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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 9:28:41 GMT 1
A Guardian article which illustrates a classic example of obfuscation. www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/eu-procurement-johnson-priorities-coronavirus-pandemicThe hasty retraction letter by Sir Simon McDonald on Tuesday evening was extraordinary. If nothing else, it confirms the incredible sensitivities in government at the moment about its handling of the pandemic. The letter also needs to be read carefully. The key sentence nevertheless appears to be this one: “Ministers were not briefed by our mission in Brussels about the scheme and a political decision was not taken on whether or not to participate. The more you read the letter, the more questions it raises. The key point is that, in early February, while the UK’s Brussels mission did not brief ministers – the denial in the letter – about the EU scheme, the Brussels mission clearly did brief departmental civil servants. In practice, that means that Brussels briefed the Foreign Office and the Department of Health and Social Care about the ventilator procurement scheme, presumably at a senior level, in detail and as an issue requiring priority attention. Those civil servants will then have briefed their ministers, including the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, and the health secretary, Matt Hancock. So ministers were indeed briefed, only not by “our mission in Brussels”. In other words, the ministers knew about the scheme and knew they could take part in it. The political decision not to join the EU procurement process reflected what was uppermost in Johnson’s and other minds in February. Britain, as McDonald stressed this week, had left the EU on 31 January. The Brexiters had done what they promised at the election. The national ship was being set on a course that turned its back on Europe. They weren’t interested in new post-Brexit links with EU schemes any more than they were interested in establishing such links during the transition period. Any suggestion, at this of all moments, that the UK should opt into an EU scheme on anything will have been dismissed with contempt. It was in every way a political decision. A month or so later, things – including politics – were different. When Hancock was offered a renewed chance to join another EU-wide scheme, the offer was taken up. But by then Covid-19 was a far larger reality, the UK was facing lockdown, and ministers were playing catch-up, just as they still are today. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 9:56:02 GMT 1
EU scheme a good 'un, or a damp squib, they are now saying we have done some work using the army to procure ppe. Had we started that up when asked to join the EU scheme originally as our part of a joint effort then we could have been leading Europe with an effort that could have got something done and saved us, and Europe, from a ppe shortage. Now that really would have made a political point.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 10:24:08 GMT 1
Just to cheer everyone up!
'The impact of extreme suppression means that a second peak, far higher than the first, is now a near certainty and that has major implications for how Britain must exit the lockdown if such a catastrophe is to be avoided.
Under the current suppression plan, the trajectory of the disease has changed dramatically, with the peak moving to the middle of December. Alarmingly it appears every bit as high and deadly as the unmitigated wave that the government was so keen to avoid.
Although experts believe that we have now peaked in the first wave, it is actually only a very low level of what could happen if lockdown is lifted without any means to suppress a second, far more deadly wave.
Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, who led the modelling and who sits on The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said: “There is almost no herd immunity and a very large risk of a second peak if we relax current measures without something to put in their place.”
One of the problems of Britain’s lockdown strategy is just how effective it has been.
While such compliance has been excellent at keeping the virus under control, leading to noticeable downturn in cases in the past week, it means few people are building up immunity.
In the critical Imperial Paper published on March 16, scientists warned that once restrictions were relaxed infections would inevitably begin to rise again and the bounce back would be far worse if suppression was too extreme.
“The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity,” the researchers warned.
Experts on the Government’s Sage committee now believe that only about 5 per cent of the population has been infected with the disease and that there is ‘almost no herd immunity’ in Britain.
Imperial College predicted that strict lockdown measures would be needed for at least five months, but they also warned that restrictions and widespread monitoring would have to stay in place until a vaccine was available, to prevent a second wave.
In recent weeks, journalists have questioned why the government is continuing to invest in huge numbers of intensive care beds at Nightingale Hospitals while cases are on the decline.
The possibility of a second peak is likely to be the reason.
While the current epidemic appears to have stabilised below 1,000 cases a day, modelling of a second wave suggests that it could be far higher if it is not brought under control through mass testing, contact tracing and isolation after lockdown.
A safety net of widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of those infected must be in place to ensure that cases are not allowed to rise'.
Daily Telegraph.
