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Post by frankwellshrews on May 15, 2022 10:19:52 GMT 1
Tether haemorrhaging $1bn a day currently, finance rates for usdt/usd currently set at North of 30% on bitfinex. Looking very precarious indeed. Nervous, Martin? I'd be thinking about cashing out of i were you. Not in the slightest, it's a long term interest. It's play money to make pension money in my eyes. I don't think you understand the crypto make up fully, you seem obsessed with Tether news over anything else. Of course, why would anyone have any interest in the largest stablecoin in the market (which steadfastly refuses to submit to an external audit to confirm its dubious claims about its reserves) in a month where a stablecoin collapse saw one of the top ten ceyptos lose 100% of its value? This guardian article is a decent, succinct write up of the risks; www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/may/12/stablecoin-tether-breaks-dollar-peg-cryptocurrenciesThat was written two or three days ago and states tether had handed over about half of its cash. Since then another $2bn in market cap has gone. We're now at the point where tether is having to come up with alternative sources of cash (since no one actually wants tethers anymore) hence why bitfinex (which just happens to be part of the same group as tether) now has a finance rate for tethers set at above 30% (the implication being that bitfinex itself - an unregulated exchange - is desperately trying to gobble up as many tethers as it can to cover these insane interest rates whilst convincing suckers not to try to cash out their tethers at the same time. Couple of points that Guardian article fails to mention; - tether accounts for around 70 percent of crypto transactions in the whole market; - due to the fact most banks, correctly, won't touch crypto exchanges with a bargepole, crypto prices are in fact expressed in tethers which is assumed to be interchangeable with the dollar price (this is the fundamental basis of the entire con). What do you think will happen if/when there's a mass loss of faith in tether? Clue; we've seen it this month when the 3rd largest stablecoin, Terra, collapsed. Tether is to bitcoin what Terra was to Luna and the entire market follows bitcoin. Seriously, in what parallel universe is an interest rate of 30+% normal? We are literally watching this generation's Madoff/Enron scandal unfold and all crypto bros can do is weakly mumble "but you don't understand". You've often stated you have very little truck with "traditional finance" but here's a few traditional finance terms for you to look up; - wildcat bank; - bank run; - counterparty risk (as in what does a high rate of interest suggest about the level of it?)
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 7:20:18 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it.
Great inflation hedge 👍
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 10:16:38 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it. Great inflation hedge 👍 It's an absolute bloodbath.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 10:27:06 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it. Great inflation hedge 👍 It's an absolute bloodbath. Sub £20k now. Celsius has frozen withdrawals. Tether almost certainly now insolvent (as a company, at the very least). Eth crashing even worse as stEth breaks the peg. Michael Saylor getting ever closer to his 1st margin call. Absolutely gripping stuff. Are we witnessing history in the making here? Clearly there's been bear markets before but this is the first time crypto has had to weather a 2008 style financial crisis and it's not going so well. I have a feeling what we're seeing happen this year will be being studied in economics and accounting courses in years to come.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 10:29:02 GMT 1
It's an absolute bloodbath. Sub £20k now. Celsius has frozen withdrawals. Tether almost certainly now insolvent (as a company, at the very least). Eth crashing even worse as stEth breaks the peg. Michael Saylor getting ever closer to his 1st margin call. Absolutely gripping stuff. Are we witnessing history in the making here? Clearly there's been bear markets before but this is the first time crypto has had to weather a 2008 style financial crisis and it's not going so well. I have a feeling what we're seeing happen this year will be being studied in economics and accounting courses in years to come. This just 2017/2018 round again. Bitcoin hit a high, crashed, took the rest back down with it. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by?
