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Post by El Presidente on Nov 27, 2014 10:17:36 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2014 11:21:19 GMT 1
Good question!
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Post by atcham jack on Nov 27, 2014 12:50:22 GMT 1
I think Putin has enough problems with Ukraine. he needs all the roubles he can get for oil and gas. there is an opec meeting today dominated by arabs who, seeing a 30% cut in oil prices want to cut oil production. now Russia with sanctions against them cannot afford to cut back production. there is already a run on the rouble.
if I was putin I would be seeking peace over Ukraine and getting back to normal relations with west. he has tit for tatted on imports of our dairy products, that is why there is a glut of milk and our farmers suffer. there are no winners.
the same 30% fall in oil prices has an effect on north sea oil and reduces chancellor of exchequers income.
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 27, 2014 13:28:13 GMT 1
I think Putin has enough problems with Ukraine. he needs all the roubles he can get for oil and gas. there is an opec meeting today dominated by arabs who, seeing a 30% cut in oil prices want to cut oil production. now Russia with sanctions against them cannot afford to cut back production. there is already a run on the rouble. if I was putin I would be seeking peace over Ukraine and getting back to normal relations with west. he has tit for tatted on imports of our dairy products, that is why there is a glut of milk and our farmers suffer. there are no winners. the same 30% fall in oil prices has an effect on north sea oil and reduces chancellor of exchequers income. Iran, Saudi, Kuwait and Qatar do not wish to cut production...which will not hurt russia anyway, as they have vast resources of gas and oil already on-line. Much of that gas heating most of Europe, the access to which Putin can control. Putin has unrivalled support at home, simply because he has jailed, exiled or stifled any opposition; he has re-organised and modernised the Russian armed forces; which are not in a position of combat fatigue and general dereliction as those of the US and the UK. He has tested NATO over Ukraine, in effect this being his time to probe NATO's appetite for action and the strength to back up any action. And I think he has found NATO to be soft, and relatively anaemic.
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Post by atcham jack on Nov 27, 2014 14:57:17 GMT 1
oil has dropped from $107 a barrel to todays price $75 a barrel
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 27, 2014 16:12:11 GMT 1
oil has dropped from $107 a barrel to todays price $75 a barrel This isn't about oil prices and wider economic principles AJ. This is about Putin re-establishing the new/old USSR, by force or strong arm influence. Did you read the article?
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 28, 2014 20:16:06 GMT 1
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Post by atcham jack on Nov 28, 2014 23:41:15 GMT 1
and I think oil/gas price does come into it. oil $71 a barrel today. putin can only gee up Nato so far before there is a reaction. we were not playing with tanks for fun in Poland last week. RN put under orders today as Russian navy invaded our waters.
Economic problems with rouble is worrying for me and must be for puin.
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 29, 2014 6:45:27 GMT 1
and I think oil/gas price does come into it. oil $71 a barrel today. putin can only gee up Nato so far before there is a reaction. we were not playing with tanks for fun in Poland last week. RN put under orders today as Russian navy invaded our waters. Economic problems with rouble is worrying for me and must be for puin. The MOD massively playing down the channel crossing of russian warships; the Kremlin, hyping up their media. NATO have not played with tanks in European since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Since that time western European armies and the USA have gradually wound down their military capacity and capability whilst Russia have grown. Half of the British Army challenger 2 MBT sit in storage, mothballed. Where are the crews to operate them? Made redundant. Warrior IFV terribly out of date, awaiting mid life extension work. RN, without the ability to project air power at sea.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 9:23:23 GMT 1
Did the Russian navy not pass through international waters then? Which british water did they invade?
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Post by markglasgow on Nov 29, 2014 9:58:38 GMT 1
Russian submarines sighted just off the Swedish coast.
RAF jets scrambled more often to chase off their errant Russian counterparts.
Not entirely sure what the end game will be but these tests of rival states defences seem much more than mere exercises.