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 10:38:19 GMT 1
From the above (saves quoting):
If we assume getting it gives immunity. then we have no idea how many people have had it, so no idea how many have immunity.
We won't be going back to herding together again anytime soon. Effective working from home has changed things forever. Many vulnerable people would not attend a match or go in a restaurant even if they could.
We might get a vaccine. But if we don't, there is a good chance of more effective treatment strategies. Most get it mildly, if those hosoitalised can be treated fairly easily then we will have turned a killer into how HIV is now.
Nightingales will probably be used to take over from pre-existing hospitals which have a pencilled in date of 1st July to start up many outpatient services. You can't visit a Coronavirus patient in hospital so someone from Shrewsbury might as well be in Birmingham and communicating on one of Captain Tom's tablets.
Once Coronavirus cases are out of pre-existing hospitals then you can restore people's faith that it's ok to attend hospital appointments.
We will, of course, get alternating waves of infection, but we cannot remain in lockdown forever as some of our police chiefs would have us. The public have almost universally supported lockdown, the Government bit the bullet and did it, when they had to, now all we need is a firm hand on the controls to relax the rules, then tighten to flatten the peaks. It seems we will have apps and statistical modelling improving all the time to influence using the controls.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 23, 2020 10:41:16 GMT 1
qz.com/1841177/taiwan-contained-covid-10-but-simulated-a-lockdown-anyway/taiwan has had no shortage of essential equipment , medication or PPE due to them learning from the sars pandemic of 2004. they manufactuer there own essential equipment, all hospitals have 3 months supply of medication and PPE. large scale testing and tracing and high tech monitoring and contact tracing has enabled this island with a population of 24 million .Taiwan has now had a number of days with zero new cases nad hopes to start lifting restrictions in may. from the mail, menwhile in the uk this has been restatred in a bid to contain the virus , how utterly shambolic and cluless! "Council staff and civil servants will be among thousands drafted in to help Contact tracing was abandoned a month ago as ministers focused on testing Claims three-tier tracing system could be in place before next review on May 7" Taiwan did everything we did not , in contrast the uk was complacent despite plenty of warning we did not ensure we had enough PPE or ventilators we have not followed WHO guidlines and seem incapable of mass testing and we still have not stopped flights into the uk and quickly failed to trace cases. “Even though Taiwan had two consecutive days of zero cases, we can’t take the situation lightly. We have to remain vigilant, because the finish line in the fight against the pandemic is still far off,” said Weiwei Chiang, a spokesperson for the New Taipei City mayor." "Luckily, this was just a simulation. New Taipei City, the municipality surrounding Taiwan’s capital, today hosted an hour-long tabletop exercise to simulate government responses in the event of a widespread community outbreak. Sixteen different government offices, as well as the military, took part in the exercise, with officials practicing how they would implement measures and coordinate across departments. They simulated lockdown measures like stepped-up travel restrictions and identity checks, widespread school and business closures, and policies to ensure adequate food supplies at wholesale markets to prevent shortages on store shelves." "But Taiwan is by no means out of the woods yet. Despite its low case growth last week, 21 navy sailors were reported yesterday to have tested positive following a visit to the small Pacific island state of Palau last month. The sailors reportedly travelled to dozens of locations across 10 counties in Taiwan before testing positive, prompting fears of community transmission. The government sent text messages to 200,000 people who had been to those locations, reminding them to monitor their health conditions closely, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency."
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 10:46:52 GMT 1
December - Christmas break after election.
January - Holiday in Caribbean.
February - 2 weeks holiday in Chevening House.
March - Sick.
April - Sick.
June - Paternity leave.
So, looks like Boris has to win his 'war' in May.
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Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Apr 23, 2020 10:51:25 GMT 1
Shane Broseley et al need to stop reading the Guardian, which in recent weeks is acting purely to harm the collective mental health of the nation to a greater degree than any covid-19 outbreak. Now we know what type of inspector you are, you’re in the Thought Police. |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 10:54:31 GMT 1
December - Christmas break after election. January - Holiday in Caribbean. February - 2 weeks holiday in Chevening House. March - Sick. April - Sick. June - Paternity leave. So, looks like Boris has to win his 'war' in May. There's a man who has his priorities right! Have to get back in sometime though to take all the credit. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 11:08:18 GMT 1
I like this analogy made by a Telegraph reader.
