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Post by Shrewed on Jun 7, 2010 12:33:43 GMT 1
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Post by Victoria on Jun 7, 2010 12:53:38 GMT 1
I love double dips
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 13:18:56 GMT 1
My preferred investments currently are natural resources and metals: water purification tablets and tinned food.
G20 April Communique:
"We are undertaking an unprecedented and concerted fiscal expansion, which will save or create millions of jobs which would otherwise have been destroyed, and that will, by the end of next year, amount to $5 trillion, raise output by 4 per cent, and accelerate the transition to a green economy. We are committed to deliver the scale of sustained fiscal effort necessary to restore growth.
Our central banks have also taken exceptional action. Interest rates have been cut aggressively in most countries, and our central banks have pledged to maintain expansionary policies for as long as needed and to use the full range of monetary policy instruments, including unconventional instruments, consistent with price stability
Taken together, these actions will constitute the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus and the most comprehensive support programme for the financial sector in modern times."
G20 Communique 05/06/2010
"The recent events highlight the importance of sustainable public finances and the need for our countries to put in place credible, growth-friendly measures, to deliver fiscal sustainability, differentiated for and tailored to national circumstances. Those countries with serious fiscal challenges need to accelerate the pace of consolidation. We welcome the recent announcements by some countries to reduce their deficits in 2010 and strengthen their fiscal frameworks and institutions."
The very serious problem is this: Fiscal expansion has done little to stimulate the economy because the level of debt and fear in the economy. But the fiscal expansion means that there is an increased level of government debt and fear about the ability of government to keep servicing debt. So fiscal contraction ensues.
A proportion of the fiscal expansion is QE or "QE" in the case of the European Central bank. The problem is that this increased money supply (narrow definition) has not seen an uptick in economic activity because the holders of government bonds have been banks. The banks are mainly concerned with protecting and rebuilding their balance sheets.
The fiscal contraction will bite in the real economy of public sector and private sector jobs because part of that fiscal contraction is not banks paying money back to governments.
Curtains basically.
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Post by RBA on Jun 7, 2010 13:44:07 GMT 1
interesting (if gloomy ) I enjoy your posts Sean and the links ,quotes and comparisons!
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 14:17:37 GMT 1
I referred previously to the towel being thrown in. That process has now begun. But it is only the beginning so people are still going to say there are policy options. Keynes didn't work so we'll try Milton Friedman. Milton Freidman won't work (never did) so we'll try Oliver Cromwell and so on.
6 million unemployed in the UK by the end of 2011.
To help you and yours you need to get ahead of the curve. Ask yourself:
How can I source what I need locally to survive when no one has any money and will be hoarding what they need to survive.
If you have lawn dig it up and turn it to food production so that you are ready for the switch.
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Post by Old Bucks Head on Jun 7, 2010 14:30:26 GMT 1
No. It will take years to recover from his absurd notion of "prudence".
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Post by WindsorShrew on Jun 7, 2010 16:03:13 GMT 1
Ed I don't think the question is whether Mr Brown was right or not it should be.
Where to cut and when to cut.
I was not happy with Mr Brown in the first instance refusing to even use the word "cut", and secondly his refusal to carry out a public spending review pre election thus showing he had started to at least try and turn the tide.
It may even have won him some votes, but the impression many have with Mr Brown is that he stuck his head in the sand when action was needed in a bland attempt to hide the truth.
I wonder exactly as to when Labour would have begun to cut "without putting the recovery at risk", or would they have continued to borrow. Yes theres a balance to be struck as to when and that appears to be the difference between the parties.
I imagine that we are all in for a long hard ride regardless of income.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 16:13:34 GMT 1
We voted for who was carrying out the policies in the last election not what the policies were going to be, I'm convinced of that.
The fiscal stimulus was too small to succeed because the banks were too big to fail.
How many ways and how many times do you try to revive the patient before you let him go?
Income is money. Money is debt.
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Post by Shrewed on Jun 7, 2010 16:15:46 GMT 1
I agree with you that we are all in for a long hard period and the differences between the parties was timing rather than the cuts.
However a banker earning £1m a year will feel the cuts a lot less than the single parent on £200 a week, the next few years could be a very difficult time to be in public service.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 16:20:46 GMT 1
I agree with you that we are all in for a long hard period and the differences between the parties was timing rather than the cuts. However a banker earning £1m a year will feel the cuts a lot less than the single parent on £200 a week, the next few years could be a very difficult time to be in public service. Depends on whether the banker can "time the market" and switch from a money economy to a non-money economy in time. He can't eat his investment portfolio.
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Post by Shrewed on Jun 7, 2010 16:28:26 GMT 1
Depends on whether the banker can "time the market" and switch from a money economy to a non-money economy in time. He can't eat his investment portfolio. Sean at least the banker has a choice but I do agree with you that it will be important to be self sufficient in the years to come. Step 1 set up your own green electricity generation.