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 29, 2014 10:03:43 GMT 1
Did the Russian navy not pass through international waters then? Which british water did they invade? They did indeed. And then anchored a little while later off the coast of Normandy and, in media at least, carried out ships battle drills. It's similar in effect to us parking a few ships off the russian coast and shouting about us doing battle drills. It's muscle flexing. Its a show of force, of 'reminding' Western Europe that te bear is not hibernating.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 11:12:06 GMT 1
It’s the old world order re-establishing itself.
Moscow in its various guises has been playing this game for centuries. It’s more of a dangerous problem now because Putin is a nationalist. He evokes nationalism in Russian minorities and majorities in contested border regions just like the National Socialists did with Germans in the 30s.
I said a while back on here that the real enemy isn’t Islamic extremism, but Russia. Militarily and economically.
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Post by Matster on Nov 29, 2014 11:30:49 GMT 1
I think Putin has enough problems with Ukraine. he needs all the roubles he can get for oil and gas. there is an opec meeting today dominated by arabs who, seeing a 30% cut in oil prices want to cut oil production. now Russia with sanctions against them cannot afford to cut back production. there is already a run on the rouble. if I was putin I would be seeking peace over Ukraine and getting back to normal relations with west. he has tit for tatted on imports of our dairy products, that is why there is a glut of milk and our farmers suffer. there are no winners. the same 30% fall in oil prices has an effect on north sea oil and reduces chancellor of exchequers income. Iran, Saudi, Kuwait and Qatar do not wish to cut production...which will not hurt russia anyway, as they have vast resources of gas and oil already on-line. Much of that gas heating most of Europe, the access to which Putin can control. Putin has unrivalled support at home, simply because he has jailed, exiled or stifled any opposition; he has re-organised and modernised the Russian armed forces; which are not in a position of combat fatigue and general dereliction as those of the US and the UK. He has tested NATO over Ukraine, in effect this being his time to probe NATO's appetite for action and the strength to back up any action. And I think he has found NATO to be soft, and relatively anaemic. What happened in Ukraine showed how wet NATO can be. No one wants a fight with Russia and Putin knows that. As you say we don't have the tanks and other supportive ground troops anymore as we thought we didn't need them. Perhaps we should organise a squadron or two in the mould of the Taliban as they have beaten both the Russian and western forces.
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Post by El Presidente on Nov 29, 2014 15:18:15 GMT 1
Iran, Saudi, Kuwait and Qatar do not wish to cut production...which will not hurt russia anyway, as they have vast resources of gas and oil already on-line. Much of that gas heating most of Europe, the access to which Putin can control. Putin has unrivalled support at home, simply because he has jailed, exiled or stifled any opposition; he has re-organised and modernised the Russian armed forces; which are not in a position of combat fatigue and general dereliction as those of the US and the UK. He has tested NATO over Ukraine, in effect this being his time to probe NATO's appetite for action and the strength to back up any action. And I think he has found NATO to be soft, and relatively anaemic. What happened in Ukraine showed how wet NATO can be. No one wants a fight with Russia and Putin knows that. [br. Don't forget Georgia...
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Post by Matster on Nov 30, 2014 10:02:05 GMT 1
Yep, Georgia wasn't great either.
Moldova is voting at the moment on closer ties with Europe or Russia too.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 1, 2014 20:32:40 GMT 1
And who's have thought it...!? Barely 4 years since we scrapped our state of the art, recently upgraded maritime patrol and surveillance aircraft. Come on Putin, give it your best shot... www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30285296
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Post by venceremos on Dec 1, 2014 22:07:28 GMT 1
Business as usual, I'd agree, but nothing to be unduly concerned about. Relations with Russia might be difficult but we're not back into the cold war and I don't believe Russia is a global threat. What it is, is a nationalist state that will act/react strongly in what it considers to be its spheres of interest - and where there are significant Russian minorities, who are we to say that isn't legitimate? Isn't that how the US, the UK and other western powers behave?