'You can hide from a swarm of wasps by jumping in a lake, but when you come up for air the wasps are still there. If you don't come up for air you will die anyway, just like the economy and everything that depends on it'.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 11:31:38 GMT 1
The Government is preparing to recruit tens of thousand civil servants, municipal workers and volunteers as part of efforts to reach every new case after social distancing measures are relaxed, for which will rely partly on a smartphone app and partly on manual contact tracing.
Users of the app would get an alert telling them to self-isolate if anyone they came into close contact with is diagnosed with Covid-19 and could also be sent home testing kits. Mr Hancock said: “We are ramping up our testing capacity and our capacity for contact tracing in a matter of weeks, and we’ll have it ready to make sure that we can use that as and when the incidence of transmission comes down.
“The effectiveness of test, track and trace to keep the reproductive rate of this virus down is determined by the incidence in the community and our goal is to get to a point where we can test, track and trace everybody who needs it.
Meanwhile, Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, who sits on Sage, said it was likely that only 5 per cent of the population had contracted the virus and warned that the country would be vulnerable to a new peak when lockdown ended.
“There is almost no herd immunity and a very large risk of a second peak if we relax current measures without something to put in their place,” he told The Telegraph.
“Which is why I think large scale community testing and contact tracing – akin to what South Korea are doing – is likely to be vital.”
Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted comes to mind here.
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Post by Chief Inspector Swan on Apr 23, 2020 11:50:42 GMT 1
The only thing harming my mental health is your posts . Well said. #bekind |
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Post by Chief Inspector Swan on Apr 23, 2020 11:53:12 GMT 1
Just to cheer everyone up! 'The impact of extreme suppression means that a second peak, far higher than the first, is now a near certainty and that has major implications for how Britain must exit the lockdown if such a catastrophe is to be avoided. Under the current suppression plan, the trajectory of the disease has changed dramatically, with the peak moving to the middle of December. Alarmingly it appears every bit as high and deadly as the unmitigated wave that the government was so keen to avoid. Although experts believe that we have now peaked in the first wave, it is actually only a very low level of what could happen if lockdown is lifted without any means to suppress a second, far more deadly wave. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, who led the modelling and who sits on The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said: “There is almost no herd immunity and a very large risk of a second peak if we relax current measures without something to put in their place.” One of the problems of Britain’s lockdown strategy is just how effective it has been. While such compliance has been excellent at keeping the virus under control, leading to noticeable downturn in cases in the past week, it means few people are building up immunity. In the critical Imperial Paper published on March 16, scientists warned that once restrictions were relaxed infections would inevitably begin to rise again and the bounce back would be far worse if suppression was too extreme. “The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity,” the researchers warned. Experts on the Government’s Sage committee now believe that only about 5 per cent of the population has been infected with the disease and that there is ‘almost no herd immunity’ in Britain. Imperial College predicted that strict lockdown measures would be needed for at least five months, but they also warned that restrictions and widespread monitoring would have to stay in place until a vaccine was available, to prevent a second wave. In recent weeks, journalists have questioned why the government is continuing to invest in huge numbers of intensive care beds at Nightingale Hospitals while cases are on the decline. The possibility of a second peak is likely to be the reason. While the current epidemic appears to have stabilised below 1,000 cases a day, modelling of a second wave suggests that it could be far higher if it is not brought under control through mass testing, contact tracing and isolation after lockdown. A safety net of widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of those infected must be in place to ensure that cases are not allowed to rise'. Daily Telegraph. So now the Government’s measures to lockdown have been too good? Makes a change to them not being good enough, as trailed exclusively on this thread over recent weeks. |
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Post by shrewder on Apr 23, 2020 11:59:08 GMT 1
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 12:07:27 GMT 1
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 12:37:56 GMT 1
