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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 11:58:55 GMT 1
Carlisle 30 points - Wycombe H Derby A.
Fleetwood 40 points - Burton H.
Cheltenham 41 points - Peterborough H Stevenage A.
Port Vale 40 points - Cambridge H.
Burton 46 points - Fleetwood A.
Cambridge 46 points - Wycombe H Port Vale A.
Shrewsbury 48 points - Leyton Orient H.
I'll keep this updated.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 12:02:38 GMT 1
Even if we lose at Portsmouth, 5 of these clubs are playing away on Saturday, and the 2 at home are facing Oxford and Lincoln, so hopefully we won't lose too much ground.
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Post by mrcricket on Apr 2, 2024 12:11:01 GMT 1
Burton are the buffer/safety net for a lot of the clubs above them now.
Cambridge seem to have started to win again, Realistically it looks like Carlisle and Fleetwood are too far behind to catch up, Cheltenham have an extra game in hand (I think its against Burton which could be a real six pointer).
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Post by chirkshrew on Apr 2, 2024 12:12:21 GMT 1
Didn't Fleetwood get a win or draw at Pompey???🤔🤔
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Post by GrizzlyShrew on Apr 2, 2024 12:13:46 GMT 1
Barring any last minute runs of either very good or very poor form for me its 2 out of 3 (Burton, Cheltenham, Port Vale) to accompany Fleetwood and Carlisle.
I'm not unduly worried about us joining them. We can and would pull out a result if we really had to I'm sure despite being e much of the season.
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Post by chirkshrew on Apr 2, 2024 12:15:04 GMT 1
I'm a bit worried about Cheltenham with there 2 games in hand......and they've got some winnable games in the run in
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 2, 2024 12:26:01 GMT 1
For me third place for relegation favourites are Cheltenham or Port Vale.
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Post by Pilch on Apr 2, 2024 12:27:38 GMT 1
on a plus point, we have an extra days rest as pomp have a big game tonight
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 12:42:31 GMT 1
I'm a bit worried about Cheltenham with there 2 games in hand......and they've got some winnable games in the run in True - but their last 3 games are Lincoln H Peterborough H and Stevenage A - None of those are easy.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 12:44:22 GMT 1
I'm more worried about our goal difference which is worse than anyone else except Carlisle.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 12:48:27 GMT 1
Didn't Fleetwood get a win or draw at Pompey???🤔🤔 Yes, they managed a draw.
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Post by Worthingshrew on Apr 2, 2024 13:26:49 GMT 1
Didn't Fleetwood get a win or draw at Pompey???🤔🤔 Yes, they managed a draw. I think Burton might have got a point there as well?
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Post by ProudSalopian on Apr 2, 2024 14:03:13 GMT 1
Cheltenham looked like they were going to pull off the impossible escape but have hit poor form at the wrong time (1 win in 8) whilst Burton look they are spiralling (0 wins in 9) too so you'd say your money is on them two to join Carlisle & Fleetwood.
However, this is the stage of the season where the pressure gets to some teams and you get freak/unexpected results
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 2, 2024 14:42:15 GMT 1
Personally this could go anyway, we are not safe and I won't feel comfortable until it's mathematically safe.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 2, 2024 14:55:54 GMT 1
League 1 form table last 6 games 17 Cambridge 45 PTS 18 Fleetwood 34 PTS 19 Cheltenham 38 PTS 20 Bristol rovers 51 PTS 21 Carlisle 27pts 22 Stevenage 64 PTS 23 Leyton Orient 58pts 24 Burton Albion 40 PTS
Out of the teams on the list with there points tally, Bristol Rovers, Stevenage, and Leyton Orient are safe. In the form table Town are 13 th with 46 points
We have managed to get 8 points from a possible 24 PTS, but we have the second worst GD only Carlisle has a worse goal difference than us , which is a concern when things are so tight
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Post by tarporleyblue on Apr 2, 2024 15:57:59 GMT 1
So what do we reckon we need from our remaining 5 games?
4 points will take us to the magic 50 points mark, should be enough you would think?
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Post by Bob Rickerton on Apr 2, 2024 16:56:48 GMT 1
So what do we reckon we need from our remaining 5 games? 4 points will take us to the magic 50 points mark, should be enough you would think? My hunch is that technically we'll need 0.
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Post by ThrobsBlackHat on Apr 2, 2024 17:01:32 GMT 1
We are by no means safe looking at those fixtures.
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Post by Feedo Gnasher on Apr 2, 2024 17:18:08 GMT 1
Carlisle, Fleetwood and Port Vale will all finish below us even if we don’t win another game, and I can only see one of Burton or Cheltenham at most getting to 46.
We’ll be fine.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 2, 2024 17:50:55 GMT 1
So what do we reckon we need from our remaining 5 games? 4 points will take us to the magic 50 points mark, should be enough you would think? You would hope so.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 2, 2024 18:05:03 GMT 1
Town have a maximum 15 points to get from the remaining ganes If we could get 50 points
Most of the teams below us would need 11 points to overtake us, the problem for us is if things get tight is our poor goal difference , however a number of the teams below us play each other. Port vale, Cheltenham and Cambridge all have games in hand. So for town 52 points wold be better as then as then a number of teams would need to win 4 out the 5 remaining games to draw level.
If we got 50 points Fleetwood and Carlisle could not catch us.
You can give yourself. A headache with all the variables , at the end of the day town players need to give 150 % and pick up points from every remaing game . It will be tough but a point in the next game will help.
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Post by East Sussex Shrew on Apr 2, 2024 18:08:19 GMT 1
At the end of the day, it is down to the 11 players that cross that line along with the subs that represent STFC to keep us in League 1. It is in our hands, beat Pompey on Saturday and we can smoke a cigar! We will need men of quality, steel and desires to over come the Fratton Farts!
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Post by chirkshrew on Apr 2, 2024 18:22:25 GMT 1
Trouble is..... there's no desire or bottle in that team.... You don't know what your gonna get...wouldn't even bank on us beating Wycombe or orient at home tbh🤷🤷
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 18:36:02 GMT 1
Unfortunately, Portsmouth are on a 14 game unbeaten run!
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Post by cabanas2017 on Apr 2, 2024 19:26:07 GMT 1
Unfortunately, Portsmouth are on a 13 game unbeaten run! Due a defeat then
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Post by jamo on Apr 2, 2024 20:01:43 GMT 1
Looks like we have the hardest run in on paper. We can only hope that Hursts post match comments on Saturday have some affect on the players because we can’t rely on others
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 20:38:24 GMT 1
Unfortunately, Portsmouth are on a 13 game unbeaten run! Due a defeat then Maybe Derby might provide it. 2-1 up at the moment. That Pompey crowd will be seriously intimidating for us on Saturday.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 2, 2024 20:41:27 GMT 1
Looks like we have the hardest run in on paper. We can only hope that Hursts post match comments on Saturday have some affect on the players because we can’t rely on others The home games against Wycombe and Leyton Orient are where the required points can be obtained. I can't see us getting anything out of our 3 remaining away games.
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Post by mrcricket on Apr 2, 2024 21:27:07 GMT 1
Got a draw at Pompey last season from memory 1-1 (Bennett?) I know they are a changed side.
Depending on what happens between now and the Wycombe home game I may need to do my and go to the away game at Bolton.
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bhmon
Midland League Division Two
Posts: 100
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Post by bhmon on Apr 2, 2024 21:48:31 GMT 1
We're 9/1 with bookmakers to go down, so an implied 10% chance
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