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Post by mrbunny on Jun 7, 2010 17:06:46 GMT 1
Looks like i picked the right year to start growing my own fruit and veg then. Not that i'm banking on getting much this year though.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 17:10:34 GMT 1
We were asked a few days back about favourite quotes. Here's one:
"Soon, if we are not prudent, millions of people will be watching each other starve to death through expensive televisions".
Aneurin Bevan 1897-1960
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Post by Shrewed on Jun 7, 2010 17:40:14 GMT 1
We were asked a few days back about favourite quotes. Here's one: "Soon, if we are not prudent, millions of people will be watching each other starve to death through expensive televisions". Aneurin Bevan 1897-1960 That does kind of sum up today world very accurately. Equally this comment by him could be relevant over the coming years. "Freedom is the by-product of economic surplus."
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Post by monkee on Jun 7, 2010 18:12:19 GMT 1
Looks like i picked the right year to start growing my own fruit and veg then. Not that i'm banking on getting much this year though. tis easy , just stick it int ground, keep it watered and wait every time i read one of seans posts, i go outside and stick another row of seeds in!
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Post by The Shropshire Tenor on Jun 7, 2010 19:40:29 GMT 1
Looks like I may have to offer some of the unemployed work as guards on my allotment.
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Post by shrewsace on Jun 7, 2010 20:34:12 GMT 1
I'm incensed by the procession of very wealthy businessmen appearing on our TV screens preaching 'don't tax us, cut them'. And for someone who 'doesn't want to do this' and talks of 'pain' and 'tough choices', David Cameron is doing a remarkable impression of a man struggling to keep the s**t eating smirk off his face. It's a Tories wet dream to be wielding the axe with gay abandon under the pretext of 'necessary pain'. I listened to Radio Live Five and someone from a pro-cuts, right wing think-tank was fawned over, while a representative from Unison, speaking up for public services seemed to have her points dismissed by the interviewer. The left wing bias of the BBC? Yeah, right. The argument we're not getting: krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2010 21:23:46 GMT 1
I'm incensed by the procession of very wealthy businessmen appearing on our TV screens preaching 'don't tax us, cut them'. And for someone who 'doesn't want to do this' and talks of 'pain' and 'tough choices', David Cameron is doing a remarkable impression of a man struggling to keep the s**t eating smirk off his face. It's a Tories wet dream to be wielding the axe with gay abandon under the pretext of 'necessary pain'. I listened to Radio Live Five and someone from a pro-cuts, right wing think-tank was fawned over, while a representative from Unison, speaking up for public services seemed to have her points dismissed by the interviewer. The left wing bias of the BBC? Yeah, right. The argument we're not getting: krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/A voice of reasoned argument at last. In Canada, Sweden and the U.S.A.spending cuts and tax rises each, did 50% of the work. This Government hopes that 80% of the deficit reduction will be from spending cuts. As usual, the burden of these cuts is likely to fall on the least well off. All of us of a certain age have been there, done that and felt the pain. Can't remember who was in Government though?
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 7, 2010 23:17:18 GMT 1
Nice find shrewsace
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2010 23:23:45 GMT 1
of coarse Gordon was right,and as time progresses that will become more and more obvious to more and more people. Just hope they have the balls to admit it.
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Post by SeanBroseley on Jun 8, 2010 0:39:18 GMT 1
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Post by WindsorShrew on Jun 8, 2010 7:09:11 GMT 1
of coarse Gordon was right,and as time progresses that will become more and more obvious to more and more people. Just hope they have the balls to admit it. Pab, you really are the most blinkered blinker in blinkville. How can you live life to the full when your every move is driven by bias. Basically what your saying is, the best course of action was both to continue borrowing record amounts, creating record numbers of unsustainable jobs in the public sector and of course hiding the truth from the good old public. Painful times are ahead for us all, yet still those loyal to the previous government are preparing the ground so that any blame prportioned will focus on the present and not the past. Followed of course by the typical scaremongering that as it is a Conservative government it will be the "poorest" who are hit first whilst the rich walk away paying 0% taxes. Darling on Radio 4 yesterday stated "its the oldest cheapest trick in the book for a new government to blame its predecessor", well it took the previous Labour administration over 8 years not to do so. As previously stated , the coalition is a new form of Politics, in all honesty I don't feel many got what they wanted. However lets give it time and see where we are in a few years. But lets approach things with an open mind.