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 10:43:07 GMT 1
Sub £20k now. Celsius has frozen withdrawals. Tether almost certainly now insolvent (as a company, at the very least). Eth crashing even worse as stEth breaks the peg. Michael Saylor getting ever closer to his 1st margin call. Absolutely gripping stuff. Are we witnessing history in the making here? Clearly there's been bear markets before but this is the first time crypto has had to weather a 2008 style financial crisis and it's not going so well. I have a feeling what we're seeing happen this year will be being studied in economics and accounting courses in years to come. This just 2017/2018 round again. Bitcoin hit a high, crashed, took the rest back down with it. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by? Maybe, maybe not. Even at its peak the market cap of the crypto market as a whole was far smaller than it is now. Tether for example ballooned from $1bn to $80bn+ at one point earlier this year (still at $70bn+ now). At this point there's murmurings of systemic risk. There's far more regulatory interest now and the introduction of crypto derivative type products (your algorithmic coins like terra, steth etc) and crypto financial services (like DeFi etc) is compounding things further this time as is the rather obvious point that we are heading for a global recession where people are going to need and want to access their cash and will (already are in a lot of cases) ask questions when they can't get it. Energy crisis? Are countries really going to want bitcoin miners using precious energy that could be doing useful stuff like powering hospitals? Green issues? The list of things in the "con" column grows and grows. I don't think regulators can (or will) stay asleep at the wheel much longer.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 10:54:30 GMT 1
This just 2017/2018 round again. Bitcoin hit a high, crashed, took the rest back down with it. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by? Maybe, maybe not. Even at its peak the market cap of the crypto market as a whole was far smaller than it is now. Tether for example ballooned from $1bn to $80bn+ at one point earlier this year (still at $70bn+ now). At this point there's murmurings of systemic risk. There's far more regulatory interest now and the introduction of crypto derivative type products (your algorithmic coins like terra, steth etc) and crypto financial services (like DeFi etc) is compounding things further this time as is the rather obvious point that we are heading for a global recession where people are going to need and want to access their cash and will (already are in a lot of cases) ask questions when they can't get it. Energy crisis? Are countries really going to want bitcoin miners using precious energy that could be doing useful stuff like powering hospitals? Green issues? The list of things in the "con" column grows and grows. I don't think regulators can (or will) stay asleep at the wheel much longer. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by?
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Post by blazey on Jun 13, 2022 11:17:29 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it. Great inflation hedge 👍 I read a really interesting article the other week about the increasing correlation between crypto currencies and technology stocks. It really does beg the question... what’s the point? At least you can hold your tech stocks in a tax advantaged account....
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Post by staffordshrew on Jun 13, 2022 11:17:30 GMT 1
Maybe, maybe not. Even at its peak the market cap of the crypto market as a whole was far smaller than it is now. Tether for example ballooned from $1bn to $80bn+ at one point earlier this year (still at $70bn+ now). At this point there's murmurings of systemic risk. There's far more regulatory interest now and the introduction of crypto derivative type products (your algorithmic coins like terra, steth etc) and crypto financial services (like DeFi etc) is compounding things further this time as is the rather obvious point that we are heading for a global recession where people are going to need and want to access their cash and will (already are in a lot of cases) ask questions when they can't get it. Energy crisis? Are countries really going to want bitcoin miners using precious energy that could be doing useful stuff like powering hospitals? Green issues? The list of things in the "con" column grows and grows. I don't think regulators can (or will) stay asleep at the wheel much longer. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by? Ultimately the leader of this great country, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a man of the highest integrity. Er, run for the hills
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Post by staffordshrew on Jun 13, 2022 11:26:14 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it. Great inflation hedge 👍 I read a really interesting article the other week about the increasing correlation between crypto currencies and technology stocks. It really does beg the question... what’s the point? At least you can hold your tech stocks in a tax advantaged account.... Would I be right to think Crypto is roughly the same sort of investment as gold, but an online version? Has a value which fluctuates up and down, but doesn't bring in any dividends/income whilst held.
