Llanelian
Midland League Division One
Posts: 407
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Post by Llanelian on Apr 23, 2019 7:40:51 GMT 1
If we fail to get anything from the Coventry game and one of the pack behind us win a game, what everyone seems to think would be a Walsall relegation party in the last game of the season, could well be a Shrewsbury relegation party, given the fact that Walsall could well be relegated by then and would relish coming here and taking us down with them. Given our very recent inconstistancy and 'in game management' it is a very real possibility.
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Post by harboroughshrew on Apr 23, 2019 9:15:45 GMT 1
It would take a pretty extraordinary run of results for us to go down (even assuming we dont get another point) given our good goal difference. That does not excuse the pathetic effort in the second half yesterday. The manager must take some responsibility for poor tactics but, looking at their second and third goals again, that was just rank bad defending by Waterfall and Mitchell. Why Williams was not put back there to use his pace against their quick centre-forward I do not know, especially after the second goal. Ricketts seems to want a team that does fancy flick-ons and short corners (where we usually do not even get a cross in) but the problem has been all season (under Askey as well ) that we just do not do the basics well enough. Just look at Luton - no star players but a very well drilled team who do the basics extremely well. Ricketts needs to learn fast before next season but I still think he would benefit greatly from having an experienced assistant rather than just bringing in old mates from his playing days.
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Post by horse01 on Apr 23, 2019 9:29:56 GMT 1
And unbelievably, some thought the point v Sc***horpe at home was a good result?!
That was a game we should have targeted and now have us safe!!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2019 9:32:33 GMT 1
And unbelievably, some thought the point v Sc***horpe at home was a good result?! That was a game we should have targeted and now have us safe!! If we stay up by one point it will have been the best point of the season!
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Post by blamber on Apr 23, 2019 9:36:10 GMT 1
After Wycombe, I'd targeted Sc***horpe and Oxford as the must win games. The two wins at Southend and Gillingham were critical. We may need one more point although we are very lucky that Plymouth and Sc***horpe still have to play each other. Our goal difference could yet save us from the drop as a team with 50 points could go down this year.
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Post by Stowmarket Shrew on Apr 23, 2019 10:14:30 GMT 1
I actually think we'll be safe before we next play again, barring perhaps a 10-15 GD swing.
Doesn't paper over any cracks though, of what's been a shambolic season.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 23, 2019 11:04:52 GMT 1
playing Walsall to stay up would be a nightmare. we have a poor record against them and then it will be down to who will wont it more.there are so many scenarios it can give you a headache to be mathematically safe we need two points from our last two games.
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Post by Pilch on Apr 23, 2019 11:43:56 GMT 1
And unbelievably, some thought the point v Sc***horpe at home was a good result?! That was a game we should have targeted and now have us safe!! do you seriously think we didn't try and win that game ?
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Post by mattmw on Apr 23, 2019 12:40:00 GMT 1
Think we’ll be safe by 5pm on Saturday - probably as a results of other results as much as ours
However it’s a big cloud over Ricketts time in charge this is even an issue - I’m not sure what the gap was to the bottom 4 when he over but come the seasons end we’re likely to be much closer to the drop than we were when he over
The season fading out on a poor run won’t help summer recruitment, and I suspect any honeymoon period for Ricketts is long over. Add I loan players leaving and out of contract players maybe moving on and we’re into a second unstable summer of transfers which is a worry
It’s hard at the moment to judge what next season holds and what the aims of the club will be.
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Post by blamber on Apr 23, 2019 15:16:07 GMT 1
We will be helped by the fact that Sc***horpe (46 points) and Plymouth (47 points) have to play each other so maximum points for at least one of them is not possible.
Our other bit of help is if Accrington lose at Doncaster tonight, they have a home game against Plymouth and away trip to Portsmouth to come. Assuming Wimbledon (45 points) are beaten by Luton tonight they will only be able to get another 6 points (v Wycombe at home and Bradford away - both very winnable) but with an awful goal difference. So we need one more point to be safe - unless Wimbledon get a result at Luton - in which case we could need 52 points. Southend (47), Accrington (48) and Wycombe (50) are all easily capable of reaching at least 52 points with the games they have remaining.
Results would not have to be too extraordinary for us to need at least a point against Walsall.
Here's hoping Doncaster and Luton both win tonight.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2019 16:17:46 GMT 1
Southend's last 2 games are Rochdale A and Sunderland H.
I wouldn't call those easy games.
And even if Plymouth and Sc***horpe both get 4 points, our superior goal difference would keep us ahead of Sc***horpe.
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Post by Feedo Gnasher on Apr 23, 2019 21:09:12 GMT 1
Southend's last 2 games are Rochdale A and Sunderland H. I wouldn't call those easy games. And even if Plymouth and Sc***horpe both get 4 points, our superior goal difference would keep us ahead of Sc***horpe. I haven’t studied the permutations in detail, but if the resident doom monger suggests we’re safe, then that’s good enough for me!
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2019 21:14:29 GMT 1
Unfortunately, it looks like we can cross Accrington off our hit list. They are winning 2-0 at Doncaster at the moment.
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Post by ssshrew on Apr 23, 2019 21:17:24 GMT 1
I still think we have to do it ourselves. It’s all far too complicated otherwise!
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2019 21:19:54 GMT 1
I still think we have to do it ourselves. It’s all far too complicated otherwise! Our best bet is Rochdale or Sunderland beating Southend.
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Post by Stowmarket Shrew on Apr 23, 2019 21:44:01 GMT 1
As I calculate it, if Wimbledon fail to beat Wycombe on Saturday then we're safe barring a mathematical miracle. Anyone else who hasn't got a headache from working it out care to confirm?