Ukraine, Georgia, Estonia and other "new" states are always going to be looking over their shoulders at Russia because it will always be the dominant state in their region. That doesn't make it a threat to the world order as long as the west doesn't over-react and over-promise on what it can't deliver. The "world policeman" era is over, as we're having to accept all too slowly and painfully in the Middle East - and will in the Far East if China pushes it.
But the ideological gulf has been bridged by economics and I agree with AJ that the oil price fall is a big factor for Russia. It isn't a military state and it can't ignore its own economic needs. Putin's domestic popularity wouldn't survive economic hardship and a police state can't keep the lid held down forever - if it could, we'd still have the Soviet Union. Yes, Russia will outface the west in and around Ukraine but Russia can't compete militarily with the US and, outside its own regional interests, it doesn't present the sort of direct threat to the west that it did 50 years ago. This isn't the old world order.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 2, 2014 14:08:52 GMT 1
We all know what dictatorial leaders do in times of internal crisis...distract, deflect, justify - tell the population its someone else's fault; that the someone else is indirectly attacking the state by economic means; and that justifies use of subsequent 'action'.
Germany pre-WW2; Argentina pre-1982; are just two examples off the top of my swede.
Russian active strength military and naval/aviation is smaller than that of the US. But size is not everything. The old USSR was geared towards a lightning advance across western europe (very similar to Blitzkrieg) warfare. Hence it has a higher proportion of ground attack/multi role aircraft, and it's fleet of main battle tanks outnumber Uncle Sam by almost 3 to 1. They have the 'home turf' advantage; shorter lines of communication for supply/support; and overall, with reserves forces personnel, can put almost 700,000 more people into the field than Uncle Sam.
I agree Russia will likely not be a threat to world peace/stability, directly. It will keep itself regional. It is a threat to its westward leaning neighbours. And if China decides not to play nicely in it's territorial disputes with most of East Asia, Russia then deciding to advance to the old USSR borders would certainly be a formidable challenge to NATO. Only so many fingers, most of which are much burned and reduced, to plug a number of potential holes...
Globalisation may give us the impression we're all one happy family (almost) but it is just a thin mask veiling the very basic machinations of geo-politics.
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Post by venceremos on Dec 2, 2014 16:22:19 GMT 1
Globalisation may give us the impression we're all one happy family (almost) but it is just a thin mask veiling the very basic machinations of geo-politics. True, but there's nothing new in that. Why wouldn't we expect Russia and China to be the main military powers in their own back yards? It would surely be unrealistic to expect that "we" could be the dominant, unchallenged power everywhere. The US wouldn't tolerate any military challenge to its own dominance of the American continents (or the west generally). Globalisation may mask our differences but one of its (perhaps) few advantages is that it's also a glue that binds disparate cultures and smooths over political differences. As long as it's in our mutual interests to share in growth and development, we should be able to restrict our conflicts to regional disputes.
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Post by stuttgartershrew on Dec 2, 2014 16:54:21 GMT 1
We all know what dictatorial leaders do in times of internal crisis...distract, deflect, justify - and that justifies use of subsequent 'action'. That goes for anyone in power, dictatorial or not. Agree with venceremos, this is just same old same old. Business as usual.
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Post by venceremos on Dec 2, 2014 17:38:00 GMT 1
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30288739Putin clearly has a lot to be thinking about domestically! - recession expected in Russia in 2015 - household disposable incomes forecast to fall by 2.8% - rouble has fallen 40% this year, creating inflationary pressure on imports - oil price down almost 40% in 2014, hitting government revenues Investment and growth under real pressure in these conditions. Regional military muscle flexing might be a distraction but it won't cover the real problems. Putin needs to stabilise the economy and that requires better relations with the west.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 2, 2014 20:47:02 GMT 1
I hope you're right.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 2, 2014 21:07:47 GMT 1
Entertaining read from a very credible author: www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-dunn/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-than-terrorism_b_5184970.htmlIn the case of Russia's attack on Ukraine's sovereignty, most Western leaders and their economic advisors are in agreement that full-blown trade sanctions would hurt us almost as much as they would hurt Russia. They've tried angry diplomacy and freezing a handful of Russian billionaires' bank accounts, and that hasn't worked. And none of them has the stomach for limited or total war with Russia. So all we can do is watch on the sidelines as Putin takes a successful step toward achieving his dream of creating a Eurasian superpower.