Crypto has wilder fluctuations, up and down, but gold is the traditional rabbit hole for money in times of financial uncertainty.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 11:33:38 GMT 1
Maybe, maybe not. Even at its peak the market cap of the crypto market as a whole was far smaller than it is now. Tether for example ballooned from $1bn to $80bn+ at one point earlier this year (still at $70bn+ now). At this point there's murmurings of systemic risk. There's far more regulatory interest now and the introduction of crypto derivative type products (your algorithmic coins like terra, steth etc) and crypto financial services (like DeFi etc) is compounding things further this time as is the rather obvious point that we are heading for a global recession where people are going to need and want to access their cash and will (already are in a lot of cases) ask questions when they can't get it. Energy crisis? Are countries really going to want bitcoin miners using precious energy that could be doing useful stuff like powering hospitals? Green issues? The list of things in the "con" column grows and grows. I don't think regulators can (or will) stay asleep at the wheel much longer. Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by? This is a common red herring from cryptobros. Look at 2008 and ask yourself what happened to the banks. Will tether or whatever other monopoly money get a similar bailout? That's what the pound in my pocket is backed by.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 11:35:26 GMT 1
Question, what is the pound note in your pocket backed by? This is a common red herring from cryptobros. Look at 2008 and ask yourself what happened to the banks. Will tether or whatever other monopoly money get a similar bailout? That's what the pound in my pocket is backed by. In a round about way you got there, it's backed by nothing. Used to be backed by silver, gold, but now effectively worthless and back by nothing.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 11:39:43 GMT 1
Bitcoin down closer to £20k/$25k today, taking other cryptos with it. Great inflation hedge 👍 I read a really interesting article the other week about the increasing correlation between crypto currencies and technology stocks. It really does beg the question... what’s the point? At least you can hold your tech stocks in a tax advantaged account.... At least you're also buying a company that actually, y'know, does something other than generate random strings of numbers or speculate on those random strings of numbers (oh, and destroy the environment in the process). Tbh though, it goes further than that in some cases. Look at Tesla stock, the mania around it and the less than ethical behaviour of elon musk. No surprise to see its all tied up with crypto. Microstrategy took on billions in real debt to buy more bitcoin. Grayscale, Bitnile etc. Tech bros are increasingly learning tricks from crypto bros and applying them to the "tech" world. This is why regulators are getting increasingly jumpy about "contamination". Crypto bros don't seem to follow though.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 11:45:56 GMT 1
I read a really interesting article the other week about the increasing correlation between crypto currencies and technology stocks. It really does beg the question... what’s the point? At least you can hold your tech stocks in a tax advantaged account.... At least you're also buying a company that actually, y'know, does something other than generate random strings of numbers or speculate on those random strings of numbers (oh, and destroy the environment in the process). Tbh though, it goes further than that in some cases. Look at Tesla stock, the mania around it and the less than ethical behaviour of elon musk. No surprise to see its all tied up with crypto. Microstrategy took on billions in real debt to buy more bitcoin. Grayscale, Bitnile etc. Tech bros are increasingly learning tricks from crypto bros and applying them to the "tech" world. This is why regulators are getting increasingly jumpy about "contamination". Crypto bros don't seem to follow though. Those in the crypto space definitely don't claim Elon Musk, in fact nobody wants him anywhere near it. Same with Tesla and what he did with Doge, just meaningless pumping and hype.
