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Post by SeanBroseley on May 6, 2005 6:41:26 GMT 1
How irritating to be living in a Tory constituency again. Not unexpected, in fact the margin was less than I expected. Matthew Green didn't deserve that fate as he has een a very visible and able constituency MP of the old school. I do own a <a href="http://www.serverlogic3.com/lm/rtl3.asp?si=11&k=tweed%20coat" onmouseover="window.status='tweed coat'; return true;" onmouseout="window.status=''; return true;">tweed coat</a> so the new incumbent may take some notice of me - at least until he understands it. However, I note that the sun rose this morning. I'm still holding down two jobs to suport my family. The Longbridge factory will still close, IBM and Marconi will still shed jobs and some of us will not be able to watch our team play on Saturday. None of that will change - or would have changed whatever the result of this election. Finally: George Galloway
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2005 7:33:27 GMT 1
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Post by Mattmw on May 6, 2005 8:01:08 GMT 1
Great shame Matthew Green's lost his seat as he was a very good local MP.
Mind you the Tories could put a blue Conservative badge on the village idiot and he'd still get in.
Unfortunately in Dunn's case it does sound like the village idiot won the seat!!
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Post by Dicky Knee on May 6, 2005 8:13:15 GMT 1
"barstewards gain Ludlow" ..but I thought the Conservatives won that one Good news all round then.....
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matt
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Post by matt on May 6, 2005 8:54:09 GMT 1
i worked for Matthew Green last summer, he's a top bloke, and worked very hard for his constituents. unlike Christopher Gill.... bad luck.
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Post by SeanBroseley on May 6, 2005 9:32:45 GMT 1
"barstewards gain Ludlow" ..but I thought the Conservatives won that one Good news all round then..... My apologies - I didn't actually type barstewards.
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Post by Simon on May 6, 2005 10:01:56 GMT 1
Bit harsh on Phillip Dunne. I agree that Matt Green was a good local const. MP but you can't really expect a party more left wing than labour to do well in the South of Shropshire. I brought back four members of my family from the Lib Dems so I'm proud to have done my bit. ;D
This message board has and never will be friendly to the Tories but I'm very proud of their showing in Shropshire as a whole. Phillip Dunne is much needed new blood in a party that will be on the verge of be elected 4-5 years from now.
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Post by mattmw on May 6, 2005 10:51:26 GMT 1
On a national scale the conservatives are still less popular than Micheal Foot in 1983. They are still 8 years away from winning an election again.
the national results are actually quite good for the left, the National parties in Scotland and Wales have held ground, the lib dems have gained ground and most of the labour losses were New Labour MP's. In all likely hood Gordon Brown will become labour leader within 18 months.
Doubt we're see much of mr Dunn in Ludlow anyway, he's very ymuch a tory boy and will spend most of his time socialising in London - just like Gill did.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2005 11:27:14 GMT 1
On a national scale the conservatives are still less popular than Micheal Foot in 1983. They are still 8 years away from winning an election again. No, less successful. Much more popular.
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Post by Dicky Knee on May 6, 2005 11:29:17 GMT 1
On a national scale the conservatives are still less popular than Micheal Foot in 1983. ...and this present government is about on the par with Michael Foot's popularity. Interesting result: approx 3% difference in votes (36% - 33%) but about 75% difference in seats. On that note, over to Mr Charles Kennedy ;D
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Post by mattmw on May 6, 2005 12:37:52 GMT 1
The electral system is actuallly quite biased against the Tories, because they generally win more rural seats where there is less population.
With the recent boundary changes they probably need around 42% of the vote to win power again. With the emeragance of the Welsh and Scotish National parties and the Lib Dems this is unlikely to happen in the near future.
Labour changed massively between 1983 and 1997. I'm not sure that the conservatives, even after 3 election defeats, feel that they need to change.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2005 12:47:16 GMT 1
Interesting comments Matt.
Personally, I think that figures of 42% need to be revised in view of an election such as last night. That was regionalised beyond belief and for my view only Andrew Marr out of the political commentators was anywhere near what was happening more than 48 hours before the results came in.
Labour strategists must have been absolutely s**tting it when the 6.5% swing in Putney was announced, but the Tories couldn't make enough inroads elsewhere to increase the dent in the majority.
Make no doubt about it, the Liberal Democrats are now well established as a party able to take seats away from all parts of the UK, the death of the Tory Party was announced prematurely and they now at least have an idea of what it will take to win an election.
Could it be 3 different leaders leading their parties to the polls in 4 years time? Almost certainly.
It was also not a good night for the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists. Plaid had their number reduced and are now condemned to a future of marginalisation in
And this has very little effect on the overall majority either apart from a possibility of Lib Dems becoming ever stronger North and West of England.
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Post by mattmw on May 6, 2005 13:17:13 GMT 1
Welshshrew
I'd agree that the National Parties are probably going to be minority parties in Scotland and Wales, but they will be holding enough seats to stop the Conservatives getting a big enough swing to take power.
There are probably about 180 seats that Labour will always win in the North and Midllands and about 130 seats that the tories will always win. Labour only need to get about 300 to gain power as they know that the Lib Dems and National parties will take the remaining seats and will by and large support Labour polices. Increasibgly there are also more independents winning seats.
The Conservative are really on their own as a political party, with the exception of the Unionists in Northern Ireland, so will always need a much bigger percentage of the vote and the overall seats.
To get backin power they need to start making policy connections with soemof the other parties. Perhaps with the lib dems on Tuition fees? this is where i think the conservatives don't want to change as they feel that they are the natural party of government in the UK - which in fairness they were for most of the 20th Century
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2005 13:42:27 GMT 1
1992 election - Tories won 65 more seats than Labour (and yet 7% more of the general vote!!!), and yet only 3 seats more in Wales than they won last night. I think you're closer to the button on Scotland though (even though they only won 11 seats there - and so effectively could have been wiped out in Scotland and Wales as in 97 and still had a majority - just about I think) but see no reason why they will not believe they can do better there next time. Just one last point - was there any more than 2 Independents that got in? Cheers
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Post by mattmw on May 6, 2005 14:00:33 GMT 1
Welshshrew
independents - i think there are two in England and one in Wales. My point about them is that they are an example of how local issues are effecting many seats in the UK.
Generally the Conservatives have always been a "one Nation " party applying the same policies to the whole of the country. I still think that mind set is still in existance today, the conservative tend to get in a mess when they try to inforce a single issue on all their MPs - ie Keep the pound in 2001 and Europe in general.
Where Labour has been successful in recent years is allowing the older more left wing members of the party to set the agenda in their constituancies, while the more new Labour agenda has been promoted in the seats they gained in 1997.
to get back in power I think the Conservatives need to become a broader church, with a wider variety of policies for different areas of the country, most notiably they need to get people like Ken Clarke back on the front bench. Most conservatives may not like his views on Europe but he would be a major asset on economic and health issues.
As you said earlier the next election could be between three new leaders, who knows what will happen.
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