Had the West known via its spies that Putin was planning an attack on the Ukraine, as recently as one month ago we could have done something to hopefully wrong-foot Russia's plans. Perhaps we could have urgently made the Ukraine a member of NATO, conducted joint military exercises with the Ukraine military on their soil, or deployed other preventive tactics. I'm not qualified to say; Western leaders and their advisors, generals, and other tacticians are. But I am qualified to say that said tacticians needed credible secret intelligence about Putin's intentions so that they could decide on an informed course of action. They did not have that intelligence because our spies are still out there chasing the crazies.
And while that's happening, we face the prospect of the unexpected assault from rogue states. Today's state threats are Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and others. Tomorrow? Who knows?
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 5, 2014 21:24:33 GMT 1
RAF Chin Strapped (another Presidente prediction). Cheers George... www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30338659He was "so disgusted by the 'cheese sandwiches' offered as meals to the night shift, he went and broke into a pallet of aid and handed it out as it was better than what we were feeding our airmen", said the serviceman's letter. ------------------ Only 16 of the RAF's 102 Tornado GR4s meet " diamond fleet" standard, which is the aircraft fitted with all of the equipment necessary for combat. Many of the remainder are now mothballed. ------------------ Half of these top specification jets are now in Akrotiri, but Newsnight has learned that due to their age and long use, the battle to keep them airworthy requires long hours of work by ground crews, particularly on the engines. On many days, just two or three of the Tornadoes are available for missions over Iraq. ------------------ Few in the RAF doubt that II Squadron, which has been flying operations over Afghanistan, Mali, and Iraq during the past year, has been under great pressure. It was due for disbandment next spring but has been reprieved because of the need to support Operation Shader, the UK effort against IS in Iraq. ------------------ The unit has now returned to Scotland for Christmas and the MoD said its members had been given an extra week's leave, in recognition of their recent efforts.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 6, 2014 7:28:04 GMT 1
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2014 10:47:54 GMT 1
We all know what dictatorial leaders do in times of internal crisis...distract, deflect, justify - and that justifies use of subsequent 'action'. That goes for anyone in power, dictatorial or not. Agree with venceremos, this is just same old same old. Business as usual. Do you mean that Governments would fabricate stories, maybe say that we are threatened by Weapons of Mass DIstruction, to deflect from the problems they may be facing in running their own country, or even find a previously unknown Atlantic ISland that nobody knew existed before, and decide to defend it because it is ours and would, at the very least, give the current P.M. at that time a certain Churchillian status. Unbelievable, and certainly not a course of action I would expect from Governments from these fair shores.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2014 11:28:56 GMT 1
That goes for anyone in power, dictatorial or not. Agree with venceremos, this is just same old same old. Business as usual. Do you mean that Governments would fabricate stories, maybe say that we are threatened by Weapons of Mass DIstruction, to deflect from the problems they may be facing in running their own country, or even find a previously unknown Atlantic ISland that nobody knew existed before, and decide to defend it because it is ours and would, at the very least, give the current P.M. at that time a certain Churchillian status. Unbelievable, and certainly not a course of action I would expect from Governments from these fair shores. Agree with that BB, but if my memory serves Mr Blair wasn't particularly suffering problems in his own country, other than a bit of a spat with big Gordon. In fact it's fair to say that his actions, on the back of anti war protests, threatened to undermine his popularity rather than enhance it. Though it is worth pointing out to his detractors that he still went on and won a third term.
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Post by atcham jack on Dec 6, 2014 12:14:31 GMT 1
so the price of a barrel halving is affecting rouble, and Ukraine and Osborne's Economy.
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Post by El Presidente on Dec 8, 2014 23:20:19 GMT 1
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