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Post by staffordshrew on Jun 13, 2022 11:48:43 GMT 1
If I could time travel back to when these things were cheap, I would rather now be holding shares in something like Microsoft or Apple than Crypto. Not only would the shares be worth a shed load of money, there would also be a regular dividend stream.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 11:52:58 GMT 1
This is a common red herring from cryptobros. Look at 2008 and ask yourself what happened to the banks. Will tether or whatever other monopoly money get a similar bailout? That's what the pound in my pocket is backed by. In a round about way you got there, it's backed by nothing. Used to be backed by silver, gold, but now effectively worthless and back by nothing. I disagree. The pound is ultimately backed by the creditworthiness of one of the ten largest economies globally. Come back to me when the UK can't sell its bonds (unlike El Salvador and it's "bitcoin bonds" which mysteriously never went ahead). Tether on the other hand is backed by hot air and bulls**t. Nobody is going to bail it out, just like nobody bailed out Terra when the 3rd fecking largest crypto by market cap collapsed into nothing. How you can watch that happen and then go "but the pound" is beyond me.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 11:55:08 GMT 1
At least you're also buying a company that actually, y'know, does something other than generate random strings of numbers or speculate on those random strings of numbers (oh, and destroy the environment in the process). Tbh though, it goes further than that in some cases. Look at Tesla stock, the mania around it and the less than ethical behaviour of elon musk. No surprise to see its all tied up with crypto. Microstrategy took on billions in real debt to buy more bitcoin. Grayscale, Bitnile etc. Tech bros are increasingly learning tricks from crypto bros and applying them to the "tech" world. This is why regulators are getting increasingly jumpy about "contamination". Crypto bros don't seem to follow though. Those in the crypto space definitely don't claim Elon Musk, in fact nobody wants him anywhere near it. Same with Tesla and what he did with Doge, just meaningless pumping and hype. This is the problem though, the "crypto space" has no say over what done body like Elon Musk does, hence why 90% of "the crypto space" is gullible muppets and sharks feeding off them even allowing for the minority of true believers. "Meaningless pumping and hype" is a great description of the whole thing.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 11:56:56 GMT 1
If I could time travel back to when these things were cheap, I would rather now be holding shares in something like Microsoft or Apple than Crypto. Not only would the shares be worth a shed load of money, there would also be a regular dividend stream. Even if you could go back to 2009 and start mining crypto, would you have made it through the multiple scams and other pitfalls to now or would you have just sold when it hit $10 or $100, even that an astronomical gain? Pointless worrying about this sort of thing.
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Post by blazey on Jun 13, 2022 11:59:11 GMT 1
I read a really interesting article the other week about the increasing correlation between crypto currencies and technology stocks. It really does beg the question... what’s the point? At least you can hold your tech stocks in a tax advantaged account.... Would I be right to think Crypto is roughly the same sort of investment as gold, but an online version? Has a value which fluctuates up and down, but doesn't bring in any dividends/income whilst held.
Crypto has wilder fluctuations, up and down, but gold is the traditional rabbit hole for money in times of financial uncertainty. That’s more or less how I’d frame it too - a speculative instrument with no natural return, and a value based only on sentiment. At least the shiny metallic stuff has some industrial purposes or can be worn around your neck!
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 12:01:53 GMT 1
Would I be right to think Crypto is roughly the same sort of investment as gold, but an online version? Has a value which fluctuates up and down, but doesn't bring in any dividends/income whilst held.
Crypto has wilder fluctuations, up and down, but gold is the traditional rabbit hole for money in times of financial uncertainty. That’s more or less how I’d frame it too - a speculative instrument with no natural return, and a value based only on sentiment. At least the shiny metallic stuff has some industrial purposes or can be worn around your neck! Value based on sentiment, which is often manipulated by scams due to the totally unregulated nature of the market.
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Post by blazey on Jun 13, 2022 12:08:27 GMT 1
That’s more or less how I’d frame it too - a speculative instrument with no natural return, and a value based only on sentiment. At least the shiny metallic stuff has some industrial purposes or can be worn around your neck! Value based on sentiment, which is often manipulated by scams due to the totally unregulated nature of the market. There’s a certain irony at the moment that dinosaur FTSE100 stocks and value shares are a better store of wealth than crypto
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 12:09:56 GMT 1
I liked this snippet from a recent article:
"The biggest detractors have come around. 9 out of 10 Central Banks are exploring digital currencies and analysts at JP Morgan have dubbed crypto a “preferred alternative asset class.” Facebook rebranded to Meta, Twitter, Spotify, TikTok and Instagram are integrating NFTs, while Google and Microsoft are each dipping their toes into Web3."
I'm not stupid, I see that crypto has a horrendous amount of flaws, that's why I like some projects and massively dislike/don't trust others. I suppose it's like anything, just because you have an interest in something doesn't mean you have to adore every aspect of it; there's plenty I dislike about football for instance.