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Post by harboroughshrew on Apr 23, 2019 21:53:37 GMT 1
Wimbledon have just got a point at Luton so it may be a recalculation is necessary.
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Post by Stowmarket Shrew on Apr 23, 2019 21:58:23 GMT 1
Wimbledon have just got a point at Luton so it may be a recalculation is necessary. Makes no difference as the gd we have means they still need to win both games to go ahead of us.
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Post by Valerioch on Apr 23, 2019 22:05:15 GMT 1
Wimbledon are playing Wycombe and Bradford...
Officially squeaky bum time
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Post by chameleon on Apr 23, 2019 22:05:19 GMT 1
Need a big performance at Coventry on Sunday just to make sure of staying up.
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Post by Stowmarket Shrew on Apr 23, 2019 22:07:57 GMT 1
But it would still also need Southend to get at least a point in their last game against Sunderland, and that assumes they win on Saturday.
I'm not saying I'm pleased to be in this position but compared to everyone else near the bottom we're in a good place needing a pretty extraordinary set of results to see us relegated.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2019 22:11:06 GMT 1
No, AFC will still need to win both their games to go above us. A win and a draw would only get them to 50 points and our better goal difference would keep us above them.
If AFC fail to win against Wycombe or Rochdale beat Southend then we are safe. One of Plymouth or Sc***horpe must finish below us as they have to play one another. Walsall and Bradford already can't catch us. Otherwise it goes to the last game of the season if we fail to get a point at Coventry, with 1500 Walsall fans wanting us to go down with them. Other results might bail us out though, such as Sunderland beating Southend.
At least we have the advantage of playing on Sunday, so we'll know what needs to be done. Unfortunately, Doncaster losing tonight means that Coventry still have an outside chance of the playoffs. And Doncaster's last 2 games are Oxford A and Coventry H. So we desperately need Oxford to do us a favour and allow Doncaster to gain at least a point, which would put them out of reach of Coventry. Peterborough could also gain 70 points, but they'd need 4 points from 3 games, so even if they beat Walsall on Saturday, Coventry could still catch them.
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 23, 2019 22:16:25 GMT 1
Wimbledon and Sc***horpe - need to win their next two, a win and draw won't be enough with their much poorer goal difference Wimbledon - Wycombe home, Bradford away - ok chance they can get 6 points Sc***horpe - Bradford home, Plymouth away - again, ok chance they can get 6 points That would leave Plymouth in the sh*t and needing a thumping record away win to Accrington on Saturday, it won't happen. Therefore, we are safe
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2019 22:19:40 GMT 1
I said a couple of weeks ago we'd need another point and with our goal difference, it would be enough.
I would just rather do that than rely on the teams below us even if some have to play each other.
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Post by tvor on Apr 23, 2019 22:26:27 GMT 1
I’m not sure what the gap was to the bottom 4 when he over but come the seasons end we’re likely to be much closer to the drop than we were when he over We were in 15th place and seven points clear of the bottom four.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2019 22:29:45 GMT 1
Wimbledon and Sc***horpe - need to win their next two, a win and draw won't be enough with their much poorer goal difference Wimbledon - Wycombe home, Bradford away - ok chance they can get 6 points Sc***horpe - Bradford home, Plymouth away - again, ok chance they can get 6 points That would leave Plymouth in the sh*t and needing a thumping record away win to Accrington on Saturday, it won't happen. Therefore, we are safe Really? All that means is that Plymouth, Walsall and Bradford get relegated. Where is your 4th Club? Hopefully it's Southend, who need at least a win and a draw from their last 2 games. And if Wycombe lose to AFC, they'll need a point from their last game. So they'll be trying hard on Saturday, and if they even get a draw at AFC, then we are safe.
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Post by tvor on Apr 23, 2019 22:33:35 GMT 1
Sunderland may or may not still have something to play for by the time they visit Southend. A fired up Southend side/crowd against a Sunderland side already automatically promoted or already in the playoffs but who can't be automatically promoted isn't a good scenario for us.
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Post by blueboy62 on Apr 23, 2019 22:56:24 GMT 1
I am confident of being 2 -0 up at half time against a very poor Walsall side. I fear conceding fifteen 2nd half goals against their ten men.
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Post by champagneprince on Apr 23, 2019 23:00:15 GMT 1
Wimbledon and Sc***horpe - need to win their next two, a win and draw won't be enough with their much poorer goal difference Wimbledon - Wycombe home, Bradford away - ok chance they can get 6 points Sc***horpe - Bradford home, Plymouth away - again, ok chance they can get 6 points That would leave Plymouth in the sh*t and needing a thumping record away win to Accrington on Saturday, it won't happen. Therefore, we are safe Really? All that means is that Plymouth, Walsall and Bradford get relegated. Where is your 4th Club? Hopefully it's Southend, who need at least a win and a draw from their last 2 games. And if Wycombe lose to AFC, they'll need a point from their last game. So they'll be trying hard on Saturday, and if they even get a draw at AFC, then we are safe. Aww, FFS. I knew I'd f*cked something up Down with the Walsall, we're going down with.... That game has got 'lively' written all over it.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 24, 2019 9:01:02 GMT 1
Sunderland may or may not still have something to play for by the time they visit Southend. A fired up Southend side/crowd against a Sunderland side already automatically promoted or already in the playoffs but who can't be automatically promoted isn't a good scenario for us. I agree. AFC v Wycombe and Rochdale v Southend are our 2 best hopes on Sat. And as a long shot, Accrington to beat Plymouth whilst Sc***horpe only draw against Bradford. And just to confuse the issue, Sunderland are playing Portsmouth on Saturday. If Sunderland don't win that one, then they can effectively kiss goodbye to automatic promotion. However, they'd still need to keep going, otherwise Charlton might catch them and deny them the right to play the away leg 1st in the playoffs.
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