case for the last 50 winners) Le Beau Bai - looks unlikely to make the cut Niche Market - However, he goes on to say that Nicholls has run 48 horses in The National and they've all lost. He was pulled up last year and although quite a few National winners failed to complete the course in previous outings over the National fences none of the last 22 had to be pulled up. Oscar Time - states that he is one of only two horses to pass his thirteen statistical tests' (the other is Bluesea Cracker)
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Apr 7, 2011 12:49:18 GMT 1
Didn't we have a B&A sweep some time back?
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Post by Pilch on Apr 7, 2011 12:54:42 GMT 1
i've gone £5ew on quinz no idea about form, owner, jockey, nowt just liked the 16/1 odds
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 7, 2011 13:15:49 GMT 1
The more I look at it Mr Bunny, the more I like Skippers Brigg. Especially as the ground is now officially Soft (Good to Soft in places). You may have tempted me into a small e/w on the day Already on Ballabriggs, Chief Dan George and will probably follow the Mordin tip on Oscar Time. By the time of the race i'd have backed half the field
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Post by Ned on Apr 8, 2011 19:42:19 GMT 1
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Post by shrewroo on Apr 8, 2011 21:13:22 GMT 1
I've heard good things about Liberty Bushman, that's where my cold hard earned cash will be going. Probably e/w just to be on the safe side.
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Post by hooverfoxhat on Apr 8, 2011 21:25:52 GMT 1
Each way bets on Silver By Nature and Calgary Bay for me.
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Post by albionshrew on Apr 8, 2011 22:21:55 GMT 1
What does each way mean? Do the horses have to run back down the course after they finish? My wife wants to put a bet on too. I do not have a clue. Is Turner's Triumph in the race?
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Post by grinfish on Apr 8, 2011 23:21:25 GMT 1
What does each way mean? Do the horses have to run back down the course after they finish? My wife wants to put a bet on too. I do not have a clue. Is Turner's Triumph in the race? Assuming you're serious, Each Way (E/W) means that you bet on the same horse twice - Once to Win, and Once to Place at a fraction of the quoted odds to win. So, a £2.50 E/W bet would cost you £5. Illustration Turner's Triumph is offered at odds of 10/1, with 1/4 odds for a place finish. For our race, the places paid will be down to 4th. So, if TT comes first, you win: £2.50 x 10 for the "to win" portion of the bet. £2.50 x (10/4) for the "to place" portion of the bet. Thus you'd profit by £25 + £6.25 = £31.25, plus your original fiver back on top = £36.25. If TT came second, third or fourth, you'd get: Nothing for the "to win" portion of the bet (losing you £2.50 stake money) £2.50 x (10/4) for the "to place" portion of the bet. So, you get back £6.25 of profit, but only the £2.50 of stake money for the "to place" section of your bet, = £8.75. So essentially, it costs you twice as much, but gives you a better chance of getting something back. Because Grand National odds are traditionally higher due to the size of the field, E/W bets are the best way to go if you're fancying a blind punt, especially as due to the size of the field you'll normally get paid down to (at least) 4th place. Leave the To Win Only bets to those with more money than sense (Like when Ghostie has 50 pence in his pocket ) Hope that helps, and if you were joking, I shall smite thee down with furious anger - or kneecap you with tomorrow's Racing Post
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 9, 2011 1:19:32 GMT 1
I think the ground will have gone against Skippers Brig tomorrow Mr Bunny. It'll probably be good to firm by 4pm tomorrow (officially it'll be good) with sunshine and no rain forecast.
Therefore, I decided not to bet, likewise I think Mordins choice Oscar Time is too short a price. I'm happy to stick with Ballabriggs, Chief Dan George as the outsider and will also go for Arbor Supreme now that the ground has changed.
Good luck all !
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Post by theriverside on Apr 9, 2011 8:48:27 GMT 1
I like the shrewd one's comment above on West End Rocker so that's my mind made up. Silver By Nature is my e/w cover. Also chosen entirely at random as they liked their colours the wife and kids have chosen - Oscar Time 14/1 Golden Kite 50/1 Quolibet 150/1
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Post by mattmw on Apr 9, 2011 9:25:30 GMT 1
Guys on channel 4 racing reckon there have been a lot of fallers this week at the meeting, possibly as the fences are a bit tougher this year, so those horses with a slightly iffy jumping record might struggle
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Post by mrbunny on Apr 9, 2011 9:35:38 GMT 1
The way Sam Winner ran on in the Triumph the extra half mile in the novice hurdle would be greatfor him, got to go close.
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Post by stfcfan87 on Apr 9, 2011 13:37:31 GMT 1
bet365 and skybet are placing up to 5th place which might help
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Post by lionshrew on Apr 9, 2011 15:46:38 GMT 1
Got my money on
Ballabriggs 20/1 What A Friend 14/1
Both each way!!!
Betted on Bet365 so I get money if my horses finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th!!!
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Post by grinfish on Apr 9, 2011 15:49:10 GMT 1
The Midnight Club and Don't Push It on reverse forecast, then 4 wider rides on E/W terms because, well, anything can happen.
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Post by grinfish on Apr 9, 2011 16:27:41 GMT 1
Oh, did I mention one of my wider E/Ws was Ballabriggs?
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 9, 2011 16:34:16 GMT 1
Get in Balla !
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Post by theshrews81 on Apr 9, 2011 16:41:52 GMT 1
First, Second and third both came in.
Ballabriggs to win and each way, the other two each way.
Might treat myself to a pint
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Post by mattmw on Apr 9, 2011 16:50:59 GMT 1
EW bet on Oscar time proved to be quite profitable
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Post by lionshrew on Apr 9, 2011 17:07:37 GMT 1
Well done Ballabriggs. Won £21 on him to win + £6 on him each way!!! Total up to £27, yes!!!! Could just do with that!!! Cheered me up a bit after todays result
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