We'll see what happen in time, be a great thread to revisit in 2030.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 17:09:59 GMT 1
I liked this snippet from a recent article: "The biggest detractors have come around. 9 out of 10 Central Banks are exploring digital currencies and analysts at JP Morgan have dubbed crypto a “preferred alternative asset class.” Facebook rebranded to Meta, Twitter, Spotify, TikTok and Instagram are integrating NFTs, while Google and Microsoft are each dipping their toes into Web3."I'm not stupid, I see that crypto has a horrendous amount of flaws, that's why I like some projects and massively dislike/don't trust others. I suppose it's like anything, just because you have an interest in something doesn't mean you have to adore every aspect of it; there's plenty I dislike about football for instance. We'll see what happen in time, be a great thread to revisit in 2030. Source for that article? Notice you didn't provide a link. I'm aware that JP Morgan believe bitcoin is undervalued, not sure that means anything more than they believe it might make sense to hold a portion if your portfolio in it in the same way most managers will put some assets in riskier sectors. " digital currencies" is not the same thing as crypto and shouldn't be confused. As for web 3/NFTs, the whole thing is a farce. Meta may very well be interested in it, the market appears to think otherwise give the nosedive in their stock price. Ditto gaming companies; the shoehorning of NFTs into gaming culture has been near universally panned by actual consumers. On a related note, bitcoin's Market Cap to Realised Cap ratio is now less than 1 apparently (so the value of all bitcoins in circulation is less than the total price paid for them) meaning, on average, everyone holding bitcoin is on the red. It typically hasn't gone much lower than 1 in the past. We are now literally at the crossroads where it will either stick around for a bit then break out again or keep plummeting. If it dips much further I think you're looking at game over.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 13, 2022 17:18:56 GMT 1
I liked this snippet from a recent article: "The biggest detractors have come around. 9 out of 10 Central Banks are exploring digital currencies and analysts at JP Morgan have dubbed crypto a “preferred alternative asset class.” Facebook rebranded to Meta, Twitter, Spotify, TikTok and Instagram are integrating NFTs, while Google and Microsoft are each dipping their toes into Web3."I'm not stupid, I see that crypto has a horrendous amount of flaws, that's why I like some projects and massively dislike/don't trust others. I suppose it's like anything, just because you have an interest in something doesn't mean you have to adore every aspect of it; there's plenty I dislike about football for instance. We'll see what happen in time, be a great thread to revisit in 2030. Source for that article? Notice you didn't provide a link. I'm aware that JP Morgan believe bitcoin is undervalued, not sure that means anything more than they believe it might make sense to hold a portion if your portfolio in it in the same way most managers will put some assets in riskier sectors. " digital currencies" is not the same thing as crypto and shouldn't be confused. As for web 3/NFTs, the whole thing is a farce. Meta may very well be interested in it, the market appears to think otherwise give the nosedive in their stock price. Ditto gaming companies; the shoehorning of NFTs into gaming culture has been near universally panned by actual consumers. On a related note, bitcoin's Market Cap to Realised Cap ratio is now less than 1 apparently (so the value of all bitcoins in circulation is less than the total price paid for them) meaning, on average, everyone holding bitcoin is on the red. It typically hasn't gone much lower than 1 in the past. We are now literally at the crossroads where it will either stick around for a bit then break out again or keep plummeting. If it dips much further I think you're looking at game over. It was a Coinbase article, just found it interesting. If you genuinely think crypto will be gone/game over, you're crazy. It might be dipping, as is practically everything else in the world; but it's never going fully. JP Morgan are the same people who slammed Bitcoin at $25,000 then loaded up massively when it dipped around Covid.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 13, 2022 17:25:37 GMT 1