Just to cheer everyone up! 'The impact of extreme suppression means that a second peak, far higher than the first, is now a near certainty and that has major implications for how Britain must exit the lockdown if such a catastrophe is to be avoided. Under the current suppression plan, the trajectory of the disease has changed dramatically, with the peak moving to the middle of December. Alarmingly it appears every bit as high and deadly as the unmitigated wave that the government was so keen to avoid. Although experts believe that we have now peaked in the first wave, it is actually only a very low level of what could happen if lockdown is lifted without any means to suppress a second, far more deadly wave. Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, who led the modelling and who sits on The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said: “There is almost no herd immunity and a very large risk of a second peak if we relax current measures without something to put in their place.” One of the problems of Britain’s lockdown strategy is just how effective it has been. While such compliance has been excellent at keeping the virus under control, leading to noticeable downturn in cases in the past week, it means few people are building up immunity. In the critical Imperial Paper published on March 16, scientists warned that once restrictions were relaxed infections would inevitably begin to rise again and the bounce back would be far worse if suppression was too extreme. “The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity,” the researchers warned. Experts on the Government’s Sage committee now believe that only about 5 per cent of the population has been infected with the disease and that there is ‘almost no herd immunity’ in Britain. Imperial College predicted that strict lockdown measures would be needed for at least five months, but they also warned that restrictions and widespread monitoring would have to stay in place until a vaccine was available, to prevent a second wave. In recent weeks, journalists have questioned why the government is continuing to invest in huge numbers of intensive care beds at Nightingale Hospitals while cases are on the decline. The possibility of a second peak is likely to be the reason. While the current epidemic appears to have stabilised below 1,000 cases a day, modelling of a second wave suggests that it could be far higher if it is not brought under control through mass testing, contact tracing and isolation after lockdown. A safety net of widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of those infected must be in place to ensure that cases are not allowed to rise'. Daily Telegraph. So now the Government’s measures to lockdown have been too good? Makes a change to them not being good enough, as trailed exclusively on this thread over recent weeks. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't it you that wanted the tightest of lockdowns with draconian police powers? |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 12:51:05 GMT 1
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 23, 2020 13:00:15 GMT 1
The Conservative Government knows success is achieved by keeping things simple and not declaring policy details to the public - it's how they got elected. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 23, 2020 13:07:09 GMT 1
The Conservative Government knows success is achieved by keeping things simple and not declaring policy details to the public - it's how they got elected. Yeah, the Tories learnt the hard way not to mention too many policy details to the public. Nowadays, Boris hides behind mantras. Not that 'strong and stable' worked too well for May! No Tory needs reminding what was the point, during the campaign of 2017, when it all started going wrong. The launch of the manifesto. A document containing the so-called dementia tax: a policy that might almost have been designed to drive away the Conservative party’s core vote. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2020 13:24:54 GMT 1
I always try to but then I read your posts and just can’t help me self . Be kind indeed . I can just imagine you posting your response to mine , with a bloody great grin on your face . Keep on with your idiotic , surreal posts and I will respond accordingly . You know you like the banter , that’s why you do it . I wonder what you will come up with next ? |
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 23, 2020 14:06:17 GMT 1
www.unicef.org/coronavirus/covid-19UNICEF is doing some brlliant work helping the most vunerable and most disadvantaged. "The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has upended the lives of children and their families as health systems buckle, borders close, and schools and businesses As COVID-19 has spread, so has misinformation – fueling discrimination and stigma. UNICEF is working with health experts to promote facts over fear, and bringing trustworthy guidance to parents, caregivers and educators. We’re on the ground in more than 190 countries, partnering with front-line responders to keep children healthy and learning, protected from sickness and violence, no matter who they are or where they live." www.who.int/news-room/detail/01-03-2020-un-releases-us-15-million-to-help-vulnerable-countries-battle-the-spread-of-the-coronavirusThe UN funding has been released to the WHO and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). It will fund essential activities including monitoring the spread of the virus, investigating cases, and the operation of national laboratories.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 23, 2020 14:11:22 GMT 1
www.shropshirestar.com/sport/football/shrewsbury-town-fc/2020/04/23/david-moyes-swaps-dugout-for-delivery-driving/" david Moyes swapped the dugout for delivery boxes stuffed with fruit and vegetables as the West Ham manager pitched in to help his community during the coronavirus lockdown." "Former Shrewsbury defender Moyes found positive use of free time at his Lytham home in Lancashire, spending four days behind the wheel dishing out essential food to those in need after spotting a notice requesting volunteers. The Scot, who has agreed to a 30 per cent pay cut, enjoyed his brief change of career and admitted to receiving some stick from old friends, as well as an unexpected tip on the side from a none-the-wiser elderly customer."