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Post by nicko on Jun 8, 2010 7:21:07 GMT 1
of coarse Gordon was right,and as time progresses that will become more and more obvious to more and more people. Just hope they have the balls to admit it. Pab, you really are the most blinkered blinker in blinkville. How can you live life to the full when your every move is driven by bias. Basically what your saying is, the best course of action was both to continue borrowing record amounts, creating record numbers of unsustainable jobs in the public sector and of course hiding the truth from the good old public. Painful times are ahead for us all, yet still those loyal to the previous government are preparing the ground so that any blame prportioned will focus on the present and not the past. Followed of course by the typical scaremongering that as it is a Conservative government it will be the "poorest" who are hit first whilst the rich walk away paying 0% taxes. Darling on Radio 4 yesterday stated "its the oldest cheapest trick in the book for a new government to blame its predecessor", well it took the previous Labour administration over 8 years not to do so. As previously stated , the coalition is a new form of Politics, in all honesty I don't feel many got what they wanted. However lets give it time and see where we are in a few years. But lets approach things with an open mind. Good post. And from Sean and from Shrewsace. And though the Shropshire Tenor's post may have been , he may be right seeing as allotments are being being robbed. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2199855/Allotments-thefts-rise-as-credit-crisis-causes-vegetable-crimewave.htmlAnd livestock. www.themissinglist.co.uk/police-appeal/40-chickens-stolen-from-allotment-upper-terrace-ferndale-0So not only grow your own to feed your own, but be prepared to defend your own.
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Post by froggy on Jun 8, 2010 7:32:16 GMT 1
I can see the logic in Cameron making the cuts now as we are "technically" out of the recession (by 0.01% economic growth) and therefore that puts us into the 'recovery' stage. However, I personally think that Labours option to hold back and wait to make the cuts is the best choice. We need to make sure this economy is growing and growing strong, then, whilst getting a strong economy back we should make the cuts which will be less costly and risky. The debts will continue to rise, yes, but we will be in a position where the economy is strong and we will be able to pay the debt back. But hey, i'm sure the conservatives know what they're doing, lets make savings of £6billion. That's an acceptable number to start off with, its afterall only 15% of what we owe on the interest of our debt (each year). Well done Cameron, top job =]
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Post by ambergambler on Jun 8, 2010 7:50:02 GMT 1
No. It will take years to recover from his absurd notion of "prudence". If only Andy Shaw was as Prudent........ It will take years,etc etc
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Post by theriverside on Jun 8, 2010 7:58:43 GMT 1
I can see the logic in Cameron making the cuts now as we are "technically" out of the recession (by 0.01% economic growth) and therefore that puts us into the 'recovery' stage. However, I personally think that Labours option to hold back and wait to make the cuts is the best choice. We need to make sure this economy is growing and growing strong, then, whilst getting a strong economy back we should make the cuts which will be less costly and risky. The debts will continue to rise, yes, but we will be in a position where the economy is strong and we will be able to pay the debt back. But hey, i'm sure the conservatives know what they're doing, lets make savings of £6billion. That's an acceptable number to start off with, its afterall only 15% of what we owe on the interest of our debt (each year). Well done Cameron, top job =] So in one paragraph you've disagreed with the Conservatives for cutting the defecit now, yet also criticised them for not cutting the defecit enough. Still, if you can get an extra kick into those nasty tories then at least it will help your karma on here. Classic.
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Post by froggy on Jun 8, 2010 8:01:51 GMT 1
I can see the logic in Cameron making the cuts now as we are "technically" out of the recession (by 0.01% economic growth) and therefore that puts us into the 'recovery' stage. However, I personally think that Labours option to hold back and wait to make the cuts is the best choice. We need to make sure this economy is growing and growing strong, then, whilst getting a strong economy back we should make the cuts which will be less costly and risky. The debts will continue to rise, yes, but we will be in a position where the economy is strong and we will be able to pay the debt back. But hey, i'm sure the conservatives know what they're doing, lets make savings of £6billion. That's an acceptable number to start off with, its afterall only 15% of what we owe on the interest of our debt (each year). Well done Cameron, top job =] So in one paragraph you've disagreed with the Conservatives for cutting the defecit now, yet also criticised them for not cutting the defecit enough. Still, if you can get an extra kick into those nasty tories then at least it will help your karma on here. Classic. I voted for the Tories ... I don't hate them, i just think Labour had/have a better policy on how to ressolve this.
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Post by jamo on Jun 8, 2010 8:10:23 GMT 1
But lets approach things with an open mind. Classic. Conservative Party --open mind ? Open mind-- Conservative Party ? Real conumdrum that one. Which one would you put first ? I've voted this as post of the month. Hope you win.
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Post by ThrobsBlackHat on Jun 8, 2010 8:10:56 GMT 1
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Post by RBA on Jun 8, 2010 8:52:18 GMT 1
"BUDGET CUTS, NOT TAX RISES The focus of the Canadian government was firmly on spending cuts rather than tax rises, arguing that taxes had to be kept low to enable the private sector to grow and aid the economy.
As a result, the tax burden in Canada rose by only 0.3% between 1992 and 1997.
The Conservatives view themselves as intrinsically a low-tax party.
However, with today's UK deficit being substantially higher than that in Canada back in 1992, the jury is still out on whether the coalition government can resist the temptation - or even the need - to raise some taxes. "
Rightly or wrongly according to BBC it appears Canada did it through cuts not tax rises
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