Source for that article? Notice you didn't provide a link. I'm aware that JP Morgan believe bitcoin is undervalued, not sure that means anything more than they believe it might make sense to hold a portion if your portfolio in it in the same way most managers will put some assets in riskier sectors. " digital currencies" is not the same thing as crypto and shouldn't be confused. As for web 3/NFTs, the whole thing is a farce. Meta may very well be interested in it, the market appears to think otherwise give the nosedive in their stock price. Ditto gaming companies; the shoehorning of NFTs into gaming culture has been near universally panned by actual consumers. On a related note, bitcoin's Market Cap to Realised Cap ratio is now less than 1 apparently (so the value of all bitcoins in circulation is less than the total price paid for them) meaning, on average, everyone holding bitcoin is on the red. It typically hasn't gone much lower than 1 in the past. We are now literally at the crossroads where it will either stick around for a bit then break out again or keep plummeting. If it dips much further I think you're looking at game over. It was a Coinbase article, just found it interesting. If you genuinely think crypto will be gone/game over, you're crazy. It might be dipping, as is practically everything else in the world; but it's never going fully. JP Morgan are the same people who slammed Bitcoin at $25,000 then loaded up massively when it dipped around Covid. 😅 coinbase, course it was. You can tell by the references to Web3 as something anyone who isn't a con artist and has an iq above room temperature would take seriously. You understand that investment banks actively seek out risk right? The fact that JP Morgan thinks it might be worth chucking a couple of quid at is not the same as them endorsing it. It's them saying they're happy to have a gamble on it in a controlled way. If you're of a gambling bent, now might be a good time to buy actually, seems like it's already bouncing as people cotton on to the MVRV thing. (Note; this is not financial advice. The fact the ratio is below 1 is a totally arbitrary buy point unless you're a superstitious bitcoiner and there's a very good chance the whole thing will be regulated out of existence shortly. Buyer beware).
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 18, 2022 10:14:09 GMT 1
Btc breaks $19k this morning. $19,511 is the price a lot of people have been watching as it's the previous cycle high and historically bitcoin has never fallen below that during "crypto winter" whereas this morning it hit a massive sell wall and dipped 5 or 6 percent pretty much in an instant.
Genuine uncharted territory here.
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Post by Chief Inspector Swan on Jun 18, 2022 10:44:37 GMT 1
It’s those with long positions in XRP, Shiba Inu, Polygon, Clover Finance, Algorand and Tezos that I feel desperately sorry for.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 18, 2022 11:07:48 GMT 1
It’s those with long positions in XRP, Shiba Inu, Polygon, Clover Finance, Algorand and Tezos that I feel desperately sorry for. It's those with no positions that I feel desperately sorry for.
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Post by frankwellshrews on Jun 18, 2022 21:36:46 GMT 1
Really not feeling very sorry for myself watching bitcoin crash through the $18k barrier to be honest. Thought it would at least circle the bowl for a bit but no, it's headed straight down the toilet by the looks of things.
I do feel really sorry for the people who've been conned in to making risky financial decisions with money they can't afford to lose in "the crypto space" though. Concerning number of suicide hotline numbers being shared in crypto land right now.
I'm also generally sorry for the environmental damage done over this. What an utterly colossal waste.
There's been a general dereliction of duty by mainstream media on this. All apart from the FT have been asleep at the wheel, if not actively promoting these things.
Messrs Sunak and Hancock need to take a long hard look at themselves also, as does Matt Damon.
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Post by martinshrew on Jun 18, 2022 22:57:44 GMT 1
Really not feeling very sorry for myself watching bitcoin crash through the $18k barrier to be honest. Thought it would at least circle the bowl for a bit but no, it's headed straight down the toilet by the looks of things. I do feel really sorry for the people who've been conned in to making risky financial decisions with money they can't afford to lose in "the crypto space" though. Concerning number of suicide hotline numbers being shared in crypto land right now. I'm also generally sorry for the environmental damage done over this. What an utterly colossal waste. There's been a general dereliction of duty by mainstream media on this. All apart from the FT have been asleep at the wheel, if not actively promoting these things. Messrs Sunak and Hancock need to take a long hard look at themselves also, as does Matt Damon. With all due respect, that's the most over the top, sensationalised post I've seen probably ever seen.
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