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Post by SeanBroseley on Apr 23, 2020 15:32:35 GMT 1
The second peak will be higher than the first peak if the response is to take it on the chin. Just as the first would have been higher.
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Post by zenfootball2 on Apr 23, 2020 21:52:13 GMT 1
the goverment are going to test, track and trace cornoavirus victims in a prelude to ending lockdown, somthing taiwan was doing from february!
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Post by SeanBroseley on Apr 23, 2020 22:34:35 GMT 1
Compulsory mask wearing in public next. You love to see it.
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Post by salop27 on Apr 23, 2020 23:20:07 GMT 1
There are not enough suitable masks anywhere in the world for everyone to wear one when lockdown ends.
Masks would bring there own problems. They need to be put on properly, taken off properly and disposed of properly with plenty of hand gel/hand washing.
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Post by northwestman on Apr 24, 2020 9:05:56 GMT 1
There are not enough suitable masks anywhere in the world for everyone to wear one when lockdown ends. Masks would bring there own problems. They need to be put on properly, taken off properly and disposed of properly with plenty of hand gel/hand washing. And how do you drink a pint with a mask on? Not a problem anyone will be having any time soon mind you, as the hotel and catering trade is right at the back of the queue with regards to being released from lockdown, by which time I'd imagine quite a few pubs will have gone bust. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 24, 2020 11:02:37 GMT 1
There are not enough suitable masks anywhere in the world for everyone to wear one when lockdown ends. Masks would bring there own problems. They need to be put on properly, taken off properly and disposed of properly with plenty of hand gel/hand washing. And how do you drink a pint with a mask on? Not a problem anyone will be having any time soon mind you, as the hotel and catering trade is right at the back of the queue with regards to being released from lockdown, by which time I'd imagine quite a few pubs will have gone bust. They'll probably be bought up by the Chinese and converted into restaurants and takeaways! |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 24, 2020 12:45:51 GMT 1
And how do you drink a pint with a mask on? Not a problem anyone will be having any time soon mind you, as the hotel and catering trade is right at the back of the queue with regards to being released from lockdown, by which time I'd imagine quite a few pubs will have gone bust. They'll probably be bought up by the Chinese and converted into restaurants and takeaways! That raises an interesting scenario, pubs with an off sales counter and boozing, socially distanced, in the beer garden on a sunny summer evening, or in the car (designated driver on soft drinks, of course) in the pub car park. Small restaurants scrambling to set themselves up as takeaways or trying to give you a restaurant experience without being close to others. One or two of those sit in the car and watch cinema screenings being set up, etc. |
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Post by northwestman on Apr 24, 2020 12:52:19 GMT 1
They'll probably be bought up by the Chinese and converted into restaurants and takeaways! That raises an interesting scenario, pubs with an off sales counter and boozing, socially distanced, in the beer garden on a sunny summer evening, or in the car (designated driver on soft drinks, of course) in the pub car park. Small restaurants scrambling to set themselves up as takeaways or trying to give you a restaurant experience without being close to others. One or two of those sit in the car and watch cinema screenings beging set up, etc. Some of the pubs I know could easily organise social distancing inside as well. Certainly in the day. Just a question of selecting the appropriate time and avoiding Friday and Saturday nights! |
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Post by staffordshrew on Apr 24, 2020 13:01:57 GMT 1
That raises an interesting scenario, pubs with an off sales counter and boozing, socially distanced, in the beer garden on a sunny summer evening, or in the car (designated driver on soft drinks, of course) in the pub car park. Small restaurants scrambling to set themselves up as takeaways or trying to give you a restaurant experience without being close to others. One or two of those sit in the car and watch cinema screenings beging set up, etc. Some of the pubs I know could easily organise social distancing inside as well. Certainly in the day. Just a question of selecting the appropriate time and avoiding Friday and Saturday nights! Yes, it's just the activities that are very popular (the seaside, cinema, Saturday nights) that are going to be difficult to reintroduce. Many things will be self regulating, people have learned, some won't go, but the seaside when the sun shines and Saturday nights is when people's guard might